Winter weather threats for this week

Could be another busy week in the old weather office as Ol' Man Winter makes another run at the Mid-South. Things have become a little more clear for Monday night, though the crystal ball is still a little fuzzy. Thankfully, Memphis is not positioned, say, in southeast Missouri or on the Ohio River where a major ice storm could be in the works...


Rain will move in Monday evening after dinner time with temps hovering near 40 as it starts. I expect the temperature to initially fall, probably into the mid to upper 30s, within an hour or so of precip commencing and some sleet could be mixed in with the rain initially as the atmosphere "saturates," as we in the business say. Once that occurs, temps will level out and the vast majority of the metro area will remain above freezing Monday night with precip falling as rain throughout the night. There is a very slight chance of some freezing rain late, but I think that will stay pretty well to our north.


Tuesday will be just plain wet and cold with temperatures not getting above the lower 40s. Tuesday night is when I think things could get interesting in the city. Depending on the timing of colder air moving in on a north wind and precipitation exiting the area behind low pressure, we could see rain change to freezing rain before ending as snow and/or sleet Wednesday morning. The potential exists for up to a 1/4" or so of ice by Wednesday morning with some light snow showers on top of that. I'll update the situation as time draws closer, but I believe the chances are better in the metro area for winter weather on Tuesday night than Monday night. Be sure to check in with the MemphisWeather.net forecast and this blog for updated conditions throughout the week.