MWN forecast discussion: severe weather chances for the remainder of New Year's Eve

As of mid-afternoon, radar trends and atmospheric analysis indicate the cold front moving across Arkansas with a narrow band of thunderstorms over northeast Arkansas, a few briefly touching severe limits. Meanwhile, to the south, an upper-level disturbance has sparked an area of strong to severe thunderstorms over Louisiana, moving into Mississippi. These storms are expected to spread to the northeast for the remainder of the afternoon.

Mid-day high resolution model data (click for loop of forecast precipitation from the HRRR) indicates that the storms to the southwest will move into north Mississippi and the Memphis area by early this evening as the cold front moves in from the west. This should result in a period of enhanced thunderstorm chances in the 7-10pm timeframe. The greatest severe thunderstorm chances should also occur during this period with the main threat being damaging straight-line wind with lower chances of hail and an isolated tornado.

Prior to 7pm, showers and thunderstorms will remain primarily below severe limits and scattered in nature with very little activity expected before 5pm in the immediate area. After 10pm, expect shower activity to continue for a few hours, perhaps through 2-3am, as temperatures fall behind the front.

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Thoughts on the New Year's Eve severe weather potential

A couple of observations on my part, then the latest statement from the National Weather Service concerning the metropolitan area... Looking at the latest information this morning, a few points stick out in my mind:

First, I believe the overall threat of tornadoes may be somewhat lower than expected yesterday. All of the ingredients, including the strongest dynamics and the greatest instability, don't quite seem to be phasing as well as I would like to see. This certainly does NOT rule out strong to severe thunderstorms capable of damaging wind or isolated large hail. In fact, I believe our main threat will be strong wind with storms near the cold front during the evening hours (see #3 below).

Second, I do not believe we'll see a prolonged rain event in the Mid-South during the day today, and possibly not this evening. Showers and thunderstorms will tend to be more scattered this afternoon, with any steady rain most likely just behind the front for a couple of hours. I expect that rain will be moving out by the time the guitar drops on Beale Street, ushering in 2011. This does not hold true for areas east of the immediate metro area, where a slower progression of the front could mean more rain for eastern portions of west TN and north and central MS.

Third, I expect to see the metro area near the north end of a developing squall line during the evening hours (between 5-9pm). The strongest storms should be over MS, where the heaviest rain will also fall. This line of storms could produce wind gusts in excess of 50 mph, or near severe limits, as it passes through the metro area during the evening (or roughly between the final horn at the Liberty Bowl and New Year's Eve festivities really ramping up).

Details and updated information will be available throughout the day on MemphisWeather.net, MWN on Twitter (@memphisweather1 and @shelbyalerts), and Facebook.


From the NWS:

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
907 AM CST FRI DEC 31 2010

...SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY LATER TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-SOUTH...

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA TODAY WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A SEVERE WEATHER EVENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. A WARM FRONT POSITIONED ACROSS CENTRAL ARKANSAS INTO NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI THIS MORNING WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TODAY. THE AIRMASS TO THE SOUTH OF THIS FRONT HAS BECOME WARM... HUMID... AND UNSTABLE. THIS UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE WESTERN HALF OF THE MID-SOUTH BY EARLY AFTERNOON PRIOR TO THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. THE INCREASED INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH STRONG ATMOSPHERIC WINDS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER RISK WILL EXIST ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 55 THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING... INCLUDING NORTHEAST AND EAST ARKANSAS... THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL... SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE... AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. IN THESE LOCATIONS... SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE QUICKLY EAST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. ANY SEVERE STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES. THERE WILL BE A SECONDARY THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL. THE BEST TIMING FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THESE LOCATIONS WILL BE BETWEEN 2 PM CST AND 8 PM CST.

RESIDENTS ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH ARE URGED TO REMAIN UPDATED WITH THE LATEST FORECAST INFORMATION AND PLAN NOW FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BE PREPARED TO SEEK SAFE SHELTER IN THE EVENT SEVERE WEATHER WARNINGS ARE ISSUED AND SEVERE WEATHER BECOMES IMMINENT.

Update on New Year's Eve severe weather threat

MWN is continuing to closely monitor the possibility of strong to severe thunderstorms in the Mid-South for New Year's Eve, especially with the large crowds of people expected outdoors for the Liberty Bowl game and Beale Street and other New Year's festivities. We have just gotten off a conference call with the National Weather Service office in Memphis discussing the threats, timing, and probabilities of the event.

The graphic above contains information relayed by the NWS. The greatest concern is for locations from Shelby County to the west and south, including most of eastern AR and northwest MS. These areas in purple are under a slight risk of severe weather as defined by the Storm Prediction Center. A slightly reduced threat encompasses much of the rest of west TN, including the rest of the metro and Jackson, as well as northeast MS. The primary threats with this system will be damaging straight-line winds and isolated, but possibly strong, tornadoes, especially west and south of Memphis. For the metro area, storms could begin moving in anytime during the afternoon, but particularly late afternoon (after 4pm), with a line of storms expected along the cold front during the evening hours (sometime within an hour or two of 8pm). See below for another graphic showing the meteorological setup, courtesy of the NWS. Following the cold front, rain will be likely for several hours before ending after midnight.

MemphisWeather.net will have complete coverage of this weather event. The MWN Storm Center will show the latest watches/warnings if any are issued, as well as radar imagery. Follow us on Facebook and/or Twitter (@memphisweather1) for up-to-the-minute information. Also, be sure to sign up for FREE severe weather alerts by e-mail for any metro county, or on Twitter follow @shelbyalerts for Shelby Co. alerts.

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Chance for severe weather to ring out the old year?

After a pretty (cold) Christmas weekend with snow flurries and/or snow showers depending on where you were, the weather has taken a turn and southerly wind is starting to bring in warm air and Gulf moisture by the truckload. In fact, temperatures are somewhat difficult to forecast (especially overnight lows) this week as the lows are occurring in the evening hours with steady or rising temp overnight for 3 straight nights! In the end, we'll be near 70 Friday afternoon for the kickoff of the Autozone Liberty Bowl featuring the Georgia Bulldogs and Central Florida Knights. Intermittent rain showers will also be possible through Friday.

Most of my readers who have been here for a winter or two know that when we hit the 60s at this time of year, it likely ends with a crash - typically a crash of thunder! By Friday, a potent weather system will collide with the moisture-laden Gulf air over the lower and mid-Mississippi River Valley. Wind at all levels of the atmosphere will be strong with this system (and out ahead of it) as well. The stage will be set for thunderstorms, possibly some strong ones, Friday afternoon and evening.

The Storm Prediction Center has placed the area under a SLIGHT RISK of severe weather (see graphic) with the impending cold front as ingredients could phase enough to produce damaging wind, large hail, and possibly isolated tornadoes due to strong low level wind shear. We'll keep a close eye on this situation, but at this time I would encourage those attending the Liberty Bowl game to be prepared for rain and thunderstorms and keep a close weather eye to the sky in case severe weather approaches. The time frame most conducive for any severe weather appears to be between 3-9pm. I expect that after 9pm (or about when the cold front passes through), rain will stick around for New Year's Eve festivities downtown (and elsewhere) but the storm threat will be over. Temperatures will fall quickly from the 60s to the 40s behind the front and wind will remain gusty, but from the northwest rather than the south.

MemphisWeather.net will have complete coverage of the weather event on Friday. Follow us on Facebook and/or Twitter (@memphisweather1) for up-to-the-minute information. Also, be sure to sign up for FREE severe weather alerts by e-mail for any metro county, or on Twitter follow @shelbyalerts for Shelby Co. alerts.

Pattern shift means warmer and stormier in the Mid-South

It's been a cold December f0r the Mid-South with an average temperature of 39.1 degrees at Memphis International Airport, or nearly 5 degrees below "normal," and 19 days with lows at or below freezing. The good thing about the cold weather is that it was in place as low pressure moved by to our south and a cold front came through, bringing snowflakes on Christmas weekend. In fact, many places east of the Mid-South, including northern AL, southeast TN , and northern GA, saw a few inches of snow on Christmas Day. That storm then turned into a major Nor'Easter that is bringing blizzard conditions to the Northeast, dumping snow measured in feet from New York City to Boston. (Incidentally, it's also the same system that flooded southern California, Nevada, and Utah last week.)

Pattern Shift

A shift is now in the process of occurring that will transition the overall weather pattern over North America (and even parts of Europe, where snow has also crippled travel and commerce for a couple of weeks). The new pattern will resemble more of what meteorologists are used to seeing in La Nina winters, in which the jet stream flows on a more northerly track. That will bring storms across the northern tier of the U.S. and into the Ohio Valley rather than across the southern U.S. and will mean warmer weather (generally) for the southern U.S., but also chances for a more stormy pattern. Rainfall has been well below normal for the month of December in the Mid-South, but that could change over the next couple of weeks. (More on the global pattern shift can be found on Weather Underground blogger Jeff Master's post from earlier today, in which he also recaps the East Coast Blizzard. It's worth a look.)

Repercussions for the Mid-South

As the trough currently over the eastern U.S. moves over the Atlantic, a new trough will form over the west and begin moving towards the area. Ahead of the trough, surface high pressure will move to our east, bringing wind around to the south by tomorrow and starting a fairly significant warm-up. One piece of energy will move through on Wednesday as a warm front lifts north, bringing high chances of rain during the day. Moist southerly flow will continue Thursday as a couple of low pressure systems begin moving north-northeast through the Plains. A chance of showers will exist in the Mid-South, but mainly it will be much warmer (highs of 60+) and breezes will pick up. For New Year's Eve, a frontal system will move across the region, bringing another round of rain. With the right dynamics in place, thunderstorms could also be likely with a few possibly strong to severe. The map below shows the current probability of precipitation for Friday night (6pm Fri until 6am Sat).

Plan ahead

There are many parameters that are still unknown at this point, but those with plans, particularly outdoors, on New Year's Eve (day or evening) should monitor this system carefully and watch for later statements or advisories. That would include those attending the Liberty Bowl game featuring SEC powerhouse Georgia and Conference USA champ Central Florida and also those heading downtown to Beale Street for New Year's Eve celebrations. At the very least, plan to have umbrellas or ponchos handy (not sure if umbrellas are allowed in the stadium or not). Heavy rain is definitely a strong possibility, even if severe weather is not.

MemphisWeather.net will keep you abreast of the latest forecasts and conditions, as will this blog, and MWN on Facebook and Twitter. Now would be a good time to sign up for severe weather alerts by e-mail for any of the metro counties or follow @shelbyalerts on Twitter for weather alerts for Shelby County. These services pass the info directly on to you as soon as they are received from the National Weather Service.

Top 10 Weather Events of 2010

Finally, I'll also direct you to one last article that you should check out. Friend and blogger Paul Yeager of CloudyandCool.com and AOLNews contributor recaps the Top 10 (U.S.) Weather Events of 2010. I strongly agree with #1, which happened to directly impact the Memphis metro area... can you guess?

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Scattered Christmas Day snow showers expected across the Mid-South

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
550 AM CST SAT DEC 25 2010

...LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE MID-SOUTH...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE MID-SOUTH TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS... THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL... WEST TENNESSEE... AND EXTREME NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. A DUSTING UP TO ONE INCH MAY ACCUMULATE IN SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THIS BROAD AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING.

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS THROUGH THE DAY AS WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES MAY BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THIS AREA.

IF YOU ARE PLANNING TRAVEL TODAY... PLEASE BE AWARE THAT MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI INTO NORTHERN ALABAMA. ELSEWHERE... EXERCISE CAUTION DRIVING IN AREAS WHERE SNOW SHOWERS RESULT IN ACCUMULATIONS.

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Special Weather Statement concerning Christmas snow, 12/24/10

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NWS-MEMPHIS TN / MEMPHISWEATHER.NET
820 AM CST FRI DEC 24 2010

...LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS DAY...

A WHITE CHRISTMAS MAY BE IN STORE FOR NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE MID-SOUTH. A STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

IN THE METROPOLITAN MEMPHIS AREA... PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS LIGHT RAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUING INTO THIS EVENING. A CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN A DUSTING AND ONE HALF INCH EXPECTED BEFORE PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.

SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD REDEVELOP AREAWIDE ON CHRISTMAS DAY AND PERSIST INTO SUNDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH STORM TOTALS OF UP TO ONE-HALF TO ONE INCH POSSIBLE BY CHRISTMAS NIGHT.

THE LAST OCCURRENCE OF MEASURABLE SNOW ON THE GROUND ON CHRISTMAS MORNING WAS 2004... HOWEVER THE ONLY MEASURABLE SNOWFALL RECORDED IN MEMPHIS / SINCE THE LATE 1800S / ON CHRISTMAS DAY OCCURRED IN 1913.

THERE STILL REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE OVERALL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND TYPES. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES MAY BE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY WEEKEND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-SOUTH. STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND MEMPHISWEATHER.NET FOR UPDATES OR POSSIBLE ADVISORIES.

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Updated statement on Christmas winter weather potential

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
717 AM CST THU DEC 23 2010

...SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW STILL EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY CHRISTMAS MORNING FOR PARTS OF THE MID-SOUTH...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRAVERSE THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY... AND EMERGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY NIGHT. A WINTRY MIX IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON WELL NORTH OF THE MEMPHIS METROPOLITAN AREA. MAINLY RAIN IS EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40 IN EASTERN ARKANSAS WITH VERY LITTLE FALLING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO THE NORTH... PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD FRIDAY EVENING. AT THIS POINT... IT APPEARS RAIN WILL FALL IN THE METRO AREA WITH A MIX OF PRECIPITATION /RAIN-SNOW-SLEET/ FARTHER NORTH.

COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN PUSHING SOUTH LATER FRIDAY EVENING AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT ALLOWING PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE TO SNOW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THE RAIN/SNOW LINE SHOULD BE LOCATED NEAR THE TENNESSEE/MISSISSIPPI STATE LINE AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE SYSTEM WILL PUSH EAST AND LEAVE A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES... POSSIBLY MIXED WITH DRIZZLE... IN ITS WAKE FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.

LATEST SNOWFALL PROJECTIONS INDICATE AROUND AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE METRO AREA BY SATURDAY. SLIGHTLY LOWER ACCUMULATIONS AROUND ONE HALF INCH ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI/TENNESSEE STATE LINE DUE TO A LATER CHANGE OVER TO SNOW.

WHILE THERE ARE STILL UNCERTAINTIES WITH THIS FORECAST... IT APPEARS PORTIONS OF THE MID-SOUTH MAY BE PLACED UNDER A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN LATER FORECASTS. THIS IS A LARGE SYSTEM AFFECTING MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY SO IF YOU PLAN TO TRAVEL... STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECASTS.

NWS/MWN

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MWN weighs in (again) on possibility of a White Christmas

A couple of days ago, I poo-poo'd the idea of a White Christmas, mainly because I'm a grinch. OK, I'm kidding. Actually, because at 5 days out, and given our history (no measurable snowfall on Christmas Day in nearly a century), I didn't want to wish-cast in some snow and then have to disappoint everyone by taking it out. It's now 48 hours closer to Christmas and the National Weather Service is jumping on board, as are local media outlets. This morning I had seen enough (from the computer models, not from every other media outlet) to persuade me to put snow chances back in the MWN forecast for Christmas.

Here's MWN's official stance as of this minute... subject to change on a whim. Two pieces of atmospheric energy will split the area Friday night and Saturday - one to the north and one to the south. Their proximity to the metro area (and relative strength) determines our precipitation chances. I now am fairly convinced that most of the daytime hours Friday will be dry. I'm sticking with a 20% chance of rain in the afternoon.

By evening, as colder air moves in, some of the rain could mix with light sleet. Again, minimal amounts are expected, if any. After midnight, the atmosphere moistens up enough to start discussing some accumulation and cold air deepens over the region. I believe we could see a round of light snow between midnight and 9am Christmas Day (Saturday). Depending on the scenario that plays out, it could be a dusting to possibly an inch in the northern areas (say Tipton Co. and north). The image below is a Memphis sounding from this morning's GFS computer model valid Christmas morning at 6:00am. It shows moisture in the lowest ~6,000 feet of the atmosphere (red and green lines nearly touching) and temperatures below freezing in the entire column (red line less than 0 Celsius).

During the day on Christmas, temperatures will remain near freezing and scattered light snow showers will be possible throughout the day. Very little if any accumulation is expected from these snow showers, maybe as much as a quarter to half inch. In all, I'd be surprised to see anyone in the metro area with more than an inch and I believe a quarter to half inch total is much more likely. I am not guaranteeing snow, but I am saying that it looks more likely than it did yesterday.

The last "White Christmas" (snow on the ground Christmas morning) in Memphis was 2004 (2" from a previous day storm). The last time measurable snow fell ON Christmas Day was 1913! Here's to opening presents with flakes falling outside!

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NWS renders early opinion on a possible White Christmas

Here is what the National Weather Service is thinking regarding the possibility that Memphis could see the first Christmas Day snowfall in nearly a century:

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
547 AM CST WED DEC 22 2010

...VERY RARE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL EVENT LOOKING MORE LIKELY FOR CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT AND CHRISTMAS MORNING...

LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES WILL TRACK EASTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE... AN UPPER LEVEL PIECE OF ENERGY WILL DIVE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.

IT APPEARS THESE TWO FEATURES WILL SPREAD A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SOME SLEET ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS... THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL.. AND WESTERN TENNESSEE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD FRIDAY NIGHT AND TURN TO ALL SNOW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS COLDER AIR ADVANCES ON THE MIDSOUTH. THE SNOW COULD PERSIST INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

FORECAST MODELS ARE NOW BEGINNING TO CONVERGE ON A GENERAL SOLUTION... BUT EXACT DETAILS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN. AT THIS POINT... 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW COULD FALL ON MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING LEADING TO A WHITE CHRISTMAS IN MANY AREAS AND PRODUCING SOME TRAVEL PROBLEMS.

A WHITE CHRISTMAS IS VERY RARE FOR THIS PART OF THE COUNTRY. THE LAST TIME MEMPHIS HAD AT LEAST A HALF INCH OF SNOW ON THE GROUND MAKING FOR A WHITE CHRISTMAS WAS IN 2004. EVEN MORE RARE IS MEASURABLE SNOWFALL ON CHRISTMAS DAY. THE LAST TIME THAT HAPPENED WAS IN 1913.

THOSE WITH TRAVEL PLANS SHOULD STAY ABREAST TO THE LATEST FORECASTS. THIS IS A COMPLICATED SYSTEM AND THE FORECAST IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

$$

BORGHOFF


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I have bad news... and bad news. Which do you want first?

I'll start with the bad news for Christmas first...

I've been hemming and hawing (is that how you write that, I don't think I have ever actually typed those words...) on the threat of wintry precipitation for Christmas Eve / Christmas Day. As of this afternoon, the MWN Forecast this afternoon will only reflect rain with the late-week cold front, due to arrive on Friday. For now, I'm more certain that the cold air will arrive after the precipitation departs than not, thus the decision to remove snow flurries from the forecast.

While I know this disappoints many of you, remember it's only Monday (and I messed up last Friday night's snow forecast). It could change 5 times between now and then. However, given the recent trends in computer model data and my general disdain for hyping a miniscule snow chance (especially on the day ranked #1 by readers of this blog for wanting snow to fall), I am not going to wish-cast it into existence. We'll see how it works out and I promise to put it back in the forecast if I think I can do it without wish-casting or hype. Stay tuned...

Second, while the vast majority of us (except perhaps my avid Kindergarten following) will not be around in 84 years (the next time this happens), we're going to miss a chance to see the coincidence of a total lunar eclipse on the winter solstice. That same forecast mentioned above indicates cloudy skies for tonight with light rain or drizzle moving in. Sorry about that. I know, two disappoints in one post is likely more than you can handle. I'll try and make the next one more upbeat. The next total lunar eclipse will be in just over 3 years - hopefully you'll be around to enjoy it with me!

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Out of this world! Astronomical adventures of December 21, 2010

A couple of events in the world of astronomy will line up on Tuesday for the first time in 372 years and won't happen again for another 84 years. Most people probably know of both, but may not have put two and two together yet to realize they happen on the same day. The most obvious is the occurrence of the winter solstice, or what we commonly call the first day of winter. The other is a total lunar eclipse, which will be visible to all North Americans given the right weather conditions.

Starting with the eclipse... a lunar eclipse occurs when the Earth lines up directly between the sun and the moon, causing the Earth's shadow to be thrown over the moon. A total lunar eclipse is when the entirety of the moon is within the Earth's shadow and is less common than a partial eclipse. The next total lunar eclipse visible in the United States is not for another 3+ year - April 15, 2014. When the eclipse occurs, the moon will turn grey, then an orangish-red color as the eclipse becomes total, before returning to it's normal state.

Graphic courtesy Mr. Eclipse. Click for larger image.

In order to view the eclipse, you'd have to get up in the middle of the night (early Tuesday morning). The partial phase begins at 12:33 am CST. The total eclipse lasts from 1:41 am-2:53 am, or a lengthy 72 minutes, with "mid-eclipse" occurring at 2:17 am. The eclipse will be complete by 4:01 am. The graphic above shows these times as well (subtract one hour to convert from Eastern Standard Time). The only problem with Memphis viewing conditions will be the weather. Unfortunately, as of this writing (Sunday afternoon), MemphisWeather.net is forecasting overcast conditions with a chance of light rain during that time frame so we may have to settle for pictures or video from other parts of the country, or you can check out a cool animation and see what you might miss at ShadowandSubstance.com. You can also see a series of photos taken of a lunar eclipse several years ago by MemphisWeather.net here. If weather conditions improve, we'll be sure to let you know!

The other event, the winter solstice (Wikipedia), is the point in time when the Earth's axis is most inclined away the sun, yielding the shortest day of the year for the Northern Hemisphere and the beginning of our winter. It is also the day when the apparent position of the sun is the lowest in the sky for those in the Northern Hemisphere. Areas around the south pole get light all day as the Earth rotates, while those areas at the north pole are in darkness all day. (So I guess Santa Claus will be finishing up his list with the assistance of gas lanterns or a cozy fireplace). The exact timing of the solstice this year is 5:38 pm CST.

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Thoughts on the current winter weather situation

A Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect until noon for the metro counties (3pm for Tipton Co. and points north) as light precipitation has developed and is moving east through the area. I expect light precip to continue to develop through the morning hours and affect the region as a warm front to our south starts moving in our direction.

Temperatures and dewpoints are crucial at this time, with the majority of the suburban area remaining just above freezing (35 at Memphis Int'l seems to be the warmest spot) and dewpoints still in the teens. I believe that as precipitation continues, temperatures will drop slightly and dewpoints will rise - caused by a process called evaporative cooling, in which moisture falling through a column of dry air moistens that column and cools the surrounding air.

A small amount of evaporative cooling will bring temps to near or just below freezing for a few hours this morning before rising again (back above freezing) by mid-morning. The biggest question is whether enough precipitation will affect the region to cause those temps to fall to freezing. For now, I believe that we will continue to see additional precipitation forming and, assuming this occurs, expect temps to dip slightly before rebounding later in the morning. Thus, a chance of freezing rain and/or sleet through mid-morning throughout the metro.

With temperatures already so close to freezing, please be extremely cautious on your commute into work or school this morning. A degree here or there could mean the difference between a glaze of ice (which is hard to see on roadways) and just wet streets.

MemphisWeather.net, this blog, and MWN on Facebook and Twitter will be updated throughout the morning. Stay tuned...

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Memphis area school closings for December 15, 2010

Memphis metropolitan area school closings for Wednesday, December 15, 2010 will be posted on the MWN Blog as they are received. Click the "Metro School Closings" link in the blog menu at the top of the page or click here. Feel free to submit your information to us by e-mail at closings@memphisweather.net or via Facebook or Twitter (@memphisweather1).

Also check out these winter weather resources on MWN:

WXLIVE! - live realtime conditions from the northern suburbs of Memphis

Winter weather watches/warnings/statements by e-mail

MWN StormView Radar - interactive radar with winter precipitation mode

The MWN Forecast - the most accurate public forecast for the Memphis area

MWN on Facebook and Twitter - for more rapid updates on changing weather conditions

MWN Mobile - current conditions, radar, and forecast for those on the go

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Updated Winter Weather Advisory for the Mid-South

A Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect for Shelby County and points south and west (Crittenden Co. and northeast MS) from 6am until noon on Wednesday. Light freezing rain and/or sleet will move into the Memphis metro area around or shortly after daybreak and could affect rush hour travel. Areas north and east of Shelby County, including Fayette and Tipton Counties, will be under the Advisory until 3pm as precipitation lingers in a frozen state a little longer. Any freezing rain and/or sleet will change over to light rain by noon in the suburban area.

Minor accumulations are possible during the morning, but rising temperatures will contribute to melting of any ice by early afternoon in the city and immediate suburbs, as well as over north MS. Locations north and east of a line from Jonesboro to Jackson to Corinth should be prepared for the possibility of more significant icing that could hamper travel, particularly on secondary roadways, by late morning to afternoon. Temperatures may not rise above freezing until late in the afternoon in those areas.

Temperatures will remain well above freezing Wednesday night, thus there is no threat of winter weather Wednesday night or Thursday. The next chance for wintry precipitation arrives Friday night. Check the MWN Forecast for details.

MWN on the web, Facebook, and Twitter (@memphisweather1) will have all of the information you need to stay on top of this winter weather scenario.

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Winter Weather Advisory for Wednesday, December 15, 2010

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN

CIRRUS WEATHER SOLUTIONS / MEMPHISWEATHER.NET

1115 AM CST TUE DEC 14 2010

...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET TO AFFECT THE MID-SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY...

.A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA AND GRADUALLY PUSH A WARM FRONT INTO THE MID-SOUTH BY LATE WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION THAT WILL FALL THROUGH THE CURRENT SHALLOW ARCTIC AIRMASS OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE LIFT FROM THE WARM FRONT AND THE SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES WITH PRODUCE A MIXTURE OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 3 PM CST WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY... WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 3 PM CST WEDNESDAY.

* SLEET/ICE ACCUMULATIONS: LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

* TIMING: WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BY 6AM. IT IS EXPECTED THAT TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING BY LATE MORNING IN THE METRO AREA AND EARLY AFTERNOON IN AREAS NORTH OF THE SUBURBS... ENDING THE THREAT OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION. ANY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE THAT ACCUMULATE SHOULD MELT BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES WARM.

* IMPACTS: ROADS WILL BECOME SLICK QUICKLY WITH SECONDARY ROADS AND BRIDGES POSSIBLY BECOMING ICE-COVERED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW... SLEET... OR FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

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Possibility of winter weather Wednesday morning

I was going to blog on the possibility of freezing rain Wednesday morning and then read Ryan Vaughan's blog post on the same topic. Ryan (@ryanvaughan on Twitter) is the Chief Meteorologist at KAIT-TV 8 in Jonesboro, a great guy, and very knowledgable about all things weather. He explains complicated weather phenomena in an easy-to-understand manner, as any TV weatherman worth his salt should be able to do.

I decided after reading his post that I couldn't do any better, particularly explaining the weather setup, so I decided to just share it! A very similar scenario is expected in Memphis early Wednesday with the timing of any potential winter precipitation being roughly between 4-10am. As in Jonesboro, any freezing precipitation should be very light with little accumulation. But of course it doesn't take much when it is glaze! Remember we're talking about Memphis drivers (yes, I mean you)!

So here it is: Ryan's Blog: Ice This Week?

Check back with MemphisWeather.net for the latest on the possibility of winter weather in the Mid-South.

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Updated statement concerning Arctic cold blast

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
CIRRUS WEATHER SOLUTIONS - MEMPHISWEATHER.NET
335 PM CST SAT DEC 11 2010

...BLAST OF WINTER EXPECTED TO BEGIN TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...

A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH TONIGHT... BRINGING VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CAUSE WINDS TO STRENGTHEN LATE TONIGHT AND PERSIST UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 25 MPH AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

HIGHS SUNDAY ARE LIKELY TO ONLY REACH THE MID 30S. COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE SPILLING SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID-SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE MID TEENS. THESE TEMPERATURES IN COMBINATION WITH THE GUSTY WINDS SHOULD SEND WIND CHILL READINGS NEAR ZERO BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST MONDAY WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING AND LOWS AGAIN IN THE TEENS TUESDAY MORNING.

IN ADDITION TO THE COLD... MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW MAY PRODUCE SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. LITTLE...IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

RESIDENTS OF THE MID-SOUTH SHOULD PREPARE FOR A BIG SHIFT TO VERY COLD WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONSIDER WINTERIZING YOUR VEHICLE... LETTING FAUCETS DRIP SLIGHTLY TO AVOID BURSTING PIPES...AND BRINGING OUTDOOR PETS INSIDE FROM THE COLD.

$$

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NWS statement concerning Arctic cold blast Saturday night through Monday

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
813 PM CST FRI DEC 10 2010

...BLAST OF WINTER EXPECTED TO BEGIN SATURDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL SEND AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH SATURDAY EVENING. RAIN WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS AND THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE MIDSOUTH FOR SATURDAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE RAIN... BUT DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY NO SEVERE WEATHER IS IN THE FORECAST.

STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE PLAINS BEHIND THE SYSTEM... WHICH WILL AID IN SENDING VERY COLD AIR SOUTH. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CAUSE WINDS TO STRENGTHEN SATURDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 25 MPH AND WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME FRAME. WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.

HIGHS SUNDAY ARE LIKELY TO ONLY TOP OFF AROUND FREEZING ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40 WITH MID OR UPPER 30S ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE SPILLING SOUTHEAST INTO THE MIDSOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE LOW TEENS NORTH OF I-40 AND MID TEENS ELSEWHERE. THESE TEMPERATURES IN COMBINATION WITH THE GUSTY WINDS SHOULD SEND WIND CHILL READINGS BETWEEN 5 ABOVE ZERO AND 7 BELOW ZERO BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S.

IN ADDITION TO THE COLD... MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW COULD ALLOW FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE... NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. LITTLE... IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

RESIDENTS OF THE MIDSOUTH SHOULD PREPARE FOR A BIG SHIFT TOWARD VERY COLD WEATHER LATER THIS WEEKEND. CONSIDER WINTERIZING YOUR VEHICLE... LETTING FAUCETS DRIP SLIGHTLY TO AVOID BURSTING PIPES... AND BRINGING OUTDOOR PETS INSIDE FROM THE COLD.

$$

BORGHOFF/PWB

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A couple days reprieve before the freezer door opens again

The Mid-South is on the backside of the first major blast of Arctic winter air, having been through 4 days of well below normal temperatures, with highs near 40 and lows well into the 20s (teens in some areas away from the concrete of the city). The weather will continue it's roller coaster pattern for the next 7 days, with two "peaks" and one more deep valley in the next week.

High pressure will move overhead tonight, bringing perhaps one of the coldest nights of the season to date, as wind dies down and skies will be clear. Look for temperatures in the teens in outlying areas tonight and lower 20s in the big city. Southerly wind picks up tomorrow, as opposed to the north wind of the past several days, as high pressure moves east and the area sets up for the next weather-maker. The mercury will rise quickly tomorrow morning, landing us near 50 tomorrow afternoon as high clouds increase. Southerly wind continues into Friday, keeping low temps Friday morning "up" near freezing with highs Friday a downright balmy 54 degrees!

We'll see showers (of rain) develop Friday night as low pressure moves towards the area. Clouds and wind will keep temperatures in the 40s. As the low tracks through the Mid-South Saturday, there will be very high rain chances, some thunder possible, and rain amounts could reach an inch or more (see expected precipitation totals on the graphic above). The heaviest precip is expected Saturday afternoon. The low will be followed by another blast of very cold air. Wind shifts to the north and temps drop quickly Saturday evening with a low near 30 Sunday morning. Lingering precipitation could change over to light snow, with little accumulation expected, late Saturday evening.

Sunday will likely be unpleasantly cold as clouds hang on at least early in the day, with flurries still possible, wind blowing at 20-25 mph, and temperatures staying in the 30s throughout the day. This Arctic blast will be part of an outbreak of very cold air that will invade the midwestern U.S. for the start of next week (see Accuweather's wind chill forecast for 7am Monday above, showing single digit "feels like" temps for the Mid-South and -20s over much of the nation's heartland).

Monday will be sunny but continued very cold, though this bout of cold air will not hang around as long as the latest one and we'll be back on the upswing by mid-week. Another system could bring rain by that time, but for now the forecast remains dry until computer models get a better handle on the situation.

The MWN Forecast for the metro area can be found here.

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November Climate Data and MWN Forecast Accuracy

Memphis International Airport, Memphis, TN
November is generally a transition month in the Mid-South as winter draws closer, the growing season ends, and there are typically some very pleasant days. While the drought of previous months abated, temperatures averaged a little above normal as well. Even with the rain, the area was still classified as being in a moderate to severe drought as the month closed.

For November, the average temperature was 53.9 degrees, which was 1.6 degrees above normal. The average high temperature was a pleasant 64.7 degrees and the average low was 43.0. The freezing mark was reached four times during the month, with the 2010 growing season ending on the 6th as the mercury dropped to 32. The lowest temperature for the month was 31 degrees and the highest temperature was 79.

Precipitation for the month of November totaled 6.57", or 0.81" above the normal of 5.76". It was the first month since July 2010 in which monthly precipitation was above normal. There were 12 days with measurable rainfall and the maximum 24-hour total was 2.04" on the 25th-26th. A trace of sleet/ice pellets was recorded on the 26th as Arctic air arrived just as rainfall was ending very early on Black Friday morning. The peak wind gust was 38 mph on the 24th, while the average wind speed for the month was 7.1 mph. Click here for a daily statistical recap for Memphis International for November.

Bartlett, TN
The average temperature for November at the WXLIVE! station in north Bartlett was 51.4 degrees with a maximum of 79.6 on the 1st and a minimum of 25.0 degrees on the 6th.

November precipitation ended above normal with a rainfall total of 5.98". A co-located manual gauge used for the CoCoRaHS program measured 6.32". A trace of sleet/ice pellets was recorded on the 26th and again on the 30th. The peak wind gust was 29 mph on the 24th. Average relative humidity was 70%. Click here for a daily recap on MemphisWeather.net.

MWN Forecast Accuracy
For the month of November, the average temperature error in all MWN temperature forecasts was 3.17 degrees, lower than all compared computer models, including the National Weather Service. Nearly 50% of the MWN temperature forecasts for the month were within 2 degrees of the actual temperature. MWN's forecasts extend out five periods (or 2.5 days). For dewpoint accuracy, the MWN forecast was also the best of the data sources at 3.02 degrees average error and was within 2 degrees of the actual dewpoint 50% of the time. Detailed accuracy statistics can be found here.

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Recap of 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season

As predicted by all of the major players at the start of this year's Atlantic hurricane season, 2010 proved to be a very active year. The factors which came together to make this year about twice as active as the average year included a moderate La Nina event in the eastern Pacific resulting in lower than normal wind shear over the Atlantic, and very warm sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic and Caribbean.

Fortunately, there also was also persistent high pressure along the Gulf Coast, the Bermuda High was displaced eastward from it's normal position, and more strong troughs of low pressure over the U.S. East Coast than usual. These factors combined to produce an "offense that couldn't score from the Red Zone" as Accuweather's Joe Bastardi metaphorically stated -- an abnormally high number of storms with an almost unprecedented lack of U.S. landfalls.

At the end of the season, a total of 19 storms were named, 12 of which became hurricanes, and 5 of which reached major (category 3+) status, compared to the long-term averages of 9 storms, 3 hurricanes, and 2 majors. The chart below shows how some of the more well-known forecasters did with their early-season projections:

NOAA/NWS	14-23	8-14	3-7
Klotzbach/Gray (CSU – 6/2/10)	18	10	5
Joe Bastardi (AccuWeather)	16-18	10-11	5
Actual	19	12	5
Long-term Average	11	6	2

Some of the highlights of the 2010 season:

• The 19 named storms was the 3rd highest total in recorded history (behind 2005 and 1933).
• The 12 hurricanes tied 2010 with 1969 as the 2nd highest hurricane count (first: 2005 with 15).
• Despite a season that was roughly twice as active as the average year, only one weak Tropical Storm (Bonnie) made a direct U.S. landfall, hitting south FL in August with 40 mph wind. Hermine narrowly missed direct landfall, striking extreme northeastern Mexico, but brought flooding to the Rio Grande basin of southern TX. Hurricane Earl also grazed the eastern seaboard. Typically, about 1/3 of all named storms reach a U.S. coastline.
• Until 2010, there have been no seasons with 10+ hurricanes in which none struck the U.S.
• There have been 18 consecutive hurricanes, dating back to 2008, which have missed the U.S.
• No major hurricanes (category 3+) have hit the U.S. since Wilma in 2005 (Katrina was also a 2005 storm). This 5-year drought has not happened since 1915 and there is no precedent for a 6-year period without a U.S. land-falling major hurricane (uh-oh?).
• There were 3 hurricanes occurring simultaneously on September 16 (Karl, Igor, Julia), which has occurred only 8 other times in recorded history (see the satellite image of these storms above). On the previous day (September 15), Igor and Julia were simultaneously at category 4 strength, only the 2nd time this has been known to occur.
• A total of four category 4+ storms occurred in 2010 (tied for 3rd for most cat 4+ storms in a year) and all four occurred within a 20-day span -- also a record.

We extend our thanks to Jeff Masters at Weather Underground and his sources, as well as NOAA, for originally publishing many of these stats.

If you'd like to take a look at MWN Blog posts from earlier this year that referenced the "upcoming" season and for comparison, check these out:

• Looking Ahead: Hurricane Season 2010
• Atlantic Hurricane Season begins Tuesday
• Colorado State hurricane experts update their 2010 outlook

You may also be interested in a NOAA story on the 2010 season, a "gentle giant" as it is referred to. You can find it here. It will be interesting to see what 2011 has in store and whether or not the streak of non-land-falling storms continues!

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