PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NWS-MEMPHIS TN / MEMPHISWEATHER.NET
718 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2009
...EF-1 TORNADO DAMAGE IN SHELBY COUNTY TENNESSEE...
A COUPLE OF NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SURVEY TEAMS SURVEYED THE DAMAGE FROM A TORNADO IN CORDOVA TENNESSEE... FROM THURSDAY /JULY 30/. THE TORNADO IS RATED AS AN EF-1 WITH WINDS AROUND 100 MPH.
THE TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN JUST EAST OF INTERSTATE 40 AND APPLING ROAD. IT DAMAGED A COUPLE OF BASEBALL FIELDS [AT BELLEVUE BAPTIST CHURCH] AND THEN PROCEEDED INTO THE WOODS DAMAGING TREES. IT THEN MOVED NORTHEAST JUST SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 INTO A SHOPPING AREA [WHERE KOHL'S DEPARTMENT STORE IS LOCATED] AND DAMAGED SEVERAL BUSINESSES. THE TORNADO CROSSED GERMANTOWN PARKWAY DAMAGING A MOTEL [QUALITY SUITES]... RESTAURANT [SHOGUN] AND GAS STATION [SHELL] BEFORE MOVING INTO A RESIDENTIAL NEIGHBORHOOD [COUNTRYWOOD SUBDIVISION]. DAMAGE TO SOME HOMES WAS ALSO OBSERVED ALONG WITH UPROOTED AND SNAPPED TREES. THE TORNADO CONTINUED TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO A GOLF COURSE [COLONIAL COUNTRY CLUB]. THE COURSE HAD DAMAGE TO NUMEROUS TREES... FENCES.. AND ONE SMALL BUILDING. THE TORNADO ENDED NEAR THE CENTER OF THE GOLF COURSE.
THE PATH WAS 2.1 MILES LONG AND THE MAXIMUM WIDTH OF THE TORNADO WAS 250 YARDS. THE MAXIMUM WIND SPEED WAS BETWEEN 90 AND 100 MPH.
$$
Friday, July 31, 2009
Tornadoes strike the Memphis area - July 30, 2009
...Updated for increase in intensity of Cordova tornado to EF-1...
Another savage storm system swept through the Mid-South late Thursday afternoon and evening (July 30, 2009), unleashing multiple tornadoes and flooding rains in the Memphis metropolitan area and throughout the region. Tornadoes struck Cordova, on Germantown Parkway just south of I-40 (and just south of Wolfchase Galleria), Olive Branch, MS, and there are also reports of possible tornado damage in southwest Memphis and other areas throughout the Mid-South, from west-central TN to northwest MS. In fact, a probable tornado passed very near a personal weather station in Henning, TN, in southern Lauderdale County northeast of Covington. The result was an 86 mph measured wind gust!
Preliminary damage reports on the Cordova and Olive Branch storms indicated EF-1 and EF-2 damage, respectively. MLGW reported 12,000 customers without power shortly after the storm, while DeSoto County officials estimated 9,000 people lost power in their county. Gas leaks were also reported in the area around Kohl's department store on Germantown Parkway and high-water rescues were made in DeSoto County as well.
A couple of amateur videos of damage in Cordova taken shortly after the storm passed through can be found here: video 1 and video 2. Scott Merrill (MidSouth PC Repair) of College Park subdivision took an excellent amateur video of the Olive Branch tornado as it approached his subdivision and also has damage photos of one of the hardest hit areas.
The Commercial Appeal has published a couple of articles on the storm's aftermath, which can be found here and here, as well as a photo gallery. Covering Olive Branch, the DeSoto Times Tribune has an article here. The Weather Channel also has a story on the Olive Branch storm and video story of the Cordova aftermath.
The National Weather Service in Memphis also has a webpage with storms reports, damage surveys, and damage photos located here.
My photos from the Cordova storm, taken less than 24 hours after it passed, are shown in the slideshow below.
Miraculously, with all of the destruction, there were NO reported injuries or fatalities!
Another savage storm system swept through the Mid-South late Thursday afternoon and evening (July 30, 2009), unleashing multiple tornadoes and flooding rains in the Memphis metropolitan area and throughout the region. Tornadoes struck Cordova, on Germantown Parkway just south of I-40 (and just south of Wolfchase Galleria), Olive Branch, MS, and there are also reports of possible tornado damage in southwest Memphis and other areas throughout the Mid-South, from west-central TN to northwest MS. In fact, a probable tornado passed very near a personal weather station in Henning, TN, in southern Lauderdale County northeast of Covington. The result was an 86 mph measured wind gust!
Preliminary damage reports on the Cordova and Olive Branch storms indicated EF-1 and EF-2 damage, respectively. MLGW reported 12,000 customers without power shortly after the storm, while DeSoto County officials estimated 9,000 people lost power in their county. Gas leaks were also reported in the area around Kohl's department store on Germantown Parkway and high-water rescues were made in DeSoto County as well.
A couple of amateur videos of damage in Cordova taken shortly after the storm passed through can be found here: video 1 and video 2. Scott Merrill (MidSouth PC Repair) of College Park subdivision took an excellent amateur video of the Olive Branch tornado as it approached his subdivision and also has damage photos of one of the hardest hit areas.
The Commercial Appeal has published a couple of articles on the storm's aftermath, which can be found here and here, as well as a photo gallery. Covering Olive Branch, the DeSoto Times Tribune has an article here. The Weather Channel also has a story on the Olive Branch storm and video story of the Cordova aftermath.
The National Weather Service in Memphis also has a webpage with storms reports, damage surveys, and damage photos located here.
My photos from the Cordova storm, taken less than 24 hours after it passed, are shown in the slideshow below.
Miraculously, with all of the destruction, there were NO reported injuries or fatalities!
----
Become a fan of MemphisWeather.net on Facebook and follow MWN on Twitter to stay updated on the latest in Memphis weather happenings.
Olive Branch tornado upgraded to EF-2 intensity
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
113 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2009
...ADDITIONAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DAMAGE SURVEY DETERMINES AN EF2 TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN IN OLIVE BRANCH MISSISSIPPI ON THURSDAY 30 JULY 2009...
THIS IS AN UPGRADE FROM THE EF1 STATUS THAT WAS INITIALLY DETERMINED.
THE TOUCHDOWN STARTED AT 500 PM CDT FOUR TENTHS OF A MILE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 305 AND COLLEGE ROAD... BETWEEN OLIVE BRANCH AND LEWISBURG. THE TORNADO HAD A NON CONTINUOUS TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST FOR 5.8 MILES... ENDING ONE THIRD OF A MILE EAST OF THE INTERSECTION OF CENTER HILL ROAD AND KNIGHTSBRIDGE ROAD. IT IS ESTIMATED THE MAXIMUM WIDTH WAS ABOUT ONE QUARTER OF A MILE... WHILE THE MAXIMUM ESTIMATED WINDS WERE 115 MPH.
THERE ARE SEVERAL SUBDIVISION IN SOUTHEAST OLIVE BRANCH THAT WERE HARDEST HIT... WITH NUMEROUS TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN... SOME WHICH HAVE FALLEN ON HOUSES. AT LEAST ONE HOME SUSTAINED EF2 DAMAGE... NUMEROUS OTHERS WITH HIGH END EF1 DAMAGE. NUMEROUS HOMES HAVE SUBSTANTIAL ROOF OR SHINGLE DAMAGE AS WELL. THE DESOTO COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTS NO INJURIES.
THE TORNADO FORMED IN A WARM... UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE... SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
$$
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
113 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2009
...ADDITIONAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DAMAGE SURVEY DETERMINES AN EF2 TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN IN OLIVE BRANCH MISSISSIPPI ON THURSDAY 30 JULY 2009...
THIS IS AN UPGRADE FROM THE EF1 STATUS THAT WAS INITIALLY DETERMINED.
THE TOUCHDOWN STARTED AT 500 PM CDT FOUR TENTHS OF A MILE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 305 AND COLLEGE ROAD... BETWEEN OLIVE BRANCH AND LEWISBURG. THE TORNADO HAD A NON CONTINUOUS TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST FOR 5.8 MILES... ENDING ONE THIRD OF A MILE EAST OF THE INTERSECTION OF CENTER HILL ROAD AND KNIGHTSBRIDGE ROAD. IT IS ESTIMATED THE MAXIMUM WIDTH WAS ABOUT ONE QUARTER OF A MILE... WHILE THE MAXIMUM ESTIMATED WINDS WERE 115 MPH.
THERE ARE SEVERAL SUBDIVISION IN SOUTHEAST OLIVE BRANCH THAT WERE HARDEST HIT... WITH NUMEROUS TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN... SOME WHICH HAVE FALLEN ON HOUSES. AT LEAST ONE HOME SUSTAINED EF2 DAMAGE... NUMEROUS OTHERS WITH HIGH END EF1 DAMAGE. NUMEROUS HOMES HAVE SUBSTANTIAL ROOF OR SHINGLE DAMAGE AS WELL. THE DESOTO COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTS NO INJURIES.
THE TORNADO FORMED IN A WARM... UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE... SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
$$
Thursday, July 30, 2009
NWS confirms EF-1 damage in Olive Branch, MS
NOTE: This information has been superceded, upgrading the intensity to EF-2. See the report here.
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
854 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2009
...PRELIMINARY DAMAGE SURVEY REPORT FOR OLIVE BRANCH MISSISSIPPI TORNADO...
A NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DAMAGE SURVEY TEAM FOUND TORNADO DAMAGE IN THE VICINITY OF OLIVE BRANCH MISSISSIPPI NEAR THE INTERSECTIONS OF BETHEL ROAD AND U.S. HIGHWAY 78. THE TEAM FOUND NUMEROUS HOMES DAMAGED WITH SOME HOMES WITHOUT ROOFS AND PORTIONS OF THEIR SECOND STORIES IN THE BETHEL PARK SUBDIVISION.
THE TEAM PRELIMINARILY RATED THIS TORNADO AS EF-1 DAMAGE WITH ESTIMATED WIND SPEEDS OF 105 MPH. THE PRELIMINARY WIDTH WAS 300 YARDS AND PRELIMINARY LENGTH WAS FOUR MILES. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL UPDATE THIS SURVEY REPORT AS NEEDED ON FRIDAY.
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
854 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2009
...PRELIMINARY DAMAGE SURVEY REPORT FOR OLIVE BRANCH MISSISSIPPI TORNADO...
A NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DAMAGE SURVEY TEAM FOUND TORNADO DAMAGE IN THE VICINITY OF OLIVE BRANCH MISSISSIPPI NEAR THE INTERSECTIONS OF BETHEL ROAD AND U.S. HIGHWAY 78. THE TEAM FOUND NUMEROUS HOMES DAMAGED WITH SOME HOMES WITHOUT ROOFS AND PORTIONS OF THEIR SECOND STORIES IN THE BETHEL PARK SUBDIVISION.
THE TEAM PRELIMINARILY RATED THIS TORNADO AS EF-1 DAMAGE WITH ESTIMATED WIND SPEEDS OF 105 MPH. THE PRELIMINARY WIDTH WAS 300 YARDS AND PRELIMINARY LENGTH WAS FOUR MILES. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL UPDATE THIS SURVEY REPORT AS NEEDED ON FRIDAY.
EF-0 tornado damage in Cordova, TN near Wolfchase Mall
NOTE: This information has been superceded, upgrading the intensity to EF-1. See the report here.
DAMAGE SURVEY TEMPLATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
659 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2009
...PRELIMINARY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DAMAGE SURVEY DETERMINES EF-0 TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN THIS AFTERNOON IN CORDOVA...
AROUND 450 PM THURSDAY /JULY 30/ A TORNADO TOUCHDOWN IN CORDOVA... TENNESSEE... AREA JUST SOUTH OF THE WOLFCHASE MALL. THE TORNADO HAS A PRELIMINARY PATH OF 5 MILES LONG AND WIDTH OF 250 YARDS. THE PRELIMINARY SURVEY SETS THE TORNADO WITH WINDS OF 80 TO 90 MPH... AND IS AN EF-0.
DAMAGE SURVEY TEMPLATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
659 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2009
...PRELIMINARY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DAMAGE SURVEY DETERMINES EF-0 TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN THIS AFTERNOON IN CORDOVA...
AROUND 450 PM THURSDAY /JULY 30/ A TORNADO TOUCHDOWN IN CORDOVA... TENNESSEE... AREA JUST SOUTH OF THE WOLFCHASE MALL. THE TORNADO HAS A PRELIMINARY PATH OF 5 MILES LONG AND WIDTH OF 250 YARDS. THE PRELIMINARY SURVEY SETS THE TORNADO WITH WINDS OF 80 TO 90 MPH... AND IS AN EF-0.
Wednesday, July 29, 2009
Flash Flood Watch for the entire Mid-South
FLASH FLOOD WATCH
NWS-MEMPHIS TN / MEMPHISWEATHER.NET
454 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2009
A FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY JUST NORTH OF THE MID-SOUTH TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS OVERNIGHT AND WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE REGION AND THE FRONT STARTS TO MOVE SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF THURSDAY EVENING.
..FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 1:00AM FRIDAY MORNING...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A
* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS... NORTH MISSISSIPPI... SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST TENNESSEE... INCLUDING THE MEMPHIS METRO AREA
* FROM NOW UNTIL 1:00AM FRIDAY
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME NUMEROUS THIS EVENING AND WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN ACROSS MID-SOUTH. TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.
* THE GROUND IS ALREADY SATURATED IN MANY AREAS DUE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL RAIN IN JULY. THIS WILL INCREASE THE RUNOFF POTENTIAL... AND WILL MAKE FLASH FLOODING MORE LIKELY.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.
YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.
DO NOT DRIVE INTO WATER-COVERED ROADWAYS OR ALLOW CHILDREN TO PLAY NEAR SWOLLEN CREEKS OR DRAINAGE AREAS.
$
JCL/EAP
NWS-MEMPHIS TN / MEMPHISWEATHER.NET
454 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2009
A FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY JUST NORTH OF THE MID-SOUTH TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS OVERNIGHT AND WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE REGION AND THE FRONT STARTS TO MOVE SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF THURSDAY EVENING.
..FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 1:00AM FRIDAY MORNING...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A
* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS... NORTH MISSISSIPPI... SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST TENNESSEE... INCLUDING THE MEMPHIS METRO AREA
* FROM NOW UNTIL 1:00AM FRIDAY
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME NUMEROUS THIS EVENING AND WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN ACROSS MID-SOUTH. TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.
* THE GROUND IS ALREADY SATURATED IN MANY AREAS DUE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL RAIN IN JULY. THIS WILL INCREASE THE RUNOFF POTENTIAL... AND WILL MAKE FLASH FLOODING MORE LIKELY.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.
YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.
DO NOT DRIVE INTO WATER-COVERED ROADWAYS OR ALLOW CHILDREN TO PLAY NEAR SWOLLEN CREEKS OR DRAINAGE AREAS.
$
JCL/EAP
A record-setting cool July day in Memphis
Memphis International Airport set a record on Tuesday, 7/28/09, for the coolest high temperature for the day as the mercury peaked at 79 degrees, thanks to persistent cloud cover and scattered showers. This breaks the old record of 80 degrees set last in 1946. The high temperature in Bartlett also peaked at 79 degrees.
An abnormally cool July will likely continue through the end of the month. With more rain forecast this week, hot temperatures are not expected before the start of August, likely making this month one of the coolest Julys on record.
----
Become a fan of MemphisWeather.net on Facebook and follow MWN on Twitter!
An abnormally cool July will likely continue through the end of the month. With more rain forecast this week, hot temperatures are not expected before the start of August, likely making this month one of the coolest Julys on record.
----
Become a fan of MemphisWeather.net on Facebook and follow MWN on Twitter!
Saturday, July 25, 2009
Still frames of a nearby lightning strike
These still photos were part of a short video taken with my digital camera as the June 12th summer storms (derecho) approached the northeastern Memphis suburb of Bartlett. I happened to get a very close lightning strike just before I shut the camera off and extracted these individual frames from it. The time elapsed from the first to the last picture above was about half a second. You can click on each picture for a slightly larger version. Of course, we all know the result of that storm in the Memphis area.
Also, I'd like to say thanks again to my loyal readers and blog followers. My blog passed 15,000 direct visitors since July 23, 2008 - just 3 days shy of one year. Many more of you follow the blog on Facebook and other sources - THANK YOU!!
Friday, July 24, 2009
Update on new air traffic control tower at Memphis
I posted a brief in late May about the rising landmark over Memphis International Airport - a brand-new 336-foot control tower that is under construction. Within the past few weeks, the new "under construction" tower has surpassed the height of the old control tower and continues to rise! I've posted a few pics above - the third is taken at an angle to best show their respective heights without an angle distortion. You can clearly see how it is not only taller, but the tower is also wider. (I've been up in the current tower and the elevator fits about 4 people - it's tiny!). The final 336-foot height will be about 150 feet taller than the current tower and provide controllers with unparalleled visibility of the entire airfield. The new tower is expected to be commissioned in 2011 (but the exterior construction will be done sometime in 2010) and will cost $55 million. Click here to see the new tower webcam - I've posted this evening's sunset picture from the cam below.
----Wednesday, July 22, 2009
July 22, 2009 - the 6th anniversary of "Hurricane Elvis"
Today marks the 6th anniversary of the infamous "Hurricane Elvis" storm which swept across the metro Memphis area on July 22, 2003 at about 7am CDT. The aftermath of that derecho, with its 100-mph wind, was incredible as more than 750,000 people lost power (some for more than 3 weeks), structural and infrastructure damage was widespread (75% of the traffic signals were out and the airport closed), and seven people lost their lives.
Though the Memphis area has seen a couple of other strong derechos since that storm (most recently "Little Elvis" on June 12, 2009), I am hopeful that we never have to experience another system of this magnitude.
Here are some links on Hurricane Elvis:
Retraction on recent "record" cool temps
This serves as an official retraction of the post from July 21, 2009 and a portion of the post from July 18, 2009. The high temperature of 77 degrees on July 21 was NOT the coolest high temperature ever recorded on that date nor did it tie for the coolest "meteorological summer" day on record. The previous record (which still stands) is 70 degrees, not 82 degrees as quoted.
In addition, the record lowest high temperature for July 18 is 76 degrees, which was also not broken.
MemphisWeather.net apologizes for this error which was the result of misreading the climate statistics.
----
Become a fan of MemphisWeather.net on Facebook and follow MWN on Twitter!
In addition, the record lowest high temperature for July 18 is 76 degrees, which was also not broken.
MemphisWeather.net apologizes for this error which was the result of misreading the climate statistics.
----
Become a fan of MemphisWeather.net on Facebook and follow MWN on Twitter!
Tuesday, July 21, 2009
Another record cool day
UPDATED:
Below is the original post for this day, however the information contained in this post proved to be inaccurate and has been retracted. Our apologies for the inconvenience.
Original Post:
Another Memphis temperature record bit the dust today, as the coolest high temperature ever on this date was set today. The previous record of 82 degrees was set 131 YEARS AGO, but was smashed by today's high of only 77 (which incidentally occurred in the wee hours of the morning). The daytime high temperature was 76 degrees. This also marks only the second time on record that a July high temperature did not make it out of the 70s and it ties the record for the coolest "meteorological summer" day in Memphis' officially recorded weather history. (Meteorological summer is defined as June, July, and August.) What were the only other two "summer" days to have a high of just 77? June 5th and 6th, 2008 - yes, just last year!
----
Become a fan of MemphisWeather.net on Facebook and follow MWN on Twitter!
Below is the original post for this day, however the information contained in this post proved to be inaccurate and has been retracted. Our apologies for the inconvenience.
Original Post:
Another Memphis temperature record bit the dust today, as the coolest high temperature ever on this date was set today. The previous record of 82 degrees was set 131 YEARS AGO, but was smashed by today's high of only 77 (which incidentally occurred in the wee hours of the morning). The daytime high temperature was 76 degrees. This also marks only the second time on record that a July high temperature did not make it out of the 70s and it ties the record for the coolest "meteorological summer" day in Memphis' officially recorded weather history. (Meteorological summer is defined as June, July, and August.) What were the only other two "summer" days to have a high of just 77? June 5th and 6th, 2008 - yes, just last year!
----
Become a fan of MemphisWeather.net on Facebook and follow MWN on Twitter!
Monday, July 20, 2009
Dry weather comes to an end Tuesday
Dry weather will end on Tuesday as an unusually strong low pressure system for this time of year moves just north of the area, dragging a cold front through the Mid-South. The clouds and precipitation will keep temperatures in check - near 80 for highs. Dry weather returns for the rest of the work week.
Saturday, July 18, 2009
A cool July weekend... and a commentary on climate record-keeping
UPDATED:
The italicized portion of the post below was written in error and is inaccurate. That portion of the blog is retracted. The rest of the blog stands.
Original Post:
Wow, what a "bonus weekend" we are in the midst of here in the Mid-South! A strong cold front passed through the region and settled down to the Gulf Coast yesterday and on its heels Canadian high pressure has settled in. This has brought us some nice relief from typical July weather which would have us seeing lower 90s for highs and above 70 for lows with a fair amount of humidity.
This morning's low at Memphis International was 64 degrees, which was 2 degrees off the record of 62. Here in Bartlett, WXLIVE! bottomed out at 59 degrees this morning. I'm forecasting similar conditions for tonight, perhaps a degree or two cooler - 63 in Memphis (which would be one degree shy of the record) and 57-58 in the suburbs. Should be a very nice way to wake up Sunday morning! One record that still may go down is the coolest maximum temperature for today at Memphis. The previous record was 82 set way back in 1934 - so far the airport has topped out at 81. We should at least tie, if not break, that 75-year-old record!
Speaking of daily weather records, I learned this week of an oddity in the way climate records are kept during Daylight Savings Time. According to a National Weather Service directive (10-1004, dated September 4, 2008), daily climate records (temperature, precipitation, etc.), as recorded in the CF6 climate record, are computed based on the "Standard Time" clock. So, during DST, the "day" for climate record keeping purposes runs from 1:00am to 1:00am, not midnight to midnight. This directive caused an interesting side-effect on June 28, 2009. The daily low (midnight to midnight) for the day was 81 degrees, which would have set a new maximum low temperature for the day. However, between 12:00-1:00am on the 29th, the temperature dropped to 78, thus the old record of 80 was NOT broken. Personally, I think this is stupid (there, I said it). A DAILY record should not include a part of another day. If you want to look at the directive for yourself, click here and look on page 17, section 4.3.3b. The old record stands; I'm still miffed.
----
Become a fan of MemphisWeather.net on Facebook and follow MWN on Twitter!
The italicized portion of the post below was written in error and is inaccurate. That portion of the blog is retracted. The rest of the blog stands.
Original Post:
Wow, what a "bonus weekend" we are in the midst of here in the Mid-South! A strong cold front passed through the region and settled down to the Gulf Coast yesterday and on its heels Canadian high pressure has settled in. This has brought us some nice relief from typical July weather which would have us seeing lower 90s for highs and above 70 for lows with a fair amount of humidity.
This morning's low at Memphis International was 64 degrees, which was 2 degrees off the record of 62. Here in Bartlett, WXLIVE! bottomed out at 59 degrees this morning. I'm forecasting similar conditions for tonight, perhaps a degree or two cooler - 63 in Memphis (which would be one degree shy of the record) and 57-58 in the suburbs. Should be a very nice way to wake up Sunday morning! One record that still may go down is the coolest maximum temperature for today at Memphis. The previous record was 82 set way back in 1934 - so far the airport has topped out at 81. We should at least tie, if not break, that 75-year-old record!
Speaking of daily weather records, I learned this week of an oddity in the way climate records are kept during Daylight Savings Time. According to a National Weather Service directive (10-1004, dated September 4, 2008), daily climate records (temperature, precipitation, etc.), as recorded in the CF6 climate record, are computed based on the "Standard Time" clock. So, during DST, the "day" for climate record keeping purposes runs from 1:00am to 1:00am, not midnight to midnight. This directive caused an interesting side-effect on June 28, 2009. The daily low (midnight to midnight) for the day was 81 degrees, which would have set a new maximum low temperature for the day. However, between 12:00-1:00am on the 29th, the temperature dropped to 78, thus the old record of 80 was NOT broken. Personally, I think this is stupid (there, I said it). A DAILY record should not include a part of another day. If you want to look at the directive for yourself, click here and look on page 17, section 4.3.3b. The old record stands; I'm still miffed.
----
Become a fan of MemphisWeather.net on Facebook and follow MWN on Twitter!
Wednesday, July 15, 2009
Gust front passage in northern Shelby County - July 15, 2009 - 7:50pm
Just a few pics I snapped as the gust front (shelf cloud) was moving south into northern Shelby County and then passing overhead. The temp dropped from 91.0 at 7:45 to 84.5 at 8:00pm. Dewpoint dropped from 76.4 to 71.1 (drier, cooler outflow air from the storms to the north) and the wind gusted to 21 mph from the NNE as it passed overhead.
Front approaching from the north, towering cumulus along the front, cirrus anvil shield over head from storms well to the north.
Back edge of front coming into view
Gust front overhead
Back edge approaching with a beautiful sunset taking shape
Scud clouds are all that remains behind it
The radar imagery associated with the photos above. Note the gust front visible in the radar image.
Front approaching from the north, towering cumulus along the front, cirrus anvil shield over head from storms well to the north.
Back edge of front coming into view
Gust front overhead
Back edge approaching with a beautiful sunset taking shape
Scud clouds are all that remains behind it
The radar imagery associated with the photos above. Note the gust front visible in the radar image.Manipulation of the sea ahead of a hurricane?
Found this article from the New Orleans Times-Picayune to be very interesting... http://cli.gs/RYBTzZ
Bill Gates and several other engineers and scientists have a patent (actually multiple patents) pending for a tub-like device that would weaken a potentially destructive hurricane before it reaches land. The device is designed to cool the waters in the forecast path of a storm, causing it to weaken, while also having other beneficial side effects. Check out the diagram below, read the article, and let me know what you think.
Bill Gates and several other engineers and scientists have a patent (actually multiple patents) pending for a tub-like device that would weaken a potentially destructive hurricane before it reaches land. The device is designed to cool the waters in the forecast path of a storm, causing it to weaken, while also having other beneficial side effects. Check out the diagram below, read the article, and let me know what you think.
----Mid-South forecast discussion for July 15
Not-so-good news and VERY good news in the Memphis area forecast. First, we have to get through the not-so-good... more heat and humidity are on tap for today with a southerly breeze and a fair amount of sunshine. Today will be the warmest day of the week with highs well into the 90s (mid 90s expected in the metro area) and dewpoints remaining in the 70s, providing a heat index between 100-105 degrees this afternoon. Exercise caution if you will be spending any time outdoors by staying hydrated and taking frequent breaks.
A cold front will be inching closer from the north so, when coupled with the heat and humidity, a stray shower or thunderstorm is not out of the question this afternoon. The front will hang up over the Mid-South Thursday and Friday providing for scattered showers and thunderstorms each day. Timing of impulses along the front is still not certain, but one of these could provide for a period of heavy rainfall at some point during that 36-hour period. The MWN forecast will be refined to increase rain chances as necessary once the picture gets a little clearer.
Now the very GOOD news... By Friday, an unseasonably strong trough at the upper levels will develop across the Mississippi Valley and stregthen heading into the weekend. The trough will force the cold front to move well to our south and usher in unseasonably COOL air for the weekend, along with lots of sunshine! With humidity plummeting, morning lows could conceivably drop into the upper 50s in outlying areas on Sunday and Monday mornings and high temps area-wide will only reach the 80s - perhaps even just the lower 80s! It will be a refreshing break for mid-July! Below normal temperatures look like they will stick around well into next week.
----
Become a fan of MemphisWeather.net on Facebook and follow MWN on Twitter!
A cold front will be inching closer from the north so, when coupled with the heat and humidity, a stray shower or thunderstorm is not out of the question this afternoon. The front will hang up over the Mid-South Thursday and Friday providing for scattered showers and thunderstorms each day. Timing of impulses along the front is still not certain, but one of these could provide for a period of heavy rainfall at some point during that 36-hour period. The MWN forecast will be refined to increase rain chances as necessary once the picture gets a little clearer.
Now the very GOOD news... By Friday, an unseasonably strong trough at the upper levels will develop across the Mississippi Valley and stregthen heading into the weekend. The trough will force the cold front to move well to our south and usher in unseasonably COOL air for the weekend, along with lots of sunshine! With humidity plummeting, morning lows could conceivably drop into the upper 50s in outlying areas on Sunday and Monday mornings and high temps area-wide will only reach the 80s - perhaps even just the lower 80s! It will be a refreshing break for mid-July! Below normal temperatures look like they will stick around well into next week.
----
Become a fan of MemphisWeather.net on Facebook and follow MWN on Twitter!
Tuesday, July 14, 2009
Survey says 300B weather forecasts used annually
A recent survey by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) reports that U.S. adults obtain an estimated 300 BILLION (300,000,000,000) forecasts each year! The survey, conducted in 2006, also says that nearly 9 out of 10 adults obtain a weather forecast regularly, with the average being more than 3 forecasts a day. The study, the first of its kind, was funded by the National Science Foundation and NOAA, the organization that the National Weather Service falls under. The study also found that most people place a high confidence in forecasts out to 1-2 days and that they are "generally satisfied" with the forecasts obtained. At MemphisWeather.net, we hope that our very intelligent and savvy users are more than just "generally" satisfied - that they are "thrilled" with the products and services provided!
For the official press release on the survey with more details on the findings, click here (PDF).
----
Become a fan of MemphisWeather.net on Facebook and follow MWN on Twitter!
For the official press release on the survey with more details on the findings, click here (PDF).
----
Become a fan of MemphisWeather.net on Facebook and follow MWN on Twitter!
Friday, July 10, 2009
New GOES satellite reaches orbit
In case you missed it, Boeing/NASA/NOAA sent a new weather satellite into space onboard a Delta IV rocket back on June 27. This satellite, named GOES-O (the letter, not the number 0), has been maneuvering around to get into final orbit for the past couple weeks and on Wednesday reached its final destination at 22,300 miles up at 89.5 degrees West longitude. At that time, it was re-named GOES-14. Up to this point, Boeing has been calling the shots for GOES-O/14, but next Friday, the reins will be handed off the NASA for approximately 5 months while it completes on-orbit checkout. The first image from the new satellite will be produced July 27. Then, the spacecraft gets handed over to NOAA, where it becomes a "hot spare," fully ready to jump in in case of a failure of one of the other GOES satellites that are currently providing the shots of the weather over the western hemisphere.
Those satellites, which are one generation older than GOES-14, are GOES-11 (or GOES-West, covering the western U.S.) and GOES-12 (or GOES-East, covering the eastern U.S.). There are two other GOES satellites floating over the Earth - GOES-10 covering South America and GOES-13, a sister to GOES-14 and also in standby mode.
Thursday, July 9, 2009
MWN forecast accuracy vs. Memphis TV stations
I've made a fairly bold claim regarding the accuracy of the MemphisWeather.net forecast for some time now... that it is "the most accurate publicly-available forecast for Memphis and the Mid-South." I've been told a number of times that this is true by fans of my site, so I have some degree of confidence in my work. Empirically, I back that claim up each month with accuracy statistics on every temperature forecast I prepare, comparing it to several computer models that are but one input to my forecast, as well as to the NWS forecasts. I also keep accuracy statistics on my dewpoint forecasts, though since I don't show those in the forecasts themselves and most people know very little about dewpoint (read the linked post for more), I also don't publicize their accuracy (suffice it to say, they are good too).
I don't keep accuracy stats on anything else (precip, cloud cover, wind, etc.) for a couple of reasons: 1) it's too hard to assign a "value" to the accuracy of those conditions without introducing bias, and 2) I figure if I don't forecast rain (or do) and it does the opposite, or I over- or under-forecast cloud cover, it's typically reflected in the accuracy of my temperature forecasts. That's good enough for me.
But my claim is that I produce the most accurate "publicly-available" (meaning free for public consumption) forecast for Memphis. I can't claim this without comparing my forecasts to what most people use for their weather information - local TV stations. So, in May, I did just that. With help from a budding young meteorologist who did the leg work for me (thanks Josh!), I set about to prove that my temperature forecasts are at least as good as the TV stations in the Memphis market. Here are the results, which show the average temperature error (in degrees) out to 60 hours for each station based on the forecasts posted on the web as of late afternoon/evening (the ones they show on TV on the 5pm or 6pm newscasts):
WREG (Channel 3): 2.19 degrees
WMC (Channel 5): 2.23 degrees
FOX (Channel 13): 3.01 degrees
CW/UPN (Ch. 24/30): 2.10 degrees
MemphisWeather.net: 1.98 degrees
Not bad huh? They're all very comparable for the most part. The surprising thing to me was that channels 24/30 (which use the same weather department and forecasts) outperformed the "Big 3" in the Memphis market (at least for this subset of time)! Of course, I wouldn't bother posting this if I couldn't back up my claim (well, maybe I would). My hypothesis was proven and, for May (which also happens to be sweeps month), the MemphisWeather.net forecast was anywhere from 6%-52% more accurate than the local TV stations.
Understand that I am not out to "toot my own horn" with this posting, I simply believe that when one person is responsible for the forecast day in and day out (thus establishing consistency and having continuous knowledge of the current state of the atmosphere), when that person gets to concentrate on a small region all of the time, and has lived in and forecasted the weather for that area for well over a decade, the odds are pretty good that what you get is a superior product. I appreciate all of you who have come to trust MemphisWeather.net and use it on a daily basis for your weather information.
Last note, to set the record straight: I do not see this as a competition with the NWS or the local TV stations - they obviously have a much larger following than this site and all of us do a great job of getting the word out to you when you need it most. Without the NWS, none of this is even possible - they do a fantastic job of living out their mission. Without the TV stations, many more people die each year as a result of the weather. My goal is to work collaboratively with the weather community as a whole to keep you informed and safe. Thanks for your support!
----
Become a fan of MemphisWeather.net on Facebook and follow MWN on Twitter!
I don't keep accuracy stats on anything else (precip, cloud cover, wind, etc.) for a couple of reasons: 1) it's too hard to assign a "value" to the accuracy of those conditions without introducing bias, and 2) I figure if I don't forecast rain (or do) and it does the opposite, or I over- or under-forecast cloud cover, it's typically reflected in the accuracy of my temperature forecasts. That's good enough for me.
But my claim is that I produce the most accurate "publicly-available" (meaning free for public consumption) forecast for Memphis. I can't claim this without comparing my forecasts to what most people use for their weather information - local TV stations. So, in May, I did just that. With help from a budding young meteorologist who did the leg work for me (thanks Josh!), I set about to prove that my temperature forecasts are at least as good as the TV stations in the Memphis market. Here are the results, which show the average temperature error (in degrees) out to 60 hours for each station based on the forecasts posted on the web as of late afternoon/evening (the ones they show on TV on the 5pm or 6pm newscasts):
WREG (Channel 3): 2.19 degrees
WMC (Channel 5): 2.23 degrees
FOX (Channel 13): 3.01 degrees
CW/UPN (Ch. 24/30): 2.10 degrees
MemphisWeather.net: 1.98 degrees
Not bad huh? They're all very comparable for the most part. The surprising thing to me was that channels 24/30 (which use the same weather department and forecasts) outperformed the "Big 3" in the Memphis market (at least for this subset of time)! Of course, I wouldn't bother posting this if I couldn't back up my claim (well, maybe I would). My hypothesis was proven and, for May (which also happens to be sweeps month), the MemphisWeather.net forecast was anywhere from 6%-52% more accurate than the local TV stations.
Understand that I am not out to "toot my own horn" with this posting, I simply believe that when one person is responsible for the forecast day in and day out (thus establishing consistency and having continuous knowledge of the current state of the atmosphere), when that person gets to concentrate on a small region all of the time, and has lived in and forecasted the weather for that area for well over a decade, the odds are pretty good that what you get is a superior product. I appreciate all of you who have come to trust MemphisWeather.net and use it on a daily basis for your weather information.
Last note, to set the record straight: I do not see this as a competition with the NWS or the local TV stations - they obviously have a much larger following than this site and all of us do a great job of getting the word out to you when you need it most. Without the NWS, none of this is even possible - they do a fantastic job of living out their mission. Without the TV stations, many more people die each year as a result of the weather. My goal is to work collaboratively with the weather community as a whole to keep you informed and safe. Thanks for your support!
----
Become a fan of MemphisWeather.net on Facebook and follow MWN on Twitter!
Monday, July 6, 2009
June 2009 - climate stats and forecast accuracy
Thanks to strong upper-level high pressure the latter half of the month, June 2009 averaged dry and hot in Memphis. In fact, after June 14, only a trace of rainfall was officially recorded, which is why precipitation ended up approximately one-half of what is normally received for the month. Also, beginning June 15, a string of 20 consecutive days of 90+ degree highs were observed. Following are climate summaries for Memphis and Bartlett, TN.
Memphis International Airport, Memphis, TN
At the airport, the average temperature was 81.3 degrees, which was 2.6 degrees above normal and nearly 10 degrees above May's average. The highest temperature for the month was 100 degrees on the 23rd, only the second 100-degree reading in June in 14 years, and the lowest was 58 on the 6th. A total of 19 June days saw highs at or above 90 degrees. Record maximum low temperatures were set three times during the month (24th, 27th, and 28th) as lows failed to drop below 80 degrees on four occasions.
Precipitation totaled 2.13", which was over 2.17" below the normal of 4.30" and about 5 inches below May's total. There were only 6 days with measurable rainfall recorded (plus 3 days with a trace of precipitation) and zero days with more than an inch of rain. The peak wind gust was recorded during the derecho on the 12th (53 mph), though some locations in the metro area recorded wind gusts of up to 80 mph that afternoon (if you have yet to read it, see my event analysis of the summer storm). Click here for the NWS climate recap for June.
Bartlett, TN
WXLIVE! began its fifth year of operation on June 23 and is building a decent database of weather events. The average temperature for June was 80.2 degrees, with a max of 98.5 on the 23rd (one of 19 days above 90) and a min of 53.9 degrees on the 6th. Precipitation actually totaled much higher than the airport thanks to a storm system on the 15th that effectively missed the airport. WXLIVE! recorded 4.49" for the first half of the month, but none after the 15th. The peak wind gust was 46 mph on the 12th. Click here for the MWN recap.
June Accuracy
The MWN Forecast accuracy statistics are in and, for the month of June, the MWN forecast once again beat out all of the computer models and the NWS forecast in the temperature category, but narrowly came in second in the dewpoint category, 0.04 degrees behind the North American Model (NAM) average. MWN average temperature error for June was less than 2 degrees -1.92 to be exact - which was the most accurate month by MWN in 11 months. All sources performed less accurately than June of 2008, mainly due to high variability in the second week of the month.
----
Become a fan of MemphisWeather.net on Facebook and follow MWN on Twitter!
Memphis International Airport, Memphis, TN
At the airport, the average temperature was 81.3 degrees, which was 2.6 degrees above normal and nearly 10 degrees above May's average. The highest temperature for the month was 100 degrees on the 23rd, only the second 100-degree reading in June in 14 years, and the lowest was 58 on the 6th. A total of 19 June days saw highs at or above 90 degrees. Record maximum low temperatures were set three times during the month (24th, 27th, and 28th) as lows failed to drop below 80 degrees on four occasions.
Precipitation totaled 2.13", which was over 2.17" below the normal of 4.30" and about 5 inches below May's total. There were only 6 days with measurable rainfall recorded (plus 3 days with a trace of precipitation) and zero days with more than an inch of rain. The peak wind gust was recorded during the derecho on the 12th (53 mph), though some locations in the metro area recorded wind gusts of up to 80 mph that afternoon (if you have yet to read it, see my event analysis of the summer storm). Click here for the NWS climate recap for June.
Bartlett, TN
WXLIVE! began its fifth year of operation on June 23 and is building a decent database of weather events. The average temperature for June was 80.2 degrees, with a max of 98.5 on the 23rd (one of 19 days above 90) and a min of 53.9 degrees on the 6th. Precipitation actually totaled much higher than the airport thanks to a storm system on the 15th that effectively missed the airport. WXLIVE! recorded 4.49" for the first half of the month, but none after the 15th. The peak wind gust was 46 mph on the 12th. Click here for the MWN recap.
June Accuracy
The MWN Forecast accuracy statistics are in and, for the month of June, the MWN forecast once again beat out all of the computer models and the NWS forecast in the temperature category, but narrowly came in second in the dewpoint category, 0.04 degrees behind the North American Model (NAM) average. MWN average temperature error for June was less than 2 degrees -1.92 to be exact - which was the most accurate month by MWN in 11 months. All sources performed less accurately than June of 2008, mainly due to high variability in the second week of the month.
----
Become a fan of MemphisWeather.net on Facebook and follow MWN on Twitter!
Feast-or-famine rainfall on the holiday weekend
The Mid-South (or, a lot of it perhaps) finally got some much needed rainfall over the weekend. After a strong of 20 days with no recorded rain and high temps in the 90s every day, a cold front settled through the area Sunday. Many areas saw a pretty good amount of rain, while others (like my own) barely got enough to keep from having to water again in a few days. The attached precip totals image from the Memphis Doppler radar tells the story. It shows estimated precipitation totals from the morning of July 4 through this morning. The color scale in the lower-right shows the amount of precip in inches.
The image clearly illustrates the feast-or-famine nature of this weekend's rain. Southern middle TN, part of northwest TN, much of north MS and central AR got their fair share, while most of northeast AR missed out. I'd like to highlight Shelby Co. particularly - right in the center of the map. The extreme north part of the county (Millington to Arlington) saw 1-2", the southern part (Whitehaven to Hickory Hill to Collierville) also saw 1-2"+, while the center part of the county, especially north of I-40 (Frayser to Bartlett to Cordova), got less than a 1/4". WXLIVE! recorded a total of 0.09", while flash flooding occurred just a few miles north in Millington! See the pictures below taken from WXLIVE!'s location looking north at the Millington storms Sunday afternoon. (click each for a larger view)
The image clearly illustrates the feast-or-famine nature of this weekend's rain. Southern middle TN, part of northwest TN, much of north MS and central AR got their fair share, while most of northeast AR missed out. I'd like to highlight Shelby Co. particularly - right in the center of the map. The extreme north part of the county (Millington to Arlington) saw 1-2", the southern part (Whitehaven to Hickory Hill to Collierville) also saw 1-2"+, while the center part of the county, especially north of I-40 (Frayser to Bartlett to Cordova), got less than a 1/4". WXLIVE! recorded a total of 0.09", while flash flooding occurred just a few miles north in Millington! See the pictures below taken from WXLIVE!'s location looking north at the Millington storms Sunday afternoon. (click each for a larger view)
The heavy rain, unfortunately, took a toll as one little boy lost his life after being swept out of a retention pond and into a sewer system in Millington. Folks, weather can be dangerous! Please be cautious of things like lightning, flooding, heat, and high wind. It's not just tornadoes that will kill you!
As a follow-up to the Fourth of July, I'd also like to share with you an interesting post from the blog CloudyandCool.com on Fireworks and Air Pollution. I think you might find in interesting.
Saturday, July 4, 2009
Special Weather Statement from MWN
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NWS-MEMPHIS TN / MEMPHISWEATHER.NET
730 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009
...POTENTIAL INDEPENDENCE DAY SEVERE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE MID SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS... SOME OF WHICH COULD CONTAIN SMALL HAIL OR A BRIEF WIND GUST... WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THE PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE NORTH OF THE MEMPHIS METRO AREA BETWEEN 4 PM AND 10 PM. THESE STORMS WILL PROGRESS SOUTH INTO NORTHERN PARTS OF THE METRO AFTER 9 PM AND INTO NORTH MISSISSIPPI AFTER 11 PM. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE SOMEWHAT IN INTENSITY AS THEY PROGRESS SOUTH BUT DAMAGAING WIND AND LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN A THREAT. AS THE FRONT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTH... STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHIFTING SOUTH OF THE METRO AREA.
PEOPLE WITH PLANS TO ATTEND OUTDOOR INDEPENDENCE DAY CELEBRATIONS THIS EVENING SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER... PARTICULARLY LATE IN THE EVENING. IN ADDITION... CONDITIONS WILL BE HOT AND HUMID TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 95-97 DEGREE RANGE AND HEAT INDICES NEAR 100. TAKE APPROPRIATE PRECAUTIONS AS YOU PLAN YOU OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL REMAIN IN THE 80S BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
STAY WITH MEMPHISWEATHER.NET / PDA.MEMPHISWEATHER.NET ON YOUR MOBILE PHONE / FOR THE LATEST ON THIS POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT.
$$
NWS/MWN
----
Become a fan of MemphisWeather.net on Facebook and follow MWN on Twitter!
NWS-MEMPHIS TN / MEMPHISWEATHER.NET
730 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009
...POTENTIAL INDEPENDENCE DAY SEVERE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE MID SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS... SOME OF WHICH COULD CONTAIN SMALL HAIL OR A BRIEF WIND GUST... WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THE PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE NORTH OF THE MEMPHIS METRO AREA BETWEEN 4 PM AND 10 PM. THESE STORMS WILL PROGRESS SOUTH INTO NORTHERN PARTS OF THE METRO AFTER 9 PM AND INTO NORTH MISSISSIPPI AFTER 11 PM. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE SOMEWHAT IN INTENSITY AS THEY PROGRESS SOUTH BUT DAMAGAING WIND AND LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN A THREAT. AS THE FRONT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTH... STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHIFTING SOUTH OF THE METRO AREA.
PEOPLE WITH PLANS TO ATTEND OUTDOOR INDEPENDENCE DAY CELEBRATIONS THIS EVENING SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER... PARTICULARLY LATE IN THE EVENING. IN ADDITION... CONDITIONS WILL BE HOT AND HUMID TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 95-97 DEGREE RANGE AND HEAT INDICES NEAR 100. TAKE APPROPRIATE PRECAUTIONS AS YOU PLAN YOU OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL REMAIN IN THE 80S BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
STAY WITH MEMPHISWEATHER.NET / PDA.MEMPHISWEATHER.NET ON YOUR MOBILE PHONE / FOR THE LATEST ON THIS POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT.
$$
NWS/MWN
----
Become a fan of MemphisWeather.net on Facebook and follow MWN on Twitter!
Friday, July 3, 2009
Independence Day forecast
For those planning to go to fireworks shows and other outoor events tonight or Saturday, weather is looking pretty decent, considering it is early July. It will be very warm (hot to some) and humidity will definitely be higher Saturday than tonight, but I think most rain will hold off until after Saturday evening's events. Rain chances will increase overnight Saturday night and scattered thunderstorms will be around on Sunday as a cold front lingers over the region before moving out early next week. Right now, I would not cancel any outdoor plans, but it might be a good idea to have a "Plan B" for Sunday, just in case Mother Nature decides that Mid-Southerners are parched enough and she relieves some of the dryness with some much-needed rain. For most areas, we're now into our third week of rain-free conditions and the heat of the past few weeks is taking its toll on vegetation - and we don't need golden brown lawns this early in the summer! A complete look at the forecast for Memphis and the Mid-South can be found at MemphisWeather.net.----
Become a fan of MemphisWeather.net on Facebook and follow us on Twitter!
Follow-up to the June 12 Mid-South derecho
Clean-up is ongoing in the Memphis area after "Hurricane Elvis: The Sequel," as some call it, came roaring through late in the afternoon of June 12. It's been 3 weeks since the derecho struck - complete power restoration by MLG&W took a few hours over 1 week to retore the approximately 140,000 customers that lost power during the storm and in a subsequent storm roughly 36 hours later.
My area of town (Bartlett) still has at least a few more weeks of debris removal (mainly trees) to go with the hardest hit area stretching east near Elmore Road from west of Bartlett Boulevard to Kirby-Whitten Road. In fact, city officials have estimated that more debris was created from this storm than the original "Hurricane Elvis" of July 22, 2003, which tended to focus its damage over the heart of Memphis rather than in its northern suburbs. Below you will find the process Bartlett is using to rid themselves of the debris - huge piles of dead trees limbs, branches, and trunks are being ground up into mulch. Be looking for a mulch giveaway at some point!
If you haven't read my event analysis of the storm, it's worth checking out (in my humble opinion) and is written for the layman to understand. There are also links to my damage photos, radar and satellite imagery, etc. at that link as well.
----
Become a fan of MemphisWeather.net on Facebook and follow MWN on Twitter!
----
Become a fan of MemphisWeather.net on Facebook and follow MWN on Twitter!
Wednesday, July 1, 2009
Pyrocumulus in northern Shelby Co.
A very interesting occurrence took place late this afternoon over northern Shelby County. A large fire (of unknown origin) produced enough heat and smoke to create pyrocumulus clouds above the fire. The first picture was taken from many miles away (I-40 and Jackson Ave.) looking north-northeast. The next 3 pictures were taken in sequence over a five-minute period around 5pm from northern Bartlett, looking north-northeast - as the heat first produced the cloud, then near its peak, and finally as it began to dissipate. The cycle repeated itself several times as the fire re-intensified then diminished.
From Wikipedia:
A pyrocumulus cloud is produced by the intense heating of the air from the surface. The intense heat induces convection which causes the air mass to rise to a point of stability, usually in the presence of moisture. Phenomena such as volcanic eruptions, forest fires, and occasionally industrial activities can induce formation of this cloud.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)