If there’s one word to describe this weekend’s weather, it’s
undoubtedly windy! Just days after experiencing our first widespread freeze of
the fall, southerly winds have made their return to the Mid-South and in a very
strong fashion. Winds have frequently been sustained between 20 and 30 mph,
with gusts near 40 mph, and a few gusts even over 40 mph on Sunday. The weekend
has also brought back the mild temperatures, with readings reaching the 70s,
along with a high overcast as moisture levels begin increasing ahead of our
next system. This system will be moving
into the region late Monday into Tuesday, bringing more rain and possibly a few
thunderstorms.
The high overcast, windy conditions and mild temperatures
will continue through Monday before the arrival of rain, with highs approaching
the upper 70s, and wind gusts to near 30 mph possible. Meanwhile, showers and a
few thunderstorms will begin developing to our northwest by Monday afternoon,
slowly pushing southeast along a cold front.
This rain will move through the Memphis metro area Monday night, but as
it pushes through, the cold front will stall near or just north of the region.
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| National Weather Service surface weather map forecast for Monday evening, showing the cold front to our northwest that will eventually stall in the area by Tuesday morning. |
With the front’s stall, widespread rain and isolated thunderstorms will
continue developing in the front’s vicinity Tuesday. After a brief break in
rainfall is possible early in the day, rain will be moving back in by the evening,
and may continue into much of Tuesday night, making for a wet 18 to 24 hour
period. Between Monday and Tuesday night, total rainfall amounts of 1 to 2
inches will be possible. Severe thunderstorms are not expected at this time as
instability levels, like in previous systems, will be limited.
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| NAM model forecast for Midnight Tuesday night showing widespread rainfall over the region occurring along the stalled cold front. |
The front will finally be able to push through and out of
the region by Wednesday morning, leading to drying conditions along with a cooler
airmass dominated by high pressure. High temperatures will return back to the
50s to near 60 to close out the workweek, with lows in the 30s and 40s. Southerly
flow looks to be back in the picture for next weekend, along with the milder
temperatures and increasing clouds, with our next system and associated rain
chances likely to start off the following workweek.
--Kevin Terry, MemphisWeather.Net
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