The overall weather pattern has become more progressive, and more typical of autumn, this week as fairly quick-hitting cold fronts move through every few days with generally fair weather between (take today's lower 70s for instance!). The next frontal system moves through the region tomorrow (Tuesday) as low pressure over the western Gulf moves directly over the Mid-South during the day. Scattered showers will move up from the south after midnight tonight and envelope the area Tuesday ahead of the low. Instability will be pretty weak, so thunder is not likely though it can't be totally ruled out. Rainfall totals will average 0.75"-1.00" across the metro area.
For those wondering how the weather will affect the Memphis Tigers football game Tuesday night at Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium, showers should be moving out around kickoff, with a 30% chance of rain and temperatures in the mid to upper 50s. So while pre-game celebrations may be a little soggy, hopefully the game itself will be played in mostly dry conditions. Wind will be fairly light, though we know that it can get caught up in the bowl and swirl with any light breeze.
On Wednesday and early Thursday, we will be between systems while the next strong front winds up to our west. By Thursday afternoon, it will be tapping into Gulf moisture and ingredients will be coming together for scattered afternoon thunderstorms. I give the afternoon and evening about a 50% chance right now. By early Friday, chances increase significantly as the front nears the area. Wind will increase at the surface and aloft and temps will hold in the 60s overnight Thursday night, setting the stage for a potential line of strong to severe storms Friday.
By Saturday, the rain will be a distant memory and the weekend looks to be in fine shape with highs in the 65-70 degree range.
As an aside, you have probably noticed that the leaves on the deciduous trees in the area are just starting to change color. Here's an interesting post by my friend from CloudyandCool.com about the necessary ingredients for a splash of beautiful fall colors.
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