Large-scale storm system approaches

It's not wonder so many people are sick this time of year! The weather just can't make up its mind. After a chilly weekend with highs lingering in the lower 40s Sunday, a large-scale storm system heads towards the Mid-South to start the work week. Strong southerly wind ahead of it will pump the Gulf moisture into the region beginning today and continuing in earnest overnight as the first drops of rain fall late this evening. Wind will increase with gusts over 25 mph this afternoon and possibly near 40 mph overnight, particularly after midnight when the rain should begin to fall steadily. A few elevated t'storms are also possible late in the night, particuarly west of the river. The warm air conveyor will keep temps from falling much overnight after highs today reach the upper 50s.

For Tuesday, rainfall will be widespread and potentially heavy after noon through the evening hours, with upwards of 2"+ possible. In fact, parts of west TN and north MS have been identified as having a slight risk of flash flood-producing rains, where 3"+ could fall. See the NWS precipitation forecast for 6am Tuesday through 6am Wednesday to the left. Additionally, thunderstorms will be a better bet and the wind will continue to howl with gusts near 30 mph all day. Look for a high in the lower 60s.

The cold front will move through early Tuesday evening, possibly with an associated line of storms, and temperatures will begin their descent back to below normal (even for December). Wednesday will continue to be cloudy with isolated showers and temps struggling to stay around 40-43 degrees. In fact, there's a pretty decent chance that northern suburbs may not see 40 on Wednesday at all. At this point it does not appear snow is in the forecast on the backside of this system - abundant moisture will move out before the air cold enough to produce snow moves in.

BTW - did you catch the series of beautiful sunrises and sunsets over the past few days? See my blog from Friday about the "frozen sunrise." Though it was not frozen, the sunrise this morning was just as incredible, and Saturday night's sunset was also pretty awesome. Gotta love the wintertime cirrus that contributes to such a spectacular show!