BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED...CORRECTED
CIVIL EMERGENCY MESSAGE
MEMPHIS SHELBY COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
332 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2011
THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE MEMPHIS SHELBY COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY.
FLOOD WARNING
ALL SHELBY RESIDENTS SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTION NOW...ESPECIALLY IF YOU LIVE WITHIN THE 100 YEAR FLOOD PLAIN OF RIVERS AND STREAMS...TO BE PREPARED TO EVACUATE HOMES AND BUSINESSES IF FLOODING OCCURS.
NEAR RECORD FLOODING IS FORECAST ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AS IT BORDERS SHELBY COUNTY.
A MESSAGE FROM THE SHELBY COUNTY MAYOR MARK H. LUTTRELL...THIS IS THE TIME TO GATHER ALL IMPORTANT ITEMS AND BE READY TO LEAVE YOUR PROPERTY. THERE IS A VERY REAL POSSIBILITY PORTIONS OF SHELBY COUNTY COULD BE AFFECTED BY THE RISING WATERS.
A C WHARTON...THE MAYOR OF MEMPHIS ADDED...WE WANT TO REASSURE OUR CITIZENS THAT DISASTER TEAMS ARE IN PLACE AND WILL BE DOING EVERYTHING POSSIBLE TO KEEP EVERYONE SAFE.
SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN ARE PREDICTED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. RIVERS AND CREEKS ARE QUICKLY RISING IN THE WESTERN AREA OF SHELBY COUNTY AND WILL LIKELY BACK UP INTO NEIGHBORHOODS NEAR CREEKS AND STREAMS. FLOOD WATERS MAY ALSO RISE INTO NEIGHBORHOODS THROUGH STORM DRAINS. CONDITIONS MAY WORSEN EACH DAY WITH THE CONTINUAL RISE OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
GO IMMEDIATELY TO HIGHER GROUND IF WATER STARTS TO RISE. AVOID FLOOD WATERS.
Saturday, April 30, 2011
Recap of April 27-28 tornado outbreak
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| AP Photo, Tuscaloosa, AL |
April 2011 tornado information
Updated, April 29, 2011, 4:50 p.m. EDT
April 27-28, 2011, tornado outbreak statistics
NOAA's preliminary estimate is that there were 211 tornadoes on April 27-28, 2011.
- During the multi-day period of April 26-28, The National Weather Service (NWS) estimates there were a total of 288 tornadoes.
- NWS issued outlooks five days in advance, watches hours in advance, and tornado warnings with an average lead time of 24 minutes. NWS issued warnings for more than 90 percent of these tornadoes.
- The largest previous number of tornadoes on record in one event occurred from April 3-4, 1974, with 148 tornadoes.
- The April 27-28, 2011, tornado outbreak is the deadliest since the
March 21, 1932March 18, 1925 tornado outbreak that had332747 fatalities [CNN]. - Based on combined NOAA, historical research records and current fatality estimates, the April 27-28, 2011, tornado outbreak ranks 6th in single day total fatalities in the United States history. The historic research records extend back to 1680.
- The deadliest single tornado on record was the Tri-State Tornado (Mo., Ill., Ind.) on March 18, 1925, when 695 died.
- Based on combined NOAA and historical research records, the deadliest single day for tornadoes was March 18, 1925, with 747 fatalities across 7 states (including the Tri-State Tornado).
NWS’s preliminary estimate is that there have been more than 600 tornadoes thus far during the month of April 2011.
- The previous record number of tornadoes during the month of April was 267 tornadoes set in April 1974.
- The previous record number of tornadoes during any month was 542 tornadoes set in May 2003.
- The average number of tornadoes for the month of April during the past decade is around 160.
NWS’s preliminary estimate is that there have been 835 tornadoes so far this year.
- The previous yearly record number of tornadoes was set in 2004 with 1,817.
- May is historically the most active month for tornadoes.
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| Tornado reports for April 2011 - more than 600 |
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| "Rotation tracks" for April 27, 2011 - tracks of storms that were rotating (not necessarily producing tornadoes). Click here for more information. |
Stay up to date on the latest weather conditions and forecast by checking out MemphisWeather.net on Facebook and Twitter and our new iPhone and Android apps!
Friday, April 29, 2011
Attention turns from severe weather to river flooding
Copious rainfall this month (11.76" at Memphis International Airport, 12.58" at the Agricenter in Cordova, 10.95" at Cirrus Weather in Bartlett), along with rising floodwaters on the Mississippi River, have contributed to flooding of local waterways, including the Wolf and Loosahatchie Rivers and Nonconnah Creek and their tributary creeks and streams (see map below, courtesy FEMA). While the Loosahatchie and Nonconnah waterways have crested and fallen rapidly in the past 24 hours, the Wolf River remains very high.
In addition, the Mississippi River is also steadily rising towards what will likely be at least the third highest reading in the past 84 years. The Mississippi River gauge at Memphis is determined less by the rainfall here in the Mid-South and more by heavy rain upstream (the Ohio and Missouri River Valleys, as well as the Upper and Mid-Mississippi River Valley), as well as runoff from snow melt over the Northern Plains. The map below shows the Mississippi River watershed, or the areas which drain into the Mississippi. Everything north of Memphis affects the river reading here. For more facts on the Mississippi River Basin, see this site from the USDA.
As of this writing (Friday evening), the Wolf River is at 25.8 feet on the Germantown gauge, or about 5.3 feet above flood stage. It crested at nearly 27 feet this morning and has now begun what should be a steady decline. It is forecast to fall below flood stage very early Monday morning and be back down to about 11 feet by Wednesday morning. Data from the Wolf River at Germantown gauge can be found on water.weather.gov (click here).
The Mississippi River at Memphis gauge is currently at 38.44 feet (Friday evening). Flood stage is 34.0 feet. It will continue to rise, reaching moderate flood stage of 40.0 feet Saturday evening and cresting at about 45 feet on May 10. Major flood stage at Memphis is 46 feet. The only recorded crests high than 45 feet at Memphis were 48.7 feet in February 1937 and 45.8 feet in April 1927. At 44 feet, the NWS indicates that there will be significant flooding occurring along both banks of the river in TN, AR, and MS. Riverside Drive and Tom Lee Park are flooded at 48 feet. For more details on the Memphis gauge and it's forecast, visit water.weather.gov (click here).
Many in Germantown, Collierville, and others have had to deal with flooding from the Wolf River and large areas of typically dry land are under water from the Mississippi River being so high. Recently, Shelby County officials outlined nearly 2,300 properties that could be affected by flood waters as early as Sunday when the river will reach 41'. Officials indicate that they are planning for a 48' crest and hoping the river does not get that high.
MemphisWeather.net will continue to keep you informed on rising waters. The forecast of additional heavy rain Sunday through Tuesday could exacerbate the issue, especially for local waterways like the Loosahatchie and Wolf Rivers. Flooding is the #1 cause of weather-related fatalities each year in the United States. It is not a hazard to be taken lightly.
Below is a Public Service Announcement from Mayor A.C. Wharton:
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Stay up to date on the latest weather conditions and forecast by checking out MemphisWeather.net on Facebook and Twitter and our new iPhone and Android apps!
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| Shelby County Waterways, courtesy FEMA (click for large image) |
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| Mississippi River Basin, courtesy U.S. Army Corps of Engineers |
The Mississippi River at Memphis gauge is currently at 38.44 feet (Friday evening). Flood stage is 34.0 feet. It will continue to rise, reaching moderate flood stage of 40.0 feet Saturday evening and cresting at about 45 feet on May 10. Major flood stage at Memphis is 46 feet. The only recorded crests high than 45 feet at Memphis were 48.7 feet in February 1937 and 45.8 feet in April 1927. At 44 feet, the NWS indicates that there will be significant flooding occurring along both banks of the river in TN, AR, and MS. Riverside Drive and Tom Lee Park are flooded at 48 feet. For more details on the Memphis gauge and it's forecast, visit water.weather.gov (click here).
Many in Germantown, Collierville, and others have had to deal with flooding from the Wolf River and large areas of typically dry land are under water from the Mississippi River being so high. Recently, Shelby County officials outlined nearly 2,300 properties that could be affected by flood waters as early as Sunday when the river will reach 41'. Officials indicate that they are planning for a 48' crest and hoping the river does not get that high.
MemphisWeather.net will continue to keep you informed on rising waters. The forecast of additional heavy rain Sunday through Tuesday could exacerbate the issue, especially for local waterways like the Loosahatchie and Wolf Rivers. Flooding is the #1 cause of weather-related fatalities each year in the United States. It is not a hazard to be taken lightly.
Below is a Public Service Announcement from Mayor A.C. Wharton:
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Stay up to date on the latest weather conditions and forecast by checking out MemphisWeather.net on Facebook and Twitter and our new iPhone and Android apps!
Wednesday, April 27, 2011
For the remainder of today... severe weather discussion
The satellite image above, from shortly after 9am this morning, shows the setup for the remainder of the day today as the Memphis metro area remains under a Slight Risk of severe weather (outlook map below). Low pressure over western AR will move northeast during the day. Behind storms over NE Mississippi, the atmosphere is re-priming over southern Arkansas and thunderstorms are developing and moving very rapidly northeast into the metro area (at 60-70 mph) thanks to a very wind aloft.
Storms will continue to develop ahead of (east of) the track of the low and move through the area through early afternoon before a cold front will finally move through mid to late afternoon, bringing an end to the seemingly-endless severe weather of the past couple of days. Though we have been downgraded to a Slight Risk of severe weather, there is still a good chance many areas will see very heavy rain, dangerous lightning, large hail, damaging thunderstorm wind up to 75 mph, and isolated tornadoes. Flooding continues to be a major threat.
We'll continue to update you on the risks today as they develop on Facebook and Twitter (links below). Tomorrow promises to be a much kinder day in the weather world!
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Stay up to date on the latest weather conditions and forecast by checking out MemphisWeather.net on Facebook and Twitter and our new iPhone and Android apps!
Tuesday, April 26, 2011
Another rough 24 hours, then a break from thunderstorms
What has seemed to be an unusually active spring severe weather season will produce one more episode of severe weather over the next 24 hours. We will once again see multiple rounds of severe storms (hopefully not continuously) beginning later this afternoon/evening into the overnight hours and through Wednesday morning. Unfortunately, this event could be one of the more significant of all of the storms the metro area has experienced in some time.
As of 11:30am, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has upgraded the Memphis metro area from a Moderate Risk to a rare High Risk. The High Risk extends from northeast of the metro area southwest across southern AR (see map below). A High Risk is generally only issued when there is a magnitude of certainty that strong, long-tracked tornadoes or very strong wind that will produce widespread damage will develop within the risk area. The threat levels for all severe weather parameters are shown at the end of this post.
As far as how we expect this event to play out, storms will begin to develop over southern AR by late afternoon and move/develop quickly east and northeast towards the metro area this evening. Supercell thunderstorms are possible in the area after 5pm with an enhanced threat during the late evening hours - say from 8pm to midnight. Any storms that form could produce damaging straight line wind, hail, and tornadoes. As SPC indicates, there is uncertainty with the downstream development of the storms in AR during the evening. They could remain supercellular, which would heighten the tornado threat, or they could coalesce into a squall line that would heighten the damaging wind threat.
During the overnight hours, thunderstorms will remain likely though at this time there is no "likely period" or "trigger" that we can hang our hat on as far as organization of the storms. All modes of severe weather will continue to be threats throughout the nighttime hours.
By morning, the developing low pressure responsible for all of this severe weather will be moving across northeast AR into the mid-Mississippi Valley and will probably bring one more round of severe storms during the post-dawn hours, or sometime between 7-11am. Another squall line is probably a good bet, though there will be enough wind shear to produce tornadoes as well. The back edge of the rain and storms should be moving out around the lunch hour on Wednesday with much more pleasant weather in store for Thursday and Friday!
The final threat to mention is not the least and cannot be overstated. The ground is already saturated. All of these storms will have very heavy rain, which could be prolonged. Flash flooding is a serious threat and is exacerbated at night when it is difficult to impossible to gauge the depth of moving water. Do NOT cross flooded areas by foot or in your vehicle. Twelve inches of moving water is enough to sweep a large vehicle off the road into a rushing culvert and you can't be sure the road you want to drive across has been washed out under the flowing water. "Turn Around, Don't Drown" is the message.
All Mid-Southerners should prepare for an extended period of severe weather and possible long-duration power outages. This storm system has the highest potential to produce severe storms that we have faced in some time. Please read over these safety tips published on the blog last evening, then visit the MWN Storm Center for additional safety information. Be prepared, not scared, and stay with MWN for the latest. Our website has all of the information you need to stay informed and remain safe.
FINAL NOTE: MWN is a small operation and we do our absolute best to keep you informed during severe weather events. Please review our severe weather coverage policy and understand that we cannot answer every question posed during ongoing severe weather and apologize for this in advance. We will do our best to cover the most intense weather via social media, but there is no "second shift" to call in. Some sleep is a necessity in order to think and function properly during severe weather. :-) Thanks for understanding.
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Stay up to date on the latest weather conditions and forecast by checking out MemphisWeather.net on Facebook and Twitter and our new iPhone and Android apps!
As of 11:30am, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has upgraded the Memphis metro area from a Moderate Risk to a rare High Risk. The High Risk extends from northeast of the metro area southwest across southern AR (see map below). A High Risk is generally only issued when there is a magnitude of certainty that strong, long-tracked tornadoes or very strong wind that will produce widespread damage will develop within the risk area. The threat levels for all severe weather parameters are shown at the end of this post.
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| Severe weather risk areas through Wednesday 7am. A High Risk is rare. |
During the overnight hours, thunderstorms will remain likely though at this time there is no "likely period" or "trigger" that we can hang our hat on as far as organization of the storms. All modes of severe weather will continue to be threats throughout the nighttime hours.
By morning, the developing low pressure responsible for all of this severe weather will be moving across northeast AR into the mid-Mississippi Valley and will probably bring one more round of severe storms during the post-dawn hours, or sometime between 7-11am. Another squall line is probably a good bet, though there will be enough wind shear to produce tornadoes as well. The back edge of the rain and storms should be moving out around the lunch hour on Wednesday with much more pleasant weather in store for Thursday and Friday!
The final threat to mention is not the least and cannot be overstated. The ground is already saturated. All of these storms will have very heavy rain, which could be prolonged. Flash flooding is a serious threat and is exacerbated at night when it is difficult to impossible to gauge the depth of moving water. Do NOT cross flooded areas by foot or in your vehicle. Twelve inches of moving water is enough to sweep a large vehicle off the road into a rushing culvert and you can't be sure the road you want to drive across has been washed out under the flowing water. "Turn Around, Don't Drown" is the message.
All Mid-Southerners should prepare for an extended period of severe weather and possible long-duration power outages. This storm system has the highest potential to produce severe storms that we have faced in some time. Please read over these safety tips published on the blog last evening, then visit the MWN Storm Center for additional safety information. Be prepared, not scared, and stay with MWN for the latest. Our website has all of the information you need to stay informed and remain safe.
Severe weather risk maps for each mode of severe weather
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| Hail risk - probability of 1" hail within 25 miles of a point |
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| Tornado risk - probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point |
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| Wind risk - probability of wind gusts exceeding 58 mph within 25 miles of a point |
FINAL NOTE: MWN is a small operation and we do our absolute best to keep you informed during severe weather events. Please review our severe weather coverage policy and understand that we cannot answer every question posed during ongoing severe weather and apologize for this in advance. We will do our best to cover the most intense weather via social media, but there is no "second shift" to call in. Some sleep is a necessity in order to think and function properly during severe weather. :-) Thanks for understanding.
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Stay up to date on the latest weather conditions and forecast by checking out MemphisWeather.net on Facebook and Twitter and our new iPhone and Android apps!
Monday, April 25, 2011
Preparing for severe weather
As you prepare for severe weather, here are some things to keep in mind:
* Check your NOAA Weather Radio, make sure it's batteries are fresh and it is programmed to alarm when a warning is issued.
* Charge your cell phones before the storm arrives, in case the power or TV go out during or after the storm.
* Make sure flashlights have good batteries.
* Know your family's safe place and be sure it is ready. If it's a closet, clean it out ahead of time.
* If you have to take shelter, have your shoes on, ID on your person, cell phone with you.
Check the MWN Storm Center for additional safety tips pertaining to different severe weather threats (link below).
If a Tornado Warning is issued, sirens should sound, but do not count on them, especially indoors. They are for warning those outdoors. Take cover as soon as possible. If necessary, determine if you are in the path of the storm after you take cover.
Severe Thunderstorms Warnings can and occasionally do produce tornadoes, especially if a Tornado Watch is in effect. During a Severe Thunderstorm Warning, pay careful attention to MemphisWeather.net or local media outlets for any additional information. Severe thunderstorms can also produce very high wind that can down trees and power lines. Be weather aware!
MemphisWeather.net provides many resources to keep you safe during storms. Download the MWN App for iPhone or Android (search "Memphis weather" in the App Store or Market), sign up to receive severe weather alerts via e-mail, and follow @shelbyalerts and @memphisweather1 on Twitter and MemphisWeather.net on Facebook. On MemphisWeather.net, the MWN Storm Center has the latest watches and warnings, as well as severe weather safety tips. Please read these BEFORE the storm strikes. StormView Radar is interactive and will show you warnings and hail and storm rotation signatures detected by the radar. Certainly the MWN Forecast will help you plan ahead for possible severe weather as well.
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Stay up to date on the latest weather conditions and forecast by checking out MemphisWeather.net on Facebook and Twitter and our new iPhone and Android apps!
* Check your NOAA Weather Radio, make sure it's batteries are fresh and it is programmed to alarm when a warning is issued.
* Charge your cell phones before the storm arrives, in case the power or TV go out during or after the storm.
* Make sure flashlights have good batteries.
* Know your family's safe place and be sure it is ready. If it's a closet, clean it out ahead of time.
* If you have to take shelter, have your shoes on, ID on your person, cell phone with you.
Check the MWN Storm Center for additional safety tips pertaining to different severe weather threats (link below).
If a Tornado Warning is issued, sirens should sound, but do not count on them, especially indoors. They are for warning those outdoors. Take cover as soon as possible. If necessary, determine if you are in the path of the storm after you take cover.
Severe Thunderstorms Warnings can and occasionally do produce tornadoes, especially if a Tornado Watch is in effect. During a Severe Thunderstorm Warning, pay careful attention to MemphisWeather.net or local media outlets for any additional information. Severe thunderstorms can also produce very high wind that can down trees and power lines. Be weather aware!
MemphisWeather.net provides many resources to keep you safe during storms. Download the MWN App for iPhone or Android (search "Memphis weather" in the App Store or Market), sign up to receive severe weather alerts via e-mail, and follow @shelbyalerts and @memphisweather1 on Twitter and MemphisWeather.net on Facebook. On MemphisWeather.net, the MWN Storm Center has the latest watches and warnings, as well as severe weather safety tips. Please read these BEFORE the storm strikes. StormView Radar is interactive and will show you warnings and hail and storm rotation signatures detected by the radar. Certainly the MWN Forecast will help you plan ahead for possible severe weather as well.
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Stay up to date on the latest weather conditions and forecast by checking out MemphisWeather.net on Facebook and Twitter and our new iPhone and Android apps!
Monday afternoon severe weather update - what's next?
An early morning line of storms swept through with little fanfare, at least regarding severity, though there was some pretty decent thunder with it. Around noon, another line of storms moved through the metro area, prompting Severe Thunderstorm and Tornado Warnings. There were a couple of "sighted" tornadoes and funnels, though no damage from tornadoes has been confirmed. In the wake of these storms, watches have been cancelled and the sun is beginning to come back out.
For the rest of the day and night, the metro counties remain under a MODERATE RISK of severe weather (see maps at bottom). Expect a few thunderstorms this evening once the atmosphere "re-energizes" following the mid-day storms. Some of these storms could be strong to severe. Then, the next major round of weather will likely be in the form of another squall line, though probably stronger and certainly cover a larger area than the mid-day storms. It too will be severe with the threat of large hail, damaging wind, and tornadoes. In addition, torrential rain will lead to some flash flooding. I expect a Tornado Watch to be issued by this evening, with the line moving through the metro area between 10pm and midnight (in fact, a Tornado Watch for central and northern AR is forthcoming as I type). Steady, perhaps heavy, rain will last for a few hours behind the line, or into the early morning hours. The timing of the line could be about the same time as the FedExForum will empty tonight, following a Grizzles victory over the Spurs.
Following tonight's line, it should be a little quieter through much of the morning and possibly early afternoon Tuesday before scattered supercell storms fire late Tuesday afternoon ahead of a developing surface low pressure system to our west. This low will have the greatest impact on our weather Tuesday night into early Wednesday, when the threat of severe storms will be maximized with the possibility of tornadoes, some of which could be long-lived and strong. This is still a developing situation and we'll have more on this threat during the day tomorrow.
The other threat that must be mentioned is that of flooding. The possibility of major flash flooding, urban flooding, and river flooding cannot be understated. By Wednesday afternoon, some places in the metro area may receive up to 8-12" of total rainfall. Creeks, streams, drainage ditches, low-lying areas, underpasses... all of these will become danger zones and could (hopefully not) take someone's life. Besides preparing for severe weather, also be prepared for the possibility of flooding. Some areas could see flooding that rivals May 1-2 last year! A complete set of safety tips for severe weather, tornadoes, and flooding, can be found at the bottom of the MWN Storm Center page and you can sign up to receive severe weather warnings by e-mail on our Severe Weather Notification page.
Below are the severe weather risk maps from the Storm Prediction Center:
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Stay up to date on the latest weather conditions and forecast by checking out MemphisWeather.net on Facebook and Twitter and our new iPhone and Android apps!
For the rest of the day and night, the metro counties remain under a MODERATE RISK of severe weather (see maps at bottom). Expect a few thunderstorms this evening once the atmosphere "re-energizes" following the mid-day storms. Some of these storms could be strong to severe. Then, the next major round of weather will likely be in the form of another squall line, though probably stronger and certainly cover a larger area than the mid-day storms. It too will be severe with the threat of large hail, damaging wind, and tornadoes. In addition, torrential rain will lead to some flash flooding. I expect a Tornado Watch to be issued by this evening, with the line moving through the metro area between 10pm and midnight (in fact, a Tornado Watch for central and northern AR is forthcoming as I type). Steady, perhaps heavy, rain will last for a few hours behind the line, or into the early morning hours. The timing of the line could be about the same time as the FedExForum will empty tonight, following a Grizzles victory over the Spurs.
Following tonight's line, it should be a little quieter through much of the morning and possibly early afternoon Tuesday before scattered supercell storms fire late Tuesday afternoon ahead of a developing surface low pressure system to our west. This low will have the greatest impact on our weather Tuesday night into early Wednesday, when the threat of severe storms will be maximized with the possibility of tornadoes, some of which could be long-lived and strong. This is still a developing situation and we'll have more on this threat during the day tomorrow.
The other threat that must be mentioned is that of flooding. The possibility of major flash flooding, urban flooding, and river flooding cannot be understated. By Wednesday afternoon, some places in the metro area may receive up to 8-12" of total rainfall. Creeks, streams, drainage ditches, low-lying areas, underpasses... all of these will become danger zones and could (hopefully not) take someone's life. Besides preparing for severe weather, also be prepared for the possibility of flooding. Some areas could see flooding that rivals May 1-2 last year! A complete set of safety tips for severe weather, tornadoes, and flooding, can be found at the bottom of the MWN Storm Center page and you can sign up to receive severe weather warnings by e-mail on our Severe Weather Notification page.
Below are the severe weather risk maps from the Storm Prediction Center:
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| Moderate Risk of severe storms over the metro area for tonight |
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| Hail threat for tonight, mainly southwest of the metro |
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| Tornado threat for tonight, indicating a risk of significant tornadoes (black hatched area) |
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| Damaging wind threat for tonight - nearly a 50/50% chance of severe wind |
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| Tuesday night convective outlook - significant severe weather is likely again overnight Tuesday |
Stay up to date on the latest weather conditions and forecast by checking out MemphisWeather.net on Facebook and Twitter and our new iPhone and Android apps!
Saturday, April 23, 2011
Dual severe weather threats early next week
Not to spoil what is turning about to be a fabulous Easter weekend... But as you might guess, the very warm temperatures, breezy south wind, increased humidity, and a peek at the radar to our northwest foreshadow things to come.
The graphics below show the areas that are under a severe weather risk on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday. Two systems will affect the region early next week. The first will arrive Monday night, bringing a round of thunderstorms and a Slight Risk of severe weather. Thunderstorms will be likely again Tuesday, though not as organized as the round Monday night.
Then, another organized round of storms will move in early Wednesday. The timing on this system is still a little uncertain, though it appears it will be during the morning hours. This second batch of storms looks like it could be more potent than Monday night's, especially if it gets delayed any and can capitalize on some daytime heat on Wednesday. Stay with MWN for the latest, particularly this blog and the MWN Storm Center, where the graphics below were taken from. In the meantime, enjoy your Easter Sunday!
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Stay up to date on the latest weather conditions and forecast by checking out MemphisWeather.net on Facebook and Twitter and our new iPhone and Android apps!
The graphics below show the areas that are under a severe weather risk on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday. Two systems will affect the region early next week. The first will arrive Monday night, bringing a round of thunderstorms and a Slight Risk of severe weather. Thunderstorms will be likely again Tuesday, though not as organized as the round Monday night.
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| Severe weather risk for Monday morning through Tuesday morning |
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| Area of potential severe weather from Tuesday morning through Wednesday morning |
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| Area of potential severe weather from Wednesday morning through Thursday morning |
Stay up to date on the latest weather conditions and forecast by checking out MemphisWeather.net on Facebook and Twitter and our new iPhone and Android apps!
Friday, April 22, 2011
MLGW crews, in the field and behind the desk, work tirelessly after recent storms
Weather is certainly one of the most disruptive, large-scale "regular" contributors to interruptions in the electrical grid and we've had our share the past 4-6 months, from severe storms to winter storms. And not only is weather a major cause of outages, but sometimes the weather during the restoration phase can hamper efforts, especially when there continues to be high wind, extreme cold, or brutal Mid-South heat and humidity. The linemen and tree trimmers in the field - in bucket trucks, on poles, or in trees - work tirelessly to get your power restored. Not only are they working in the elements, but during large-scale restorations, they are frequently working 16-hour shifts for several days, maybe while their families are at home in the dark as well. Please take this into consideration when you get the urge to snap at them, or Customer Care reps, for the amount of time your personal restoration is taking. They are doing everything they possibly can, against many odds, to bring back one of the most basic services most of us take for granted daily.
Speaking of customer service, we all mess this up sometimes, but MLGW has taken great efforts to improve your experience with them over the past few years. From a real-time web-based outage map, to detailed information via phone on your particular outage (not to mention the ability to report your outage by automated phone system), to social media most recently, Customer Care has improved substantially. In fact, you can now use Twitter (@mlgw) to find out specific info regarding your outage status and they have rolled out an iPhone app this week that allows you to check outage status among other features. (Android and Blackberry apps are forthcoming.)
MLGW has two people manning their Twitter and Facebook accounts to answer your questions, generally from 7am to 5:30pm , though they also will work 16-hour shifts when there are major outages ongoing. MLGW began using social media as a customer service and educational and awareness tool in 2008 and now uses a suite of social media tools, including Blogger, Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube. According to one team member, "we recognize that our customers use social media and we want to be where our customers are when they need us."
Bottom line: Recognize the efforts that go into restoring tens of thousands of customer's power and THANK the crews when your power is restored, rather than berating them for how long it took. They do a fantastic job!!
Did you lose power? How would you rate your service from MLGW? Did you make use of their social media tools during your outage?
For more information from MLGW on their restoration efforts, follow this link.
To view a story done by WREG on the challenges MLGW faces when restoring power, click here.
The extensive MLGW website can be found at www.mlgw.com.
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Stay up to date on the latest weather conditions and forecast by checking out MemphisWeather.net on Facebook and Twitter and our new iPhone and Android apps!
Wednesday, April 20, 2011
More borderline severe weather possible tonight, and results of a Shelby Co. damage survey from last night
More strong thunderstorms will likely affect portions of the Memphis metro area this evening as a disturbance moves east across AR along a stationary front to our south. The front is the remnants of the cold front that moved through overnight, bringing severe straight-line wind, some hail, and tornado warnings to the area. The primary threat with tonight's storms will be large (possibly very large) hail. A Slight Risk of severe weather is posted for north MS, where the majority of the storms are expected. However, storms could also move through the Bluff City this evening and into the early nighttime hours.
Below is a statement released by the NWS regarding damage and survey results from last night's storm that left over 50,000 customers without power in Shelby County alone.
...PRELIMINARY DAMAGE SURVEY OF SHELBY COUNTY TENNESSEE...
A NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SURVEY TEAM DETERMINED THAT VARIOUS AREAS OF SHELBY COUNTY TENNESSEE HAD STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED ACROSS THE COUNTY BETWEEN 1030 PM AND 1115 PM ON TUEDAY APRIL 19, 2011.
DAMAGE IN THE FRAYSER AND RALEIGH AREAS CONSISTED OF DAMAGE TO SHINGLES ON HOMES, FENCES AND DOWNED TREES. WIND ESTIMATES IN THAT AREA ARE FROM 60 TO 70 MILES AN HOUR.
DAMAGE IN THE BOLTON AREA, NEAR THE HIGH SCHOOL, CONSISTED OF DAMAGE TO ROOFS, BUILDINGS, AND DOWNED TREES. THE WIND WAS ESTIMATED AROUND 75 MILES AN HOUR.
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Below is a statement released by the NWS regarding damage and survey results from last night's storm that left over 50,000 customers without power in Shelby County alone.
...PRELIMINARY DAMAGE SURVEY OF SHELBY COUNTY TENNESSEE...
A NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SURVEY TEAM DETERMINED THAT VARIOUS AREAS OF SHELBY COUNTY TENNESSEE HAD STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED ACROSS THE COUNTY BETWEEN 1030 PM AND 1115 PM ON TUEDAY APRIL 19, 2011.
DAMAGE IN THE FRAYSER AND RALEIGH AREAS CONSISTED OF DAMAGE TO SHINGLES ON HOMES, FENCES AND DOWNED TREES. WIND ESTIMATES IN THAT AREA ARE FROM 60 TO 70 MILES AN HOUR.
DAMAGE IN THE BOLTON AREA, NEAR THE HIGH SCHOOL, CONSISTED OF DAMAGE TO ROOFS, BUILDINGS, AND DOWNED TREES. THE WIND WAS ESTIMATED AROUND 75 MILES AN HOUR.
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Tuesday, April 19, 2011
Tornado Watch issued - Tuesday evening severe weather update
A Tornado Watch has been issued for all of east Arkansas, extreme western TN, and extreme northwest MS until 2am Wednesday (see the map above, pink areas). Atmospheric parameters are coming together for a likely severe weather event during the overnight hours tonight. Severe storms require a few ingredients, including a source of lift (in this case a fairly strong cold front), instability (which is plentiful), available moisture (dewpoints are running in the mid 60s) and wind shear (which will be moderate during the event) among a few of them.
Storm threats this evening to our west and north include tornadoes, but as individual supercell and clusters of cells move east, they will evolve into a quasi-linear convective system, or squall line. The associated severe weather threats are expected to evolve as well - towards damaging straight-line wind and large hail. This squall line will be moving to the east at about 30 mph, while storms within the line will be moving very quickly to the NE at 50-60 mph. Given this motion, I expect to see the line move through the immediate metro area between 10pm-2am. Storms in the line will contain very heavy rain and dangerous lightning, and could also contain very large hail, high wind, or an isolated tornado.
MWN will nowcast this event until the line moves east of the metro area or is deemed to no longer be severe. Please review our severe weather coverage policy (PDF). The MWN Storm Center will have the latest severe weather information for the Mid-South. We'll also be signing folks up for our severe weather e-mail alerts this evening. You can sign up by clicking here. Regular updates will take place on our Facebook and Twitter feeds, which you can find links to below. Also, Twitter users can follow @shelbyalerts for automated severe weather watches and warnings for Shelby County, as they are issued by the NWS.
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Monday, April 18, 2011
Damage Survey Information for St. Francis and DeSoto Counties - April 15, 2011
...APRIL 15, 2011 DAMAGE SURVEY INFORMATION FOR ST. FRANCIS COUNTY, AR AND DESOTO COUNTY, MS...
...PRELIMINARY STORM DAMAGE REPORT FOR ST FRANCIS COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...
* COUNTY/COUNTIES: ST FRANCIS.
* LOCATION/TIME OF EVENT: 3 MILES WEST OF CALDWELL AT 345 AM APR 15 2011 ON COUNTY ROAD 267.
* FATALITIES: ONE.
* INJURIES: ONE.
* SUMMARY OF DAMAGES: A VIOLENT THUNDERSTORM WITH DOWNBURST WINDS ESTIMATED AT 70 TO 80 MILES PER HOUR LIFTED AND ROLLED A DOUBLE WIDE HOME. THE MOBILE HOME TRAVELED 70 FEET WHERE IT FINALLY LANDED ON ITS ROOF. THE MOBILE HOME WAS COMPLETELY DESTROYED.
5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE ABOVE DAMAGE AT THE I-40 AND HIGHWAY 1 INTERCHANGE AT FORREST CITY A LARGE PART OF THE ROOFING MATERIAL WAS TORN OFF THE COUNTRY HEARTH INN.
SPECIAL THANKS TO THE SHANE DALLAS AND WILLIAM SIMMERING OF THE ST. FRANCIS COUNTY OFFICE OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT FOR THEIR ASSISTANCE IN CONDUCTING THE DAMAGE SURVEY.
...PRELIMINARY STORM DAMAGE REPORT FOR DESOTO COUNTY IN NORTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI...
* COUNTY/COUNTIES: DESOTO
* LOCATION/TIME OF EVENT: APPROXIMATELY 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BYHALIA AT THE INTERSECTION OF WILLIAM AND FRENCH ROADS OR JUST SOUTH OF HOLLY SPRINGS ROAD AROUND 500 AM APRIL 15 2011.
* ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 60 TO 70 MILES PER HOUR.
* FATALITIES: NONE.
* INJURIES: NONE.
* SUMMARY OF DAMAGES: STRAIGHT LINE THUNDERSTORM WINDS UPROOTED NUMEROUS LARGE TREES AND TORE AWAY METAL ROOF PARTS FROM SEVERAL OUTBUILDINGS. A LARGE METAL CARPORT AWNING WAS PICKED UP AND CARRIED 25 TO 30 YARDS. DAMAGE WAS MOSTLY IN AN AREA ABOUT ONE HALF MILE LONG AND UP TO 100 YARDS WIDE. ISOLATED TREES WERE ALSO DOWNED TO THE EAST FOR ANOTHER ONE HALF MILE.
Information courtesy NWS-Memphis
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...PRELIMINARY STORM DAMAGE REPORT FOR ST FRANCIS COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...
* COUNTY/COUNTIES: ST FRANCIS.
* LOCATION/TIME OF EVENT: 3 MILES WEST OF CALDWELL AT 345 AM APR 15 2011 ON COUNTY ROAD 267.
* FATALITIES: ONE.
* INJURIES: ONE.
* SUMMARY OF DAMAGES: A VIOLENT THUNDERSTORM WITH DOWNBURST WINDS ESTIMATED AT 70 TO 80 MILES PER HOUR LIFTED AND ROLLED A DOUBLE WIDE HOME. THE MOBILE HOME TRAVELED 70 FEET WHERE IT FINALLY LANDED ON ITS ROOF. THE MOBILE HOME WAS COMPLETELY DESTROYED.
5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE ABOVE DAMAGE AT THE I-40 AND HIGHWAY 1 INTERCHANGE AT FORREST CITY A LARGE PART OF THE ROOFING MATERIAL WAS TORN OFF THE COUNTRY HEARTH INN.
SPECIAL THANKS TO THE SHANE DALLAS AND WILLIAM SIMMERING OF THE ST. FRANCIS COUNTY OFFICE OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT FOR THEIR ASSISTANCE IN CONDUCTING THE DAMAGE SURVEY.
...PRELIMINARY STORM DAMAGE REPORT FOR DESOTO COUNTY IN NORTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI...
* COUNTY/COUNTIES: DESOTO
* LOCATION/TIME OF EVENT: APPROXIMATELY 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BYHALIA AT THE INTERSECTION OF WILLIAM AND FRENCH ROADS OR JUST SOUTH OF HOLLY SPRINGS ROAD AROUND 500 AM APRIL 15 2011.
* ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 60 TO 70 MILES PER HOUR.
* FATALITIES: NONE.
* INJURIES: NONE.
* SUMMARY OF DAMAGES: STRAIGHT LINE THUNDERSTORM WINDS UPROOTED NUMEROUS LARGE TREES AND TORE AWAY METAL ROOF PARTS FROM SEVERAL OUTBUILDINGS. A LARGE METAL CARPORT AWNING WAS PICKED UP AND CARRIED 25 TO 30 YARDS. DAMAGE WAS MOSTLY IN AN AREA ABOUT ONE HALF MILE LONG AND UP TO 100 YARDS WIDE. ISOLATED TREES WERE ALSO DOWNED TO THE EAST FOR ANOTHER ONE HALF MILE.
Information courtesy NWS-Memphis
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Spring severe weather season well underway - another round on the way
April 14-16, 2011 will go down in the history books for the devastating tornado outbreaks that occurred over at least 17 states from Oklahoma and Kansas to Mississippi and Alabama to North Carolina. Fortunately, the worst of the weather missed the Mid-South, though severe storms affected portions of the area Friday. The map below, courtesy of The Weather Channel, shows the widespread nature of the tornado reports. An interactive version of the map can be found here.
According to TWC, there were (preliminarily) 29 tornado reports on the 14th, 73 on the 15th, and 51 on the 16th, for a total of 153. The average month of April has 163! Compared to previous "outbreaks," the Super Tuesday outbreak on Feb. 5, 2008 (when Hickory Hill and portions of northern Shelby County were struck) had 86 tornadoes and 57 deaths. May 29-31, 2004 had 170 tornadoes and 3 deaths, and the "Super Outbreak" (widely considered the worst tornado outbreak in U.S. history) had 147 tornadoes and 309 deaths. According to Storm Prediction Center statistics, the preliminary number of tornadoes for the month of April stands at 371. Our thoughts and condolences go out to all of those who were affected directly or indirectly by the past week's storms.
Unfortunately, there is no respite from the changing seasons, in which warm springtime airmasses collide with lingering winter airmasses, causing a battle that rages in the atmosphere above us. The upcoming week is forecast to be a stormy one with several chances of rain and thunderstorms for much of the eastern half of the nation. The map below shows the total precipitation forecast through Saturday morning from the NWS. 3-5" of rain is expected from the Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley, while the metro area is in an area forecast to see 2-3" of rain this week.
In the Mid-South, we'll see a small chance of thunderstorms late this afternoon through the night as a disturbance moves by to our north along a warm front that is moving north through the area today. The atmosphere will remain unstable Tuesday, but will be capped by warmer air aloft that should keep storms from forming most of the day. It will certainly be very warm (mid 80s), humid and windy (gusts to 30-40 mph) though as the next major storm system approaches.
Tuesday is when that storm system, which will be centered to our north, triggers the next potential severe weather outbreak, which will continue into the overnight hours Tuesday night. A Moderate Risk of severe weather is in place for the Mid-Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys (extending as far south as NE AR and NW TN), while a Slight Risk is in place for the Memphis metro area. See the risk area in the map below. I expect a line of strong to severe thunderstorms to move through the region on a cold front late Tuesday night, after midnight, through early Wednesday.
We'll have continuing chances of thunderstorms right through the extended period, focused on times when fronts are nearby. These times are still somewhat uncertain, though we will keep you updated with the latest information.
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| Plot of tornado reports on April 14-16, 2011, courtesy TWC |
Unfortunately, there is no respite from the changing seasons, in which warm springtime airmasses collide with lingering winter airmasses, causing a battle that rages in the atmosphere above us. The upcoming week is forecast to be a stormy one with several chances of rain and thunderstorms for much of the eastern half of the nation. The map below shows the total precipitation forecast through Saturday morning from the NWS. 3-5" of rain is expected from the Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley, while the metro area is in an area forecast to see 2-3" of rain this week.
Tuesday is when that storm system, which will be centered to our north, triggers the next potential severe weather outbreak, which will continue into the overnight hours Tuesday night. A Moderate Risk of severe weather is in place for the Mid-Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys (extending as far south as NE AR and NW TN), while a Slight Risk is in place for the Memphis metro area. See the risk area in the map below. I expect a line of strong to severe thunderstorms to move through the region on a cold front late Tuesday night, after midnight, through early Wednesday.
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| Tuesday-Tuesday night severe weather risk area |
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Friday, April 15, 2011
Another round of severe weather possible this afternoon
In a nutshell, new thunderstorms are expected to fire up roughly along and east of the Mississippi River as the cold front now over central AR approaches. These storms will get going around or after noontime. Unlike this morning's squall line, this round of severe weather is expected to be individual storms, some of which could become supercells and go severe fairly quickly, especially if we can get some sunshine and heating ahead of their formation.
I do NOT expect everyone in the area to see storms this afternoon, as they will be scattered. However, any storms that form will bring the potential of large hail (perhaps larger than golfball-sized in mature storms) and isolated tornadoes. The better chances of storms will be east of the city as they should get a little more organized as they move east. The cold front should move through the metro between 3-5pm, ending the threat of severe weather.
Like this morning, MWN will have complete coverage, posting to Twitter and Facebook during the period of potential severe weather (links below). Also be sure to download our Apps for iPhone and Android, use our mobile site (pda.memphisweather.net), or just hit MemphisWeather.net if you're at work.
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Thursday, April 14, 2011
UPDATED: Thursday update on severe weather chances for tonight and tomorrow
8:45pm UPDATE:
I've been checking out the high-res computer models that now have the morning round of severe weather in their sights. Ongoing supercell storms over eastern OK will be moving into western AR in the next couple of hours and are handled well by the high-res models, particularly the HRRR. I expect a Tornado Watch to be issued for much of western and central AR shortly. The models are showing a new area of showers and thunderstorms to develop along the warm front (which I mentioned in my original afternoon post below) and move rapidly into the Memphis area after midnight - likely in the 2-3am time frame (image to the left is forecast radar valid at 3am - click here for the entire overnight loop). While a few of these cells could contain some hail or a brief wind gust, I don't expect widespread severe weather with them.
As the precip associated with the warm front continues lifting northeast, the storms moving across AR will likely make it into the area just before sunrise, or between 5-7am, lasting a few hours (image to the left is HRRR forecast radar at 6am). These storms will have a higher risk of being severe as they will be moving through the warm sector behind the warm front and could come in the form of a squall line. Look for the possibility of large hail, high wind, and maybe an isolated tornado which will impact the morning rush hour. In addition, very heavy rain will be likely.
I then expect somewhat of a break (scattered thunderstorms still possible) before another line moves through in the afternoon hours along the cold front. My thoughts on that have not changed from what I indicated below.
Please see the end of the post below for information on our coverage of these storms and how you can stay "weather aware." Live coverage from MWN is expected to begin ahead of the line of storms coming across AR due to arrive around sunrise.
"MWN - Straight-talk weather, without the fluff!"
Original post from 3:00pm:
Yesterday, I posted about the chances of severe weather for late tonight and again during the day Friday. My thinking has changed little with regards to the timing of the storms. In that post, I showed a couple of graphics indicating that the GFS computer model was running several hours faster than the NAM model, bringing the cold front through during the afternoon while the NAM was showing an evening passage. They have converged a little closer on a solution, but the preferred GFS (in this case) still maintains frontal passage about 3-4pm.
Also, as correctly predicted in yesterday's post, the Storm Prediction Center has upgraded areas just east of Memphis to a Moderate Risk of severe storms. Right now, the metro area is under a Slight Risk for late tonight through the day Friday.
Here's how I expect things to unfold tomorrow: A warm front will surge north overnight and reach the Memphis area in the early morning hours Friday, or around sunrise. Showers and a few storms will be possible ahead of and along the front. Behind the front, the first wave of strong storms will arrive. I'm thinking that they will be in the area between 5-10am and could cause problems for the morning commute. These storms will bring heavy rain and lightning, and could contain hail and damaging wind and the threat of a tornado.
From late morning through early afternoon, scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible, but I'm guessing they won't be very organized or widespread. Some areas could even see some sunshine, which could aid in the destabilization for the afternoon round of storms (that's not a good thing). Then, probably between 1-5pm, I expect another pretty good chance of severe thunderstorms. The biggest threat with these storms, which will likely be supercellular, will be large hail. In fact, as freezing levels lower and wind shear is sufficient, some hail could be very large (golf ball or larger). Some storms could also produce damaging wind and an isolated tornado. All severe activity should move east of the metro area by around the evening rush hour, though areas near the TN River into northeast MS could deal with severe weather, including tornados, through the evening hours.
MWN will have complete coverage of the storms tomorrow (as long as the power stays on!) through our various channels. MemphisWeather.net on the web will have all of the radar, satellite, watches, and warnings information you need. Facebook and Twitter will be used to update the situation as it unfolds. Sign up to receive severe weather alerts via e-mail or on Twitter (@shelbyalerts) and have your NOAA Weather Radio ready when severe weather watches and warnings are issued.
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| HRRR forecast radar - 3am CDT |
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| HRRR forecast radar - 6am CDT |
I then expect somewhat of a break (scattered thunderstorms still possible) before another line moves through in the afternoon hours along the cold front. My thoughts on that have not changed from what I indicated below.
Please see the end of the post below for information on our coverage of these storms and how you can stay "weather aware." Live coverage from MWN is expected to begin ahead of the line of storms coming across AR due to arrive around sunrise.
"MWN - Straight-talk weather, without the fluff!"
Original post from 3:00pm:
Yesterday, I posted about the chances of severe weather for late tonight and again during the day Friday. My thinking has changed little with regards to the timing of the storms. In that post, I showed a couple of graphics indicating that the GFS computer model was running several hours faster than the NAM model, bringing the cold front through during the afternoon while the NAM was showing an evening passage. They have converged a little closer on a solution, but the preferred GFS (in this case) still maintains frontal passage about 3-4pm.
Also, as correctly predicted in yesterday's post, the Storm Prediction Center has upgraded areas just east of Memphis to a Moderate Risk of severe storms. Right now, the metro area is under a Slight Risk for late tonight through the day Friday.
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| SPC severe weather risk for Friday |
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| Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. Hatched area has the greatest risk of significant severe weather. |
From late morning through early afternoon, scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible, but I'm guessing they won't be very organized or widespread. Some areas could even see some sunshine, which could aid in the destabilization for the afternoon round of storms (that's not a good thing). Then, probably between 1-5pm, I expect another pretty good chance of severe thunderstorms. The biggest threat with these storms, which will likely be supercellular, will be large hail. In fact, as freezing levels lower and wind shear is sufficient, some hail could be very large (golf ball or larger). Some storms could also produce damaging wind and an isolated tornado. All severe activity should move east of the metro area by around the evening rush hour, though areas near the TN River into northeast MS could deal with severe weather, including tornados, through the evening hours.
MWN will have complete coverage of the storms tomorrow (as long as the power stays on!) through our various channels. MemphisWeather.net on the web will have all of the radar, satellite, watches, and warnings information you need. Facebook and Twitter will be used to update the situation as it unfolds. Sign up to receive severe weather alerts via e-mail or on Twitter (@shelbyalerts) and have your NOAA Weather Radio ready when severe weather watches and warnings are issued.
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NWS predicting a possible "significant severe weather outbreak" on Friday
...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...
A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL SURGE NORTH ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. AS THIS WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE MID SOUTH... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME SEVERE. THE MAIN THREATS LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
THIS WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MID-SOUTH FRIDAY MORNING AS THE POTENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EJECTS OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MOVES INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR WILL PRODUCE CONDITIONS VERY FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE. LARGE HAIL... DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES ARE ALL POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT TORNADO THREAT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
NOW IS THE TIME TO PREPARE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. KNOW WHAT TO DO AND WHERE TO GO IF SEVERE WEATHER THREATENS. MAKE SURE YOUR NOAA WEATHER RADIO IS IN WORKING CONDITION... AND REMEMBER MOBILE HOMES ARE ESPECIALLY NOT A SAFE PLACE TO BE WHEN THERE IS THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES.
STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO... COMMERCIAL RADIO... OR TELEVISION FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION ON THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION. THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION ON THE WEB MAY BE OBTAINED AT WEATHER.GOV/MEMPHIS.
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A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL SURGE NORTH ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. AS THIS WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE MID SOUTH... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME SEVERE. THE MAIN THREATS LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
THIS WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MID-SOUTH FRIDAY MORNING AS THE POTENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EJECTS OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MOVES INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR WILL PRODUCE CONDITIONS VERY FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE. LARGE HAIL... DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES ARE ALL POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT TORNADO THREAT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
NOW IS THE TIME TO PREPARE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. KNOW WHAT TO DO AND WHERE TO GO IF SEVERE WEATHER THREATENS. MAKE SURE YOUR NOAA WEATHER RADIO IS IN WORKING CONDITION... AND REMEMBER MOBILE HOMES ARE ESPECIALLY NOT A SAFE PLACE TO BE WHEN THERE IS THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES.
STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO... COMMERCIAL RADIO... OR TELEVISION FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION ON THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION. THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION ON THE WEB MAY BE OBTAINED AT WEATHER.GOV/MEMPHIS.
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| Friday's convective outlook from the Storm Prediction Center |
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Wednesday, April 13, 2011
Spring weather pattern means more severe weather possible
April showers may bring May flowers, but April severe thunderstorms could bring May insurance claims!
Yet another potent weather system will move through the Mid-South Thursday night and Friday, following previous systems the past two Mondays, particularly on April 4 when 70,000+ MLGW customers lost power due to damaging straight line wind. While we enjoy fantastic springtime weather during the middle of the week, the atmosphere is commencing a recharge phase with wind shifting back to the south today and humidity beginning to rise over the next 24 hours. On Thursday, the change will be a little more palpable as highs climb back to 80 and south wind increases.
A strong low pressure system will be the root cause of possible severe weather on Friday as it moves slowly across the Plains into the middle Mississippi Valley during the day. I expect we cold see at least a couple of good chances at thunderstorms before Friday evening, the first associated with a warm frontal passage late Thursday night or early Friday morning and another later in the day with a cold front. The timing of these systems (the cold front in particular) is still debatable as the model comparison graphics from this morning shown below demonstrate (click each for larger image).
The first, valid at 7am Friday, shows the NAM and GFS models in decent agreement with low pressure over eastern KS and widespread rain and thunderstorms (greens/blues) to the southeast of the low (triggered by the warm front and an upper-level disturbance). The GFS is a little faster, showing the bulk of the precipitation centered on the MS River, while the NAM indicates it is mostly west of the river.
In the second set of images, shown below and valid at 7pm Friday, the disagreement is more pronounced. The GFS continues to be the faster model with the front having crossed the river and the heaviest precipitation moving over the TN Valley, east of Memphis. The NAM on the other hand, indicates that the Memphis area cold still be seeing strong thunderstorms at that time.
Both models (there are others, but these two are primary and shown for example purposes), indicate two widespread areas of thunderstorms on Friday, so I believe I'm safe with a high likelihood of thunderstorms. The details could greatly affect the severity of the episode(s) though (especially the latter event). The later in the day the storms arrive, the more likely they are to be able to tap into very warm air due to heating after the morning round of storms. This could increase the risk of the storms being severe.
Other environmental parameters (from both models) are indicative of a severe weather outbreak that could include the threat of tornadoes, large hail, damaging thunderstorm wind, and flash flooding. The Storm Prediction Center's risk area for Friday is shown below, along with the probabilities of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. The probabilities map indicates to me that SPC is leaning towards the GFS model solution at this time, and also that when the risk area is updated tomorrow, it could be upgraded to a Moderate Risk, especially for locations east of the Mississippi River and especially east of the Memphis metro.
I'll update the situation tomorrow here on the MWN Blog, then stay with us Friday on Facebook and Twitter as we nowcast the situation as it unfolds. Now would be a good time to download the MWN App for iPhone or Android, as well as sign up for severe weather alerts for your county by clicking here: Severe Weather Notification
We'll chat again tomorrow afternoon.
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Yet another potent weather system will move through the Mid-South Thursday night and Friday, following previous systems the past two Mondays, particularly on April 4 when 70,000+ MLGW customers lost power due to damaging straight line wind. While we enjoy fantastic springtime weather during the middle of the week, the atmosphere is commencing a recharge phase with wind shifting back to the south today and humidity beginning to rise over the next 24 hours. On Thursday, the change will be a little more palpable as highs climb back to 80 and south wind increases.
A strong low pressure system will be the root cause of possible severe weather on Friday as it moves slowly across the Plains into the middle Mississippi Valley during the day. I expect we cold see at least a couple of good chances at thunderstorms before Friday evening, the first associated with a warm frontal passage late Thursday night or early Friday morning and another later in the day with a cold front. The timing of these systems (the cold front in particular) is still debatable as the model comparison graphics from this morning shown below demonstrate (click each for larger image).
The first, valid at 7am Friday, shows the NAM and GFS models in decent agreement with low pressure over eastern KS and widespread rain and thunderstorms (greens/blues) to the southeast of the low (triggered by the warm front and an upper-level disturbance). The GFS is a little faster, showing the bulk of the precipitation centered on the MS River, while the NAM indicates it is mostly west of the river.
In the second set of images, shown below and valid at 7pm Friday, the disagreement is more pronounced. The GFS continues to be the faster model with the front having crossed the river and the heaviest precipitation moving over the TN Valley, east of Memphis. The NAM on the other hand, indicates that the Memphis area cold still be seeing strong thunderstorms at that time.
Both models (there are others, but these two are primary and shown for example purposes), indicate two widespread areas of thunderstorms on Friday, so I believe I'm safe with a high likelihood of thunderstorms. The details could greatly affect the severity of the episode(s) though (especially the latter event). The later in the day the storms arrive, the more likely they are to be able to tap into very warm air due to heating after the morning round of storms. This could increase the risk of the storms being severe.
Other environmental parameters (from both models) are indicative of a severe weather outbreak that could include the threat of tornadoes, large hail, damaging thunderstorm wind, and flash flooding. The Storm Prediction Center's risk area for Friday is shown below, along with the probabilities of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. The probabilities map indicates to me that SPC is leaning towards the GFS model solution at this time, and also that when the risk area is updated tomorrow, it could be upgraded to a Moderate Risk, especially for locations east of the Mississippi River and especially east of the Memphis metro.
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| Day 3 outlook area from SPC - Slight Risk of severe weather |
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| Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point |
We'll chat again tomorrow afternoon.
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Sunday, April 10, 2011
Is severe weather in store for the Mid-South again?
As I type, another spring cold front is moving slowly across the Plains in the general direction of the Mid-South, while ahead of it, we are basking in near record-breaking temperatures in the 80s, a fair amount of humidity, and a gusty south wind. Sounds like a recipe for severe weather huh? Well, it could be.
One week ago tomorrow, a nasty line of storms ravaged portions of the city with straight-line wind in excess of 80 mph through downed trees and power lines, broke windows in high rises, and resulted in one death. It took 5 days for MLGW to restore power to 71,000 customers that all went out in a matter of an hour or so.
One week later, we're watching another front that could bring damaging wind to the region, though I believe we have a couple of things going for us on this one. The main one is timing. Storms are expected to fire up late this evening across eastern OK and western AR and move very slowly east. They won't arrive at the Mississippi River until around 7-9am Monday. Though the storms will have the ingredients necessary to keep them going overnight, they will arrive in the Memphis area during the "coolest" part of the day, relatively-speaking (what is referred to as the diurnal minima). In addition, the strongest dynamics with this system will be to our north as the associated low pressure moves into the Great Lakes, even though there will be strong wind at all levels of the atmosphere and plenty of moisture ahead of the front to work with. Following the line of storms, I am anticipating a steady, occasionally heavy, rain that will last a few hours, or into the early afternoon. Below is a forecast model's rendition of what the radar will look like just after the lunch hour (remember this is a computer model, not an actual forecast).
In sum, I don't believe these storms will be nearly as strong as last week's, however, don't let your guard down! A SLIGHT RISK of severe weather still exists, as shown in the image from NWS-Memphis below. In addition, more than an inch of rain is expected tomorrow morning, so be prepared for the possibility of heavy rains and minor street flooding.
Stay with MWN for the latest on this developing scenario. We'll be now-casting on Facebook and Twitter once the storms gets closer in the morning.
Links you want during the next 24 hours:
MWN Forecast - The most accurate in the Mid-South
MWN Storm Center - watches/warnings, radar, safety tips, and more!
StormView Radar - the where and when as thunderstorms strike
MWN iPhone app - for iPhone users - radar, currents, forecast, etc.
MWN Android app - for Android users - same as iPhone, plus additional severe weather features!
MWN on Twitter - now-casting at @memphisweather1 and @shelbyalerts weather alerts for Shelby Co.
MWN on Facebook - now-casting during the storm
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Stay up to date on the latest weather conditions and forecast by checking out MemphisWeather.net on Facebook and Twitter and our new iPhone and Android apps!
One week ago tomorrow, a nasty line of storms ravaged portions of the city with straight-line wind in excess of 80 mph through downed trees and power lines, broke windows in high rises, and resulted in one death. It took 5 days for MLGW to restore power to 71,000 customers that all went out in a matter of an hour or so.
One week later, we're watching another front that could bring damaging wind to the region, though I believe we have a couple of things going for us on this one. The main one is timing. Storms are expected to fire up late this evening across eastern OK and western AR and move very slowly east. They won't arrive at the Mississippi River until around 7-9am Monday. Though the storms will have the ingredients necessary to keep them going overnight, they will arrive in the Memphis area during the "coolest" part of the day, relatively-speaking (what is referred to as the diurnal minima). In addition, the strongest dynamics with this system will be to our north as the associated low pressure moves into the Great Lakes, even though there will be strong wind at all levels of the atmosphere and plenty of moisture ahead of the front to work with. Following the line of storms, I am anticipating a steady, occasionally heavy, rain that will last a few hours, or into the early afternoon. Below is a forecast model's rendition of what the radar will look like just after the lunch hour (remember this is a computer model, not an actual forecast).
In sum, I don't believe these storms will be nearly as strong as last week's, however, don't let your guard down! A SLIGHT RISK of severe weather still exists, as shown in the image from NWS-Memphis below. In addition, more than an inch of rain is expected tomorrow morning, so be prepared for the possibility of heavy rains and minor street flooding.
Stay with MWN for the latest on this developing scenario. We'll be now-casting on Facebook and Twitter once the storms gets closer in the morning.
Links you want during the next 24 hours:
MWN Forecast - The most accurate in the Mid-South
MWN Storm Center - watches/warnings, radar, safety tips, and more!
StormView Radar - the where and when as thunderstorms strike
MWN iPhone app - for iPhone users - radar, currents, forecast, etc.
MWN Android app - for Android users - same as iPhone, plus additional severe weather features!
MWN on Twitter - now-casting at @memphisweather1 and @shelbyalerts weather alerts for Shelby Co.
MWN on Facebook - now-casting during the storm
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Stay up to date on the latest weather conditions and forecast by checking out MemphisWeather.net on Facebook and Twitter and our new iPhone and Android apps!
Friday, April 8, 2011
A note on National Weather Service operations under a government shutdown scenario
The mission of the NWS (quoted from their website - www.weather.gov) is this:
The National Weather Service (NWS) provides weather, hydrologic, and climate forecasts and warnings for the United States, its territories, adjacent waters and ocean areas, for the protection of life and property and the enhancement of the national economy. NWS data and products form a national information database and infrastructure which can be used by other governmental agencies, the private sector, the public, and the global community. (emphasis added by the author)
Due to the "protection of life and property" clause in that mission statement, there is no reason to wonder whether a government shutdown will affect the ability of your local NWS office to issue timely forecasts, watches, warnings, or other hazardous weather products. All mission-critical activities at the NWS will continue to operate during a government shutdown, should one occur. The NWS falls into the same category as the military, FBI, air traffic controllers, prison guard, etc. Their work is required to maintain the safety and well-being of the general public. In fact, in the document referenced below (second link, page 8), the first item stated that shall be maintained during a lapse in FY11 appropriations is "weather forecasting and alerts."
So, IF Congress cannot reach a budget settlement to get them through the remainder of the fiscal year prior to midnight tonight, don't worry about whether Severe Thunderstorm Warnings will be issued or whether radars and radios will continue to operate or the computer models will continue to churn out impressive amounts of data hourly. They will, and the public will continue to receive the same exceptional levels of service they have become accustomed to from the foremost authorities on weather and climate in the world.
For more information:
Agencies scramble to define critical functions as shutdown looms - NextGov.gov
Plan for Orderly Shutdown Due to Lapse of Congressional Appropriations - Dept. of Commerce (very detailed)
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Stay up to date on the latest weather conditions and forecast by checking out MemphisWeather.net on Facebook and Twitter and our new iPhone and Android apps!
Wednesday, April 6, 2011
Another springtime warm-up is followed by a chance of severe weather
As high pressure builds to our east over the southeastern U.S. the next few days, warm air from the Gulf of Mexico will be drawn up into the region on gusty south wind. This will lead to much more cloud cover beginning late tonight and lasting through the weekend, but also a nice warm-up. In fact, it will actually get quite warm and muggy this weekend, feeling more like early summer than spring! We'll be watching highs climb into the mid 80s Friday through Sunday with almost no chance of rain, outside of a few sprinkles here and there. Breezy south wind will continue as well. With the cloud cover and wind, also watch for overnight lows to be very mild to downright warm - in the mid 60s to near 70 Friday through Sunday mornings.
By late Sunday, the next major weather system will be moving into the region from the west, bringing a good shot at rain and thunderstorms. For a few reasons, I do not believe we'll be seeing anything as severe as we experienced on Monday, however the chance of strong to severe storms, particularly wind and hail, will be possible. Long-range computer models are still several hours apart of when an expected line of storms will pass through, but the window of opportunity right now appears to be from Sunday evening through early Monday morning. We'll continue to monitor and bring you the latest on the blog, Facebook, and Twitter, as well as the MWN Forecast.
For now, enjoy spring! Put on some shorts, open doors and windows before air conditioner days return, and be grateful for some time to let MLGW and their mutual response crews restore power to all of those still affected from Monday's storms (which as of this writing at 3:45pm Wednesday still number more than 11,000).
Recap of Monday's severe weather event
For a brief overview of Monday's "derecho" that affected the Mid-South, visit this NWS page. Here are some interesting stats on the severe weather outbreak that affected the southeast U.S. on Monday and Monday night (see plot below):
* 1377 total storm reports - highest number of single day reports since at least the year 2000
* 1245 high/damaging wind reports - more than the average MONTH of April
* 43 tornado reports (unusually low for this widespread of an event)
* reports from at least 19 states
* 85 reports in the Memphis NWS warning area (north MS, east AR, west TN, MO Bootheel)
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Stay up to date on the latest weather conditions and forecast by checking out MemphisWeather.net on Facebook and Twitter and our new iPhone and Android apps!
By late Sunday, the next major weather system will be moving into the region from the west, bringing a good shot at rain and thunderstorms. For a few reasons, I do not believe we'll be seeing anything as severe as we experienced on Monday, however the chance of strong to severe storms, particularly wind and hail, will be possible. Long-range computer models are still several hours apart of when an expected line of storms will pass through, but the window of opportunity right now appears to be from Sunday evening through early Monday morning. We'll continue to monitor and bring you the latest on the blog, Facebook, and Twitter, as well as the MWN Forecast.
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| GFS model solution indicating a line of storms in the Memphis area around midnight Sunday night |
Recap of Monday's severe weather event
For a brief overview of Monday's "derecho" that affected the Mid-South, visit this NWS page. Here are some interesting stats on the severe weather outbreak that affected the southeast U.S. on Monday and Monday night (see plot below):
* 1377 total storm reports - highest number of single day reports since at least the year 2000
* 1245 high/damaging wind reports - more than the average MONTH of April
* 43 tornado reports (unusually low for this widespread of an event)
* reports from at least 19 states
* 85 reports in the Memphis NWS warning area (north MS, east AR, west TN, MO Bootheel)
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| Map plotting all severe weather reports from Monday 6am to Tuesday 6am |
Stay up to date on the latest weather conditions and forecast by checking out MemphisWeather.net on Facebook and Twitter and our new iPhone and Android apps!
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