Tropical Storm Arthur begins the Atlantic hurricane season

Likely short-lived and barely a tropical storm, Arthur formed over the northwest Caribbean Sea, at noon CDT today and within an hour had already moved across the coast of Belize moving westward into the Yucatan Peninsula. Mainly a rain-maker for Central America, there is a slight chance that the remnants of Arthur could re-appear over the Bay of Campeche after crossing the Yucatan and re-form into a Tropical Storm again before moving into the Mexican mainland.


While the storm itself is of little consequence outside the small area it affects, it does signal the beginning of the 2008 Atlantic Hurricane season, which is predicted to be above average by both NOAA and tropical prediction expert Dr. William Gray of Colorado State. NOAA is calling for a 90% chance of a near or above normal season in terms of tropical activity with a 60-70% chance of 12-16 named storms, 6-9 hurricanes, and 2-5 major (Cat 3+) hurricanes (the yearly average is 11, 6 and 2, respectively). Dr. Gray predicts a "well above-average" season for 2008, calling for 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 intense hurricanes, and an nearly 70% chance that a najor hurricane (Cat 3 or higher) will strike the U.S. coastline this season. The next 6 months will tell!

Hot conditions on the way!

Yesterday sure was a nice break from the recent heat. With cloud cover hanging around in the wake of a slow-moving cold front, temps were steady in the 70-72 range all day. After several days in the upper 80s to lower 90s and a miserably humid Memorial Day weekend, it was a welcome relief!

As the clouds move out this morning, the late May sunshine will warm things up quickly with an upper-level ridge of high pressure rebuilding over the region. This will mean a return to hot weather, with a transition day today (mid 80s) and hot by tomorrow (low 90s). High temps look to remain near or above 90 through the end of the extended forecast, with the possible exception of Sunday - the only day we may see some rain or t'storms in the next 5-6 days. In fact, the middle of next week might see highs approaching 95 with morning lows only in the mid 70s in the city. Whoa!! It's too early in the year for this kind of heat!

On a separate note, Hurricane Seasons begins on Sunday and, right in time, extended range model guidance is indicating possible tropical development by mid-week in the Gulf of Mexico. See graphic below that is valid Wednesday night, June 4.

More wet weather for the next couple days...

Another rough weekend as severe weather again affected portions of the Mid-South, including high wind in the metro area. Unfortunately, there's not much of a break as another system will move into the region and stall out over the next 48 hours. Look for showers and t'storms to become likely overnight, while most of the severe weather will remain to our west over OK, TX, AR, and MO. There is a SLIGHT RISK of severe weather for portions of the Mid-South late tonight and early tomorrow. We may get a little bit of a break tomorrow, but another round of rain and storms will move in Wednesday night and early Thursday. Heavy rainfall will be a threat with this second wave. By Thursday, look for the wet weather to be moving out and perhaps a dry weekend on tap! Total rainfall over the next 48 hours could be in excess of 2.5-3.0" in many locations.

4:25pm - Tornado Watch issued

The Storm Prediction Center has issued Tornado Watch #298 for the entire Mid-South valid until midnight CDT. Storms are expected to start rapidly developing within a couple of hours as the warm front lifts through the metro area. Scattered, strong to severe, discrete cells will be likely for the next 5-6 hours until the main line of storms, likely also severe, passes through between 10pm-1am. The greatest threat of tornadoes will exist within these discrete cells, with damaging wind and hail the main threat with the squall line. See http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0298.html for more info on the Tornado Watch.

Severe Weather Discussion - 1:00pm Saturday, May 10, 2008

Things are still shaping up for a likely severe weather outbreak later today across the Mid-South. As of 12:30pm, morning clouds are breaking up over the area and temperatures are starting to climb. With enough sunshine, we'll likely reach near 80 degrees this afternoon. In addition, a strong upper-level disturbance is moving through the Plains towards the region and scattered thunderstorms are firing in response to the increased winds and dynamics over western AR and MO and eastern KS and OK (see current regional radar). As the afternoon goes on, these scattered storms will become stronger as they move east. To our south, a warm front is positioned and will begin to surge north this afternoon across the area (see forecast surface maps). As it does so, our wind will turn to a more southerly direction and moisture will increase further. It is near this warm front that storms will have the best chance of becoming super-cellular and capable of producing tornadoes. In addition, any storms that form could contain large hail (1" or larger) and high wind in excess of 60 mph.

During the evening hours, the metro area will be positioned in the warm sector - behind the northbound warm front and ahead of a strong cold front moving in from the Southern Plains. Within the warm sector, storms will continue to be scattered, but very capable of becoming severe. As the cold front moves closer, the likely scenario is that a squall line will form along or just ahead of the front and race across the region overnight. Within the line, the primary threat would be very high wind (75 mph+ possible) and large hail, but isolated tornadoes will continue to also be a threat. The timing of all of this appears to be that the warm front will move through around 5-6pm, so the severe weather threat increases around that time, and the squall line would move through between 11pm and 2am. Thus, severe weather is a distinct possibility from about 5pm until 2am.

Be sure that you take time to review your severe weather safety plan of action. That plan should include staying abreast of changing weather conditions with MemphisWeather.Net, as well as local or cable TV or radio, and preferably a NOAA All-Hazards Alert Radio. You can also sign up to receive email alerts of weather watches and warnings for the Memphis metro area by clicking on "Notification" from the Severe Weather menu on MemphisWeather.Net.

Outbreak of severe weather likely later today

The Storm Prediction Center and NWS-Memphis are forecasting an outbreak of severe weather, including possibly strong long-tracked tornadoes, for the Mid-South late this afternoon through the very early morning hours Sunday. Stay with MemphisWeather.Net and your local network and cable TV outlets for the latest on this developing severe weather scenario.

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0643 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2008

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE ARKLATEX AND MID SOUTH REGION EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STRONG TORNADOES...WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND AND VERY LARGE HAIL FROM THE ARKLATEX AND MID SOUTH REGION EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE:
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ALABAMA
MUCH OF ARKANSAS
MUCH OF GEORGIA
FAR SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
FAR WESTERN KENTUCKY
NORTHERN LOUISIANA
SOUTHERN MISSOURI
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA
WESTERN AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE
FAR EASTERN TEXAS

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES THIS AFTERNOON...EMERGING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE TODAY AND CONTINUING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION AND GULF COAST STATES OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS ALREADY IN PLACE FROM TEXAS EASTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST...AND THIS UNSTABLE AIR WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD WITH TIME AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WHILE TORNADOES...DAMAGING WIND AND VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE ANYWHERE WITHIN THE MODERATE RISK AREA...THE GREATEST THREAT FOR STRONG TORNADOES WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARKANSAS...NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND WESTERN TENNESSEE. IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT OF A FEW TORNADOES...WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...AND GEORGIA.

THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.

Severe weather outlook for Friday and Saturday

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN / MEMPHISWEATHER.NET
633 AM CDT FRI MAY 9 2008

...A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID SOUTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

...THE MEMPHIS METRO AREA HAS BEEN PLACED UNDER A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY AND MOVE INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE A WARM FRONT SURGES NORTHWARD INTO THE MID SOUTH. THIS WILL BRING A WARM...MOIST...AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...NEAR THE WARM FRONT...SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. AN ADDITIONAL LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...BETWEEN 8PM AND 2AM. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND TORNADOES. THE POTENTIAL WILL ALSO EXIST FOR A FEW STRONG TORNADOES.

ALSO BE AWARE THAT THE MID-SOUTH IS UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE ONLY ISOLATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS COULD CAUSE ANY STORM THAT FORMS TO BECOME SEVERE RAPIDLY. DAMAGING WIND...LARGE HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALL POSSIBLE DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS FROM 2-10PM TODAY.

MID-SOUTHERNERS SHOULD KEEP IN TOUCH WITH THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION CONCERNING THESE DEVELOPING SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. MEMPHISWEATHER.NET WILL KEEP YOU UPDATED ON THE LATEST EVENTS AS THEY UNFOLD.
$$

SJM/EAP

NE Mississippi twister caught on camera!

Wow! What a storm! This picture was taken by fellow weather nut Jeff W. Williams near Booneville, MS in a town called Jumpertown at 6:49pm on May 2. He is a friend of mine that owns a personal weather station that sits right where this picture was taken from - about 2 miles SE of the tornado. Later that evening, another storm with 1" hail passed overhead and damaged his station's anemometer. That's what I call too close for comfort! Jeff indicates this was his first tornado sighting and the slight blurriness in the picture is owed to his hands shaking from nervousness!

That afternoon and evening scores of storms, some supercellular, ripped through eastern Arkansas, north Mississippi, and west Tennessee, dropping several tornadoes like the one picture above. The tornado above was classified EF-1 by the National Weather Service. The biggest storm of the day produced an EF-3 twister that devastated the town of Earle, AR in northwest Crittenden County, 25nm WNW of downtown Memphis.