Threat of severe weather diminishes

I've spent a fair amount of time talking about the potential for upcoming severe weather tonight and now there seems to be a fairly good consensus coming together... which is favorable for the metro. As seen in the above graphic, the greatest threat of severe weather, including tornadoes, appears to be focused to our south. The low pressure of concern does appear as though it will take a more southerly track, keeping the warm sector to our south, and with it the biggest threat of severe weather.

I still expect that we weill see a pretty healthy round of rain and thunderstorms tonight, likely around and after midnight though. Some small hail or a brief high wind gust is possible in our area, but the bad stuff should stay south. Look for the possibility of another inch of rain though and with the ground already saturated, it won't take that much to produce ponding or flooding of low-lying areas, underpasses, and other low points in the road. If you will be out tonight, remember the NWS mantra in flash flooding scenarios: "Turn Around, Don't Drown"! It doesn't take more than a few inches of water to float a car.

Scattered showers will stay with us Saturday, especially afternoon, as an upper level low passes overhead. The low will bring not only a few showers, but falling temps (into the 40s by evening) and windy conditions as well. Sunday looks much more pleasant, though coolish and breezy. A couple of shots at rain will appear again next week with near normal temps overall.