Supercell thunderstorms, many producing tornadoes and some of which could be long-track, are lining up over western and central AR at the time of this writing (8:15pm). The graphics above show the upgraded risk area as of 8:00pm tonight. Much of AR has been raised to a High Risk of severe weather with long-track significant tornadoes a distinct threat. A Tornado Watch is in effect until 2am Saturday for these areas.
Surrounding the High Risk, including extreme eastern AR up to the Mississippi River (including West Memphis and counties bordering the river), a Moderate Risk of severe weather has been posted as supercells are likely to track into eastern Arkansas later tonight with the possibility of tornadoes.
A large portion of west Tennessee and all of northwest Mississippi, including the TN/MS portions of the metro region, are included in a Slight Risk for severe weather as storms could bring large hail, damaging wind gusts, and the possibility of a tornado overnight. Graphics showing the outlook areas, as well as the probabilities of tornadoes, large hail, and damaging wind, are shown above.
Stay with MemphisWeather.net for the latest on this developing weather scenario. Our newest addition - the MWN Storm Center - has the latest severe weather outlooks, county-by-county warning information, and updated radar for the Mid-South and maintains the latest information 24x7.
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On Friday afternoon, scattered thunderstorms are expected to form to our southwest over northern LA and southern AR, as well as the ArkLaTex region. These storms could quickly become severe as they go supercellular. The storms will move rapidly northeast and are expected to mainly affect areas near and west of the Mississippi River, with a few expected in the metro, sometime after 4pm and lasting through the evening until after dark (see graphic above). The main threats are large hail and damaging wind, though a few tornadoes are possible with these storms. In fact, the 
There will likely be a break in the action early Saturday morning before the next, potentially more concerning, wave of severe weather hits. A low pressure system is expected to develop to our south and move across eastern AR during the morning and early afternoon hours as it gains strength, driven by very strong jet stream (see NWS graphic above). As it does, storms will quickly develop and become severe in areas near and east of the Mississippi River, including the metropolitan region. The timing of this severe weather episode is expected to be from early Saturday (after 7am) through early afternoon.
