June 2011 Climate Data and MWN Forecast Accuracy

With spring marked by several bouts of severe weather, heavy rain, and high wind, the meteorological start of June brought unrelenting heat and a couple more thunderstorm complexes with high wind, hail, and lightning.  The heat would be the story of the month though as 26 of 30 days in June reached highs of 90 degrees plus, nearly double the long-term average of 14.  Even the 4 "cooler" days reached at least 84.  In fact, the average high and low temperatures for the entire month (93/74, respectively) were exactly what we typically expect during the hottest days in July.

Several record temperatures were set or tied during the month, including record highs of 99 degrees on the 3rd, 4th, and 5th and 98 degrees on the 7th.  An 80 degree low temperature on the 19th tied the previous high minimum for the date, set just last year (2010).

Memphis International Airport, Memphis, TN

The average June temperature was 83.7 degrees, which was 5.0 degrees above normal. The average high temperature was 93.3 degrees (14 degrees above May's average high) and the average low was 74.1. The coolest temperature of the month was 67 degrees on the 14th and the highest temperature was 99 degrees on the 3rd, 4th, and 5th.  The average related humidity was 63%.

Precipitation for the month of June totaled 3.55", which was 0.75" below average and half of what was received in May. There were only 6 days with measurable rainfall, though 3 of those measured more than one-half inch.  The greatest 24-hour total was 1.20" on the 11th. The peak wind gust was 72 mph in a severe thunderstorm on the 16th with an average wind speed for the month of 7.8 mph. Click here for a daily statistical recap for Memphis International Airport.

Cirrus Weather Solutions, Bartlett, TN

The average temperature for June at Cirrus Weather Solutions in north Bartlett was 82.0 degrees with a maximum of 98.7 degrees on the 4th and a minimum of 64.5 degrees on the 16th.  June precipitation ended below normal with a total of 3.59". A co-located manual gauge used for the CoCoRaHS program measured 3.75". The peak wind gust was 39 mph on the 11th. Average relative humidity was a high 68%. Click here for a daily recap on MemphisWeather.net.

MWN Forecast Accuracy

For the month of June, the average temperature error in all MWN temperature forecasts was 1.78 degrees, lower than all compared computer models, including the National Weather Service, by almost 10%. Nearly 78% of the MWN temperature forecasts for the month were within 2 degrees of the actual temperature. MWN's forecasts extend out five periods (or 2.5 days). For dewpoint accuracy, the MWN forecast beat all data sources, averaging 2.03 degrees error and falling within 2 degrees of the actual dewpoint nearly three-fourths of the time. Historical accuracy statistics can be found here.

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