Possible severe weather this week and definitely wet

Three separate systems look to be taking aim on portions of the Mid-South this week, providing for a very unsettled pattern that will be wet at a minimum (this week's precip potential shown above) and possibly stormy. The first of these weather trouble-makers will arrive late Tuesday in the form of a cold front that will be bringing severe weather, including tornadoes, to the Plains later today. While severe weather is not necessarily expected in the Mid-South, there is a borderline SLIGHT RISK posted for east AR, as well as counties bordering the MS River in west TN and northwest MS for Tuesday afternoon and night and for parts of north MS on Wednesday. This front will definitely be bringing a fair amount of rain and some thunderstorms late Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night, while strong gusty wind will precede the front.

The front stalls to our south on Wednesday so much of the metro area will likely be dry that day. However, Wednesday night will see a swift-moving upper-level low move along the front, bringing another chance of rain. The front then pulls north as a warm front Thursday with the possibility of rain continuing. Once again in an unseasonably warm and unstable airmass behind the warm front, another round of possible severe weather arrives late in the week. Models are still having some trouble distinguishing the characteristics and timing of this system, so stay tuned for more details.

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