Severe weather risk for Friday and Friday night

There is still some disagreement among various sources, including the various computer models, on the exact threat that the Memphis area faces for late Friday. One train of thought has the low pressure system moving by to our northwest, while the other has it just to our southeast. It doesn't seem like much, but it is significant for the resulting severe weather threat for the area.

Above is the risk outlook from the Storm Prediction Center and they are on board for a more northwesterly track of the low, which would put the metro area in the warm sector of the storm and at a higher risk for severe weather, including tornadoes. They place us on the edge of a MODERATE RISK for severe weather, which is fairly significant. Areas to our south and southwest would be under a slightly greater threat. The local Memphis NWS office and one of the better computer models actually forecast the primary low to travel over north MS. If this were to occur, we would still be under the gun for possible severe weather, but we would not make it into the storm's warm sector as the warm front would lay across north MS and the threat would be diminished, particularly for tornadoes. However, our friends in north MS may not be quite so fortunate. The greatest threat for tornadoes will likely be very near and just south of the warm front.

Given all of this, overnight thunderstorms and the exact development and track of the system will determine what our risk will be. At this time, it is prudent to plan for the likelihood of some form of severe weather during the evening and overnight hours Friday night. I'll post another update on Friday, hopefully as things become more clear.

MWN provides several resources to keep you firmly on top of the situation, including this blog, the MWN Forecast, WXLIVE! Severe Weather (email notifications immediately when watches or warnings are issued), MWN StormView Radar, maps like the one above, and of course the expertise of a dedicated weather professional running the show! Stay tuned and be safe.