Wild weather week ahead

A couple more spring days left before a touch of winter sets back in! We started off the day with a record high minimum temperature at Memphis International Airport (provided we don't drop below 65 prior to midnight tonight).  67 degrees was the morning low; the previous record was 65 set in 1974.  Temperatures will remain in the 70s for highs through Tuesday before a strong late-winter cold front moves through Tuesday night.  I expect to see another record high minimum set tomorrow morning (the current record is 62 set last in 2000).  Prior to the arrival of that "real" cold front, a weaker front will move into the region this evening and briefly stall out just south of Memphis early Monday before returning north as a warm front Monday evening.  This will set the stage for the stronger push of cold air Tuesday night.

As the front pushes in later this afternoon, there will likely be a broken line of showers and storms accompanying it.  Many areas may remain rain-free, though areas that see storms will see heavy rain and lightning, gusty wind (gustier than we've already had the past few days!), and possibly small hail.  I don't expect to see many storms become severe, if any at all, though some could be strong (link to MWN StormView Radar).

Monday and Monday night will be primarily dry and continued warm, and also less windy than the past few days.  Tuesday will see a return to higher humidity, windy conditions, and very warm weather (upper 70s, which is just a couple degrees below the record high of 82).  By late in the day Tuesday, I expect a possible squall line to move into western parts of the Mid-South and continue through the region overnight Tuesday night.  This will be our best chance of thunderstorms for the entire area in the next 7 days.  I'll continue to monitor it and keep you abreast of any possible severe weather.  A slight risk area is possible for Tuesday night for our region.

Wednesday will begin the next cold spell and it will unfortunately feel REAL cold following this wonderful spell of 70-degree weather.  Besides the cold, it unfortunately could be wet as well with southwest flow aloft overrunning cold northerly wind at the surface.  We'll keep our fingers crossed that the surface temps don't get TOO cold and we don't end up with any freezing precip.  Check out the MWN forecast for the latest on our wild weather week ahead!