The Top 11 of '11: Mid-South weather stories from MWN (part 5)

Here we go!  The top 2 Mid-South weather stories of 2011 are revealed below.  To read about the other 9, follow the links below:

• Part 1 (#11 Aurora Borealis appears in Mid-South skies, #10 MWN at the forefront of social media nowcasting, #9 Addition of key team members helps MWN expand it's presence)
• Part 2 (#8 Dual early-season accumulating snow events, #7 MemphisWeather.net debuts mobile apps, then raises the bar with StormWatch+)
• Part 3 (#6 Early April severe weather events foreshadow a busy season, #5 Severe weather season ends with one last round of storms in late May)
• Part 4 (#4 January-February snowstorms contribute to the snowiest winter in 25 years, #3 "The Summer of '11" - third hottest Memphis summer in recorded history)

#2. Effects of the April 25-28 Super Outbreak on the Mid-South
It has gone down in the history books as the super outbreak to rival the original of 1974.  In fact, many of the stats indicate that it has surpassed the Super Outbreak of 1974 in many respects. The month of April was the most active tornado month in U.S. history and the 4-day period from April 25-28 saw over 200 tornadoes produced in 5 southeastern U.S. states, killing 316 and injuring more than 2,400.  15 of the tornadoes were rated violent (EF-4 or 5).  Total damage is estimated at $4.2 billion from storms on this day alone (all statistics from "The Historic Tornadoes of 2011," a NOAA Service Assessment).

Memphis area severe weather reports from April 25-27, 2011

The nearest significant damage from this outbreak was not the highly-publicized Alabama tornadoes, but a monster EF-5 that nearly wiped Smithville, MS (130 miles southeast of Memphis) off the map.  It was the first EF-5 recorded in the U.S. in three years and occurred almost simultaneously with another EF-5 about 100 miles south near Philadelphia, MS. Maximum wind was estimated at 205 mph along the 37-mile path of the twister.  In all, 17 people lost their lives and 40 more were injured.  A recap of the event, authored by WTVA meteorologist Jennifer Watson and MWN meteorologist Erik Proseus, appears on the MWN Blog and a video tribute can be found here.  Below are photos taken in Smithville three months after the storm by Erik.

Indeed, even though there were dozens of severe weather reports in the metro over the 3 day period (see image above), the Memphis area was actually spared from what could have been utter chaos similar to what was seen in places like Smithville, MS, Tuscaloosa/Birmingham, AL, and many other places in the southeast.  The greatest effect on Mid-Southerners from this outbreak though, in our opinion, was not from property damage, but on our psyche.  The extended period of destructive weather was well-forecast, beginning nearly a week ahead of time, and it received a lot of airtime (and a lot of hype) leading up to, through, and after the events that occurred.  The Memphis area was under a moderate risk of severe weather for two days, upgraded to a high risk on one of those, and then a slight risk on the day that all hell broke loose in MS and AL.  Multiple waves of severe storms, all capable of producing damage and potentially loss of life, passed through the region and at times it seemed the tornado sirens would never stop sounding.

All of this affected the psyche of the general public in different ways.  Some grew weary and began ignoring the warnings, which led to a complacency that is far more dangerous than the Weather Service missing a tornado warning.  Others grew fearful and became paralyzed, which leads to indecision during critical times.  Both of these have the opposite effect of what SHOULD be the public's reaction to severe warnings, which is to take action.  Part of MWN's mission is to ensure that the public is properly informed and prepared in case of severe weather; another part is to make sure that the public knows when to exercise their safety plan.  Through our severe weather nowcasting on social media, we hope to accomplish both of these. Our stats for the months of April and May indicate that we are doing a good job in both regards.  However, if we can reach more people, our hope is that the sense of complacency is replaced by preparedness on a broader scale. If it saves one life, it is well worth the effort.

#1. Mississippi River rises to within inches of an all-time record at Memphis
We now come to the #1 event in our countdown of the Top 11 of ’11 and without a doubt it’s an event Memphians and Mid-Southerners are sure to remember for years to come. With a long, snowy winter for much of the country in the rearview mirror, the warmth of spring began the annual melt of the deep snowpack in the northern states, sending large amounts of water into area rivers and tributaries. All of this water would begin flowing downstream into the Mississippi River by April. Meanwhile, multiple excessive rain events during the spring across the Ohio Valley (300% of normal) and Mid-South led to even more water pouring into the Mississippi River watershed. This combination of events led to a “perfect storm” of sorts, setting the table for an historic flooding event for the area.

While flash flooding and tributary flooding of rivers like the Wolf and Loosahatchie were a significant problem early on, especially in areas of northern and eastern Shelby County, the impacts from flooding on the Mississippi became much more severe and widespread. Record or near-record crests were forecast at multiple points, including Memphis. Making matters worse, backwater flooding from the Mississippi into the area tributaries would keep those water levels high as well, putting even more people at risk. As the waters began rising and homes and businesses became threatened, people evacuated to higher ground, waiting to see how high the river would go. That day came on May 10, and with much of the national media in Memphis, the river crested at 48.03 feet, just inches short of the all-time record of 48.7 feet during the Great Flood of 1937.  Pictures taken by MWN meteorologist Erik Proseus are contained in the photostream below.

In the days following, the waters would slowly recede, allowing people to return home and begin the cleanup process. Slowly but surely, affected businesses reopened, including the Tunica casinos which had been closed for weeks.  While the floods were devastating for many, they also brought people in our area together. Whether it was to donate to those affected or fill sandbags to keep the high waters at bay, it presented a classic example of the community spirit we often see in the area. Though the Great Flood of 2011 is now a memory, it’s an event that will be well-recorded in the history books and a memory that will remain with many of us for the rest of our lives.  For NOAA's perspective on this billion-dollar weather disaster, watch the video below.

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Thanks for following along on this five-part blog series.  It's definitely been an amazing weather year in the Mid-South and across the nation.  In fact, the U.S. experienced a record ELEVEN billion-dollar weather disasters in 2011.  Let's hope that 2012 is a quieter year weather-wise!  I also want to thank MWN intern Kevin Terry for contributing to this series, as well as his dedication as a blog and social media poster for MWN!  Kevin is signed on with MWN through the first half of 2012 and will continue with his regular duties through that time.

Follow along with MemphisWeather.net on Facebook and Twitter throughout 2012 for the latest weather conditions, forecasts, stats, and nowcasts.

The Top 11 of '11: Mid-South weather stories from MWN (part 4)

For the past 3 days, we've been counting down the Top 11 Mid-South weather stories of 2011. Today continues the countdown as we approach the top two events on Saturday. First, we unveil numbers 3-4. To catch you up, if you missed the first 7, here are the links:

• Part 1 (#11 Aurora Borealis appears in Mid-South skies, #10 MWN at the forefront of social media nowcasting, #9 Addition of key team members helps MWN expand it's presence)
• Part 2 (#8 Dual early-season accumulating snow events, #7 MemphisWeather.net debuts mobile apps, then raises the bar with StormWatch+)
• Part 3 (#6 Early April severe weather events foreshadow a busy season, #5 Severe weather season ends with one last round of storms in late May)

# 4. January-February snowstorms contribute to the snowiest winter in 25 years
For the third straight winter, snowfall was prevalent in 2010-2011.  Most of that snow fell in 5 events during January-February 2011. For the most part, each of the events were well-forecast and dropped "significant" snow (for the South) somewhere in the metropolitan area.  A brief recap of each event follows.

January 9-10 snowfall totals

January 9-10: The preferred storm track for accumulating snow materialized early in the month as low pressure moved along the Gulf Coast and an upper-level low traversed central MS. Snowfall totals were highest just north of the low as 6-10" fell over north MS.  The immediate metro area received 3-4", while areas north of the metro picked up1-2". The graphic at left summarizes the totals (click for larger image).  A Winter Storm Warning was issued ahead of the storm and the official total for Memphis was 3.0".

January 20 snowfall totals

January 20: Ten days later, another upper-level low, this one trailing a cold front, caused rain to change to snow during the afternoon hours, which continued into the evening. Snowfall totals ranged from 1" north of the city to 3" to the south.  Memphis International recorded 2.0" for this event.  Snowfall totals are shown in the graphic at right.

Snow cover visible on satellite Jan. 26

January 25: A very similar setup to January 9 occurred again on the 25th, only with lesser amounts of moisture, thus lower snowfall amounts.  Rain changed to snow in the late afternoon and continued through the evening, dropping 1.1" at the airport with higher amounts to the east and north.  Snow mainly fell over west TN with this event.


February 7: While most were people were looking ahead to a much larger event due in on the 9th, a quick-hitting system dropped amounts ranging from 0.2" at Memphis Int'l to 1.8" at MWN in Bartlett.

February 9 snowfall totals

February 9: This well-publicized and well-forecast event once again followed the preferred storm track as low pressure rode the Gulf Coast, pumping moisture into the Mid-South where cold air resided.  Highest snowfall amounts were again found over north MS and east-central AR where 3-6" amounts were common.  Lowest amounts were found over northeast AR and northwest TN.  In the metro, amounts were consistently in the 2-4" range, including 3.1" at Memphis.


By the end of the the winter, Memphis Int'l had recorded 9.7" of snow for the season, 6.1" over the normal of 3.1" and the most since the winter of 1987-88.  In addition, there were 6 days with measurable snowfall, the most since 1984-85.  Mid-South snowfall totals for the winter are shown in the graphic below.

Winter 2010-2011 snowfall amounts for the Mid-South

# 3. "The Summer of '11" - third hottest Memphis summer in recorded history

Many Mid-Southerners like to complain about the heat and humidity of the summer.  Many are transplanted northerners, others tolerate it for different reasons.  And while an average Memphis summer can be "sho'nuff" hot and humid, the summer of 2011 left even the most tolerant of us begging for 24x7 A/C - and for good reason.  By the first week in September, the National Weather Service had officially placed the summer of '11 in the record books as the third hottest behind the previous year (2010) and the benchmark for Memphis summers - 1980.  In fact, three of the past five summers, including 2007, are ranked in the top 5 hottest of all time (records go back to the 1880s).

The average temperature for this summer (meteorologically, June-July-August) was 84.6 degrees, which was 1.0 degree off the record summer of '80.  Several daily records were broken, including the record high of 106 on August 3, which fell 2 degrees shy of the all-time heat record set on July 13 in the storied year of 1980.  A few other sweltering stats about this summer: 10 daily heat records were set or tied; the average high and low in July was 95 and 77, respectively; and only 10 days during the three-month period failed to reach at least 90 for a high (five of those in mid-August). The heat started early with three records of 99 set in the first week of June and the June-July period tied 1980 for the hottest ever at 84.9 degrees.  For more details on each month's climate data, click these links:  June  July  August  Besides the heat, humidity levels were also abnormally high, even by Memphis standards, for long stretches this summer.  Heat indices soared above 110 and overnight lows failed to drop below 80 on several occasions, prompting Excessive Heat Warnings for the area.  With two summers in a row making the top 3, we're due for a cooler summer in 2012!

This leaves only the top 2 stories remaining!  What events topped one of the snowiest winters in recent memory and the third hottest summer ever?  Find out tomorrow as we conclude the "Top 11 of '11!"

The Top 11 of '11: Mid-South weather stories from MWN (part 3)

Continuing on in typical year-end countdown fashion, today's post contains weather events #5-6 in our "Top 11 of '11" - Mid-South weather stories of 2011. If you missed numbers 7-11, you can find them in part 1 and part 2 of this blog series.  Before I forget, let me also thank MWN intern Kevin for being a major contributor to this series!  If you follow MWN on Twitter (and if not, you should be), you'll recognize the next two stories as #memstorm events.

# 6. Early April severe weather events foreshadow a busy season
With the spring severe weather season upon the Mid-South, by early April few notable events had taken place. The most significant event to that point was a strong squall line of thunderstorms which passed through the northern portions on February 24. However, April wouldn't be around long before the severe weather season kicked into high gear with two high-impact events affecting the metro in a two-week period.

The first significant severe weather outbreak took shape on April 4. With a powerful upper level disturbance moving out of the Southern Plains, combining forces with a strong surface cold front and low pressure area, numerous thunderstorms began developing over Arkansas on the morning of the 4^th, quickly moving east. By noon, the thunderstorms began congealing into a large line segment as they crossed the Mississippi River, tapping into abundant low-level moisture and instability in place. This led to rapid intensification of the storms as they moved through the metro area, resulting in widespread, damaging straight-line winds. Wind gusts of 60-80+ mph led to numerous downed trees, power lines, and even some structural damage. Power outages were widespread with 70,000+ customers in the MLGW service area losing power. The line of thunderstorms continued growing and organizing as it pushed east, resulting in a nearly continuous swath of severe weather across the Southeast over the next 24 hours. In fact, the linear storm system, known as a “derecho” (like “Hurricane Elvis” in 2003), resulted in one of the largest severe thunderstorm outbreaks on record, with over 1400 reports of severe weather received (see image to left).

In the days following the April 4 outbreak, several smaller severe weather events affected the metro, including a damaging wind event on April 15, but it was April 19 when the next notable outbreak began to evolve. Very similar to the events of April 4, thunderstorms began forming over Arkansas and, as they approached the metro area during the evening, they began consolidating into a squall line, producing damaging straight-line winds. As the storms pushed east, the most significant damage again occurred in Shelby County. Wind gusts of 60-75 mph led to more downed trees, power lines and minor structural damage. This meant more significant power outages with 64,000 MLGW customers affected, some being the same who lost service on April 4. While the event wasn’t as intense as April 4, the rapid succession of severe weather during the month was already beginning to take its toll on Mid-South residents.

With April starting off on such an active note, some began to wonder if these events were just a foreshadowing of things to come and whether the worst was yet to come. Unfortunately and tragically, the 2011 severe weather season was just unfolding.

# 6. Severe weather season ends with one last round of storms in late May

Severe weather season was particularly harsh in 2011, starting with the early April rounds described above and continuing all the way until the end of May.  For the Mid-South, after 6 weeks of strong weather systems, nerves were frayed leading up to the last week in May as local meteorologists (MWN included) began building up an event that would take place on Wednesday, May 25, with the passage of another strong cold front.  The "edgy-ness" only got worse after the same storm system dropped an EF-5 bomb on Joplin, MO on May 22.

On the morning of the 25th, the Storm Prediction Center placed west TN and east AR under a "High Risk" threat (see image) - something we only see a couple of times a year at most - and indicated the "threat for tornadoes, some potential strong to violent and long-tracked" as they issued a Tornado Watch for the metro at 12:30pm.  A broken line of supercells formed along the cold front to our west in the afternoon and swept across the river into a moist and very unstable airmass during the early evening. Several Tornado Warnings were issued during the evening and there were several reports of large hail and damaging wind, though thankfully no tornadoes were ever confirmed.  The event could have been much worse given the conditions that had set up ahead of the system and it's history over previous days.  This round of severe weather would mark the end of severe weather season for the Mid-South and the start of one of the hottest summers on record.  More on that as we continue to countdown the biggest Mid-South weather events of 2011 (tease...)  Tomorrow we bring you events #4 and 3, with the top 2 weather stories of 2011 coming on New Year's Eve.

A reminder that during severe weather, MemphisWeather.net uses social media (specifically Facebook and Twitter) to "nowcast" events as they unfold.  We'll tell you where the storms are, where they are going, who they will affect and how, and when things have calmed down, all in our no-nonsense, no-hype manner. Join us, won't you? 8,000 others can't be wrong!

The Top 11 of '11: Mid-South weather stories from MWN (part 2)

Yesterday on the blog, we began the "Top 11 of  '11" series in typical Dave Letterman fashion, counting down #'s 11, 10, and 9.  If you missed it, you can find part 1 of this series here. Today we resume with #8 and #7, as we head towards #1 on New Year's Eve.  So without further adieu...

# 8. Dual early-season accumulating snow events
After a cold and snowy 2010-2011 winter - the snowiest in nearly 25 years (more on those events later in the countdown) - anticipation was high leading into the 2011-2012 winter on whether that trend would continue. It seems the answer came relatively quickly with the Mid-South experiencing two early-season snowfall events before winter officially began, including a very rare November snow!

The first of the two events occurred on November 28. As moderate to heavy rain fell throughout the afternoon, an upper-level low pressure center developed and tracked across the Mid-South, allowing colder air aloft to work towards the surface. As this took place, rain began changing to snow during the evening and though air and ground temperatures were borderline (generally above freezing), accumulations took place on grassy areas and other non-paved surfaces. While snow amounts in the immediate Memphis area were minor (generally a half inch or less) northern and eastern areas of the metro saw more significant accumulations, with 1-2” a common occurrence and localized higher amounts. Even more significant snow fell further to the north, with up to 4-6” reported in some areas of NE Arkansas, NW Tennessee, and the Missouri Bootheel. This rare November snowfall event was the earliest of the season in nearly 20 years!

Just nine days later, on December 7, as another upper level system was tracking across the region, rain again began changing to snow in the metro area during the early morning hours. As the snow persisted through rush hour, amounts began adding up, despite borderline temperatures once again an issue. By the time snow came to an end around mid-morning, 1-2” of snow lay across much of the metro, higher for most locations than seen on November 28^th. Some areas of Tipton and Fayette Counties even saw snow totals upwards of 3-4 inches! Though this system did not receive the hype of November 28^th beforehand and may have surprised some, it was a very well-forecast snow event, with MWN ramping up its forecast for snow in the 24 hours prior to the event, nailing the timing of snowfall to the hour the evening before!

Since these two early season events, the weather pattern in the Mid-South has transitioned into a milder one, but with such an active start, we’ll see if any events in the 2012 portion of this winter end up making next year’s list!

# 7. MemphisWeather.net debuts mobile apps, then raises the bar with StormWatch+
Back in the late winter of 2011, when our only mobile technology was a mobile version of the website, I saw a need for having dedicated "apps" for iPhone and Android if we were to continue to evolve and grow (in part thanks to demand from you, our customer!). Enter Ben Deming, who was also mentioned in yesterday's post at #9.  Ben and I quickly hit it off and created a win-win scenario whereby MWN's dedicated following is the ultimate winner!  In early March, version 1.0 of the MWN iPhone app hit the market. Just one short month later, Ben was able to crank out the Android app and MWN had the majority of the smartphone market covered with a dedicated app.  Features included current conditions, StormView Radar, MWN Forecast, Mid-South weather alerts map, various links, and the MWN Twitter feed.

Shortly after the app was released, I decided to take it a step further. Why not provide alerts to app users if they were in the path of the storm? I knew if implemented correctly that it could be a hit, mainly because people are siren-weary and frequently don't know where they are relative to the warning. Show them where they are, where the warning is, and alert them only if they are in the warning box. Enter StormWatch+ and the proclamation by the NWS that mobile alerting technology is part of the future of severe weather alert dissemination. After much testing and tweaking, the iPhone version of StormWatch+ was sent to Apple in mid-September. A well-documented 3 1/2 months later and we're still waiting on it's final approval by Apple to be released to you.  The Android version was released in mid-November.  Our plans for 2012 include a web-based interface that will allow those without smartphones to receive text messages or e-mail alerts of severe weather just as smartphone users receive push notifications.  The key is to only alert people if they are in harm's way.  We hope that this technology will go a long way towards reducing the apathy that the public has towards the severe weather warning process and ultimately save lives.

Tomorrow we reveal #'s 5 and 6 of the top 11 Mid-South weather events of 2011.  For our Twitter followers, a couple of #memstorm events are up next!  Stay tuned!

The Top 11 of '11: Mid-South weather stories from MWN (part 1)

Everybody does Top 10 lists to end the year (or daily if your name is David Letterman), so MWN decided we should too.  Only once we put together the list of Top 10 Mid-South weather stories of 2011, the list was 10+1, or 11 if you are up on your 1st grade math!  So we decided that since it was 2011 we were talking about, we'd make an exception and call it the "Top 11 of '11".  No word yet on whether there will be 12 next year... so without further delay we bring you (in true Letterman fashion, counting down from 11) the first 3:

"The Top 11 of '11" - Mid-South Weather Stories from MemphisWeather.net

# 11. Aurora Borealis appears in Mid-South skies
On the evening of October 24 around 9pm, I was checking my Twitter feed when people started reporting seeing a red glow in the sky across the southern states, including many Mid-South locations.  Reports from NC to AR, including locations as far south as northern AL and MS, were flooding my feed of mainly weather and news accounts. Quick sleuthing and some timely and informative tweets pointed to the event being a rare Aurora Borealis, which resulted from a coronal mass ejection from the sun early that afternoon. The image below was one that I highlighted in a blog post that evening that further described the event, including what causes the Aurora and why it was red.  While not unprecedented, it has been years since the Aurora has been visible this far south in the U.S.  Perhaps more of this type of solar activity will be possible as the lately-dormant sun enters an active sunspot period that peaks in a little over a year?

Aurora captured in Corning, AR on October 24, 2011

# 10. MWN at the forefront of social media nowcasting
While not a "weather event," one of the facets of weather reporting that has taken off in the past year is the explosion in nowcasting the weather via social media.  Nowcasting is very-short-term forecasting, most often encompassing only the next 1-4 hours.  More and more, operational meteorologists, broadcast professionals, and even enthusiasts are turning to Facebook and Twitter to update their audience on current weather events and solicit reports, particularly during severe weather episodes.  Even the National Weather Service has begun using social media.

MWN is proud to have been at the forefront of this new style of weather reporting, having started nowcasting for the Memphis metropolitan area nearly three years ago in the spring of 2009.  Thanks to some wild weather in greater Memphis this past year (more on these events as we continue the countdown) and momentum generated during our first couple of years on social media, MWN's nowcasting service quickly became well-known.  We are proud to say that we went "wall-to-wall" for every severe and winter event in 2011 and the growth in our follower-ship responded accordingly, tripling on both Facebook and Twitter!  Thank you for trusting us to keep you updated, safe, and informed during hazardous (and even placid) weather conditions!

• AP story on nowcasting, featuring MWN's Erik Proseus and David Drobny of Nashville
• "Tennessee Matters" interview with Erik on nowcasting, which was heard on the Tennessee Radio Network (MP3)
• MWN nowcasting on Facebook and Twitter

Exposure produced by MemphisWeather.net tweets on February 25, 2011

# 9. Addition of key team members helps MWN expand it's presence
There will be plenty of weather events in our Top 11 (in fact, we're saving many of the top spots just for those), but one other weather "story" for MemphisWeather.net this year was the addition of a few individuals to our team that allowed us to grow exponentially and expand our product and service offerings that directly benefit you.

• Though not employed by MWN, one of the best decisions I made in early 2011 was contracting with Ben Deming (@bendeming) to design and code our first-ever mobile applications.  Ben possesses a very broad skill set that allowed him to develop not only our iPhone app, but also an Android app, and assist with other minor software and server-related issues.
• Late this summer, a decision was made that, to continue to keep up the ambitious pace that MWN had grown to, we needed some help. The search began for individual with basic meteorology knowledge that was also teachable, interested in social media, and a good communicator, among other things.  It didn't take long to find the person who has evolved into my right hand man - social media nowcaster and blogger, Kevin Terry (@jterry0).  Kevin quickly embraced the mission of MWN, took over a sizable part of the nowcasting requirements, and allowed me to work on expanding MWN's presence through new services and marketing efforts.  Kevin will remain with MWN through at least June 2012.
• Though those are the two individuals I deal with most often, there are certainly others whose contributions have allowed MWN to rapidly expand this year.  They include: Wayne Randall, owner of IT company Nextek, whose generous offer of server space in his data center ensures the reliable delivery of products and services to MWN; Amy Howell (@howellmarketing) and Alys Drake (@alysdrake) of world-class marketing firm Howell Marketing Strategies, who assist in making sure the MWN story is told; and countless others in Memphis and Mid-South social media and business circles who help us disseminate our words and information to the masses - you know who you are, and we thank you!

Those are the first 3 of the "Top 11 of '11"! We'll reveal a couple more each day through New Year's Eve here on the MWN Blog  (and I promise they won't be weighted nearly as heavily on MWN but much more about actual weather events!).  What Mid-South weather event do you think should be #1 this year?

Upper level low brings unsettled weather through Tuesday

Merry Christmas!  Well, it's not snow, but it is a couple of rain chances that we'll deal with over the next 60 hours or so.  The responsibility for the rain chances falls squarely on an upper level low pressure system currently centered over far western TX (see the image below).  The first round of rainfall will move mainly over the Gulf Coast states with the northern edge of it roughly paralleling the TN-MS state line overnight tonight.  A few lingering showers are possible Christmas morning, mainly over north MS, but rainfall amounts over west TN should remain very light tonight if it rains at all.

Upper level low (UL) position this evening with  precip well ahead of it moving across the  Gulf Coast states

Once this first slug of moisture moves by, we'll be waiting for the next round, which arrives Monday into Tuesday.  The greater Memphis area will see much better rain chances with this one as the low itself finally ejects out of west TX and moves towards Dallas by Monday evening (see next image below).  In fact, some areas could see heavy rain on already wet ground on Monday evening/overnight.

Upper level low (UL) position as of Monday evening (note very little movement between now and then) with the next round of precipitation moving out ahead of it

By Tuesday morning, the computer model used in these images (GFS) indicates that the upper low will be moving directly over the Mid-South.  Though the main area of precipitation will have moved east of us, showery weather is typical with passing upper lows, so that is what we expect until the low moves by mid-day Tuesday (as shown below).  We'll keep a very close eye on Tuesday morning temperatures as well.  Though temperatures are expected to remain above freezing, we'll monitor for the potential for a few snowflakes as the system moves overhead that morning.  Once it finally moves east, the weather pattern looks drier for a few days to end the holiday week.

Upper level low (UL) position as of noon Tuesday with lingering showers over the Mid-South under the low

For MemphisWeather.net, I wish you and yours a blessed and wonderful Christmas Day!

--Erik Proseus, Meteorologist

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For weather information for Memphis and the Mid-South, where and when you need it, visit MemphisWeather.net on the web, m.memphisweather.net on your mobile phone, download our iPhone or Android apps, or visit us on Facebook or Twitter.

Latest forecast update through Christmas Day

In our last blog post on Sunday, we noted computer models were having a very tough time figuring out the weather pattern over the Mid-South for the latter part of the week, including Christmas weekend, and that the forecast was subject to change as the week progressed. Now, 72 hours later, models have come into agreement on one potential storm system during this period for Thursday, but unfortunately there still remains some disagreement and uncertainty concerning the weather on Saturday, Christmas Eve, especially. A closer look at the latest possibilities for the holiday weekend is coming up.

First, model agreement and confidence for the next 24 to 48 hours has considerably increased as the next storm system to impact the area will soon be developing and moving through the area. After a warm and rainy Tuesday, much cooler air has filtered into the region following the passage of a cold front overnight. However, this front will be stalling later today just to our southeast, as low pressure develops over Louisiana tonight. This low pressure area will track northeastward along the stalled boundary Thursday which should spread more rain into the Mid-South. Rain should begin by morning and persist much of the day, tapering off during the late afternoon. It will be a much colder rain than what we experienced Tuesday, with temperatures likely to hold in the upper 40s to near 50 degrees during the day. Rainfall amounts look to be rather heavy, around an inch (see image below). You’ll want to have the rain gear ready again for Thursday and allow for extra commute time, especially during the morning rush.

GFS model rain totals from 6am-6pm Thursday, with 1” totals indicated across the Memphis metro .

As the low pressure area departs Thursday evening, drier conditions will once again return as weak high pressure begins to take hold. Friday should be a dry day, but low-level clouds will likely linger with temperatures remaining on the cool side, in the upper 40s. Uncertainty comes back into play for Saturday, as models continue to struggle over a potential storm system developing and passing to our south during this period. Models appear to finally be coming into agreement over the actual presence of a low pressure system, but continue to differ on its exact track and placement of any associated precipitation, which will impact whether the metro area sees any rainfall.

At this time, there still appears to be at least a low chance for rain, with the greatest opportunity likely to occur around Saturday night. Rainfall, should it occur, would be on the light side, and temperatures appear as if they will remain warm enough to keep rain as the only possible precipitation type. No matter the impacts it brings to our area, it looks to move off to the east Christmas Day, which means drying conditions and clearing skies should occur, with temperatures remaining near the seasonal average, in the lower 50s.

GFS weather depiction for Christmas Day at Noon. Any light rain Sat night will have exited to the east, with the best chances for precipitation nationally across the Pacific Northwest and light snow possible in the Great Lakes region. Much of the nation is likely to have a dry Christmas.

Of course, this means those looking for a white Christmas are likely to be disappointed again this year, but this should be no surprise given our area’s history. Measureable snow has only fallen once on Christmas Day itself, in 1913 (3.5” total), though snow flurries have fallen on several other years, including last year. Snow has been on the ground Christmas Day from previous storms several times, most recently in 2004, with the greatest snow depth recorded in 1963 when a whopping 10” was still on the ground! That white Christmas followed one of the biggest snowstorms in Memphis history on December 22, which also resulted in the coldest low temperature on record for the city, a bone-chilling -13F on Christmas Eve morning!  Video below is taken from public domain footage of a news story about the record snow just before Christmas 1963.

With confidence still rather low on Saturday’s weather, and the forecast subject to change, you’ll want to continue to stay with MemphisWeather.Net for the very latest updates.  We'll keep you updated via the MWN Forecast and Facebook and Twitter.

--Kevin Terry, MemphisWeather.Net

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For weather information for Memphis and the Mid-South, where and when you need it, visit MemphisWeather.net on the web, m.memphisweather.net on your mobile phone, download our iPhone or Android apps, or visit us on Facebook or Twitter.

Mild weather, rain chances leading up to Christmas

Since our last early-season snow event on December 7^th, the weather pattern over the Mid-South has transitioned into a much milder one, with occasional rain chances and brief cool-downs. As we head into the upcoming week, leading into Christmas, it appears this pattern will continue to hold. So does that mean no White Christmas for the Mid-South again this year? An early look at what may happen is coming up!

After a return to colder temperatures in the Mid-South for a couple of days following the passage of a cold front, high pressure has shifted to our southeast again, meaning southerly winds, increasing moisture and milder temperatures are back as we typically see. After nearing 60 this afternoon, we’ll exceed it on Monday ahead of the next system organizing to our west. Mid and high level cloudiness will be increasing, but rain chances should hold off until at least Monday night.

As the cold front and associated low pressure system approach late Monday night into Tuesday, rain will begin overspreading the area, with the wettest period between Tuesday morning and afternoon, when a few thunderstorms are possible. Fortunately, instability is expected to remain fairly minimal, meaning the chances of severe weather should be very low. Rainfall amounts will likely average around one-half of an inch, with local totals up to one inch possible.

NAM model forecast for 6am Tuesday morning shows rain (possibly a few thunderstorms) moving into the Mid-South ahead of a cold front and low pressure area in Oklahoma; Meanwhile a blizzard may be ongoing across portions of the Plains states.

This same storm system is expected to result in a major winter storm, with possibly blizzard conditions, across portions of New Mexico, Colorado, the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles, and much of Kansas between Monday and Tuesday (see above). If you have any travel plans in that area, be aware that hazardous if not dangerous conditions are possible during this period.

The front should clear the region Tuesday night, with slightly cooler weather for Wednesday and Thursday as highs fall back to the 50s. We’ll get a chance to dry out Wednesday, but not far behind will be the next system passing to our southeast Thursday. Unfortunately, computer models are not in agreement on how close it will be to the Mid-South, which will ultimately determine how much, if any, rainfall we might see. For now, a chance of rain exists for Thursday, but this is subject to change as the week progresses.

Many are already looking forward to the expected weather for the all-important Christmas weekend, but so far confidence is not high as models are diverging on possible outcomes. Some are suggesting an unsettled pattern, which may result in chances for rain. For those “dreaming” of a White Christmas, it may have to remain that way yet another year as at this point temperatures do not look supportive of wintry precipitation. Of course, the forecast will become better defined in the coming days as new model data is available, allowing us to more confidently rule out any and all weather possibilities for Christmas weekend. Stay tuned!

--Kevin Terry, MemphisWeather.Net

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For weather information for Memphis and the Mid-South, where and when you need it, visit MemphisWeather.net on the web, m.memphisweather.net on your mobile phone, download our iPhone or Android apps, or visit us on Facebook or Twitter.

"Slower than Christmas" - what happened to the MWN iPhone app?

Partially in response to many of you who have inquired about the MemphisWeather.net iOS (iPhone, iPad, iPod Touch) app and partially out of frustration with the (lack of) developments in getting this app released, what follows is a recap of what has transpired over the past 90 days with regards to our MWN app.

Without detailing the early days of the MWN app in great detail, Cirrus Weather Solutions began development of an iOS app early in 2011 in response to multiple requests from our friends and followers.  On March 2, version 1.0 of the app was released.  We have since provided a few updates to fix minor issues and add new features.  All updates have gone smoothly with Apple.  [For those that are not aware, those with Apple Developer accounts can upload apps and updates to those apps to Apple, which then go through a required review process (see below for simplified schematic) by the Apple App Review Board. Once the App Review Board has checked the app out, they release it for sale to the public.  In our limited experience and learning through research, there is generally a lag of a couple of days from submission of the app/update to when the Review Board picks up the app for review.  Then, a few more days pass before it is approved (or rejected if they find an issue) for sale.]

This summer, version 2.0 of the app was conceived, which would include StormWatch+, our customized weather warning technology that uses Apple's push notification service to alert users of impending severe weather.  StormWatch+ was designed as an "in-app upgrade," meaning that those who wish can purchase the premium service from within the app itself.  Version 2.0 itself is a free update from previous versions.  In early September, after a couple of months of development, testing, bug fixes, and an extended period of beta testing with volunteer testers using their personal devices, the app was deemed ready for submission to Apple and it was uploaded for review.  The App Review Board placed the app into "In Review" status on September 15 and approved it an hour later - the fastest we had experienced to this point!  We released the app to the public, downloads commenced, and then almost immediately, so did the crash reports.  Users were unable to launch the app without it crashing immediately.

Since the release of the app was broadcast via our large social media following, we had no choice but to pull it from the App Store to prevent users from downloading the "bad app" and losing faith in us. (Never did we imagine that three months later nothing would have changed.) We immediately got to work on the issue, found the problem within a couple of hours (that did not manifest itself in either extensive beta testing or, apparently, Apple's one hour of testing), and provided a software fix.  The corrected app (version 2.0.1) was uploaded to Apple for review that evening (September 15) and was accepted into the review process on September 20.  So far, everything was on track. Then the waiting began........

After 3 weeks, on October 6, we used a couple of different electronic forms to contact the App Review Board for a status update, as we had never waited more than a week for a review previously.  Auto-responses with follow-up case numbers were generated, but no human response.  The following week, on October 11, four weeks after submitting the fixed version of the app, a decision was made by us to reject the app currently in queue then re-submit it, thinking that it was just "lost in Apple cyberspace."  The app was re-submitted the same day and was tagged by Apple as "In Review" again on October 17.  The status has not changed to this day despite multiple attempts to get status reports, escalate the issue, etc.

The only correspondence from Apple was an unsigned e-mail on November 1 indicating that "the review process will require additional time," another automated e-mail following a status request on November 11, and a signed status update on November 16 (following another status request) saying: "Your app is still in Review. Occasionally we encounter circumstances that require additional time to complete a review, and this is one such time."

Finally, on December 2, I located a toll-free number on the Apple Developer website (that I later found out was to the Enrollment Department), which I called.  Jared was very responsive and apologized for the extensive wait and assured me that this was unusual.  He documented the case, took follow-up case numbers I had been assigned on each e-mail received from Apple, and promised a response of some sort in 30 minutes, as well as an "escalation" to the App Review Board.  I received the promised response, as well as an e-mail on December 5 indicating that the inquiry was being handled.  I once again called the toll-free number and was told by another very helpful individual that the MWN app was in "Active Review" but they could not provide additional information.  A couple more calls since the 5th have  revealed that the Enrollment Department actually has no contact with the App Review Board and is not able to get any information on the status of the app other than that which had already been provided.  The App Review Board is only accessible via e-mail (an address which we have used).  Jared had gone above and beyond, which I was grateful for, but we still do not have a satisfactory resolution.

It has been nearly three months since the MWN app has been in the App Store, thanks to a review process at Apple that is severely lacking in many areas.  While the individuals I have spoken with on the phone have always been very courteous and helpful, their hands are apparently tied.  The only way to reach the App Review Board is via e-mail and they are either understaffed, overburdened with reviews, or just plain unresponsive.  As we approach the end of the calendar year and the designated "Apple Holiday Shutdown" from Dec 22-29 (in which no apps are reviewed and no new or updated apps are accepted), there is no doubt that the workload has increased.  The MWN app should never have been a part of that workload if it had been approved in September as expected.  If the app can be approved in AN HOUR with a bug that causes it to crash on launch, why does it take three months to approve a FIX to that bug??


To all of you who have been waiting for an update to your crashing app, who have expressed an interest in purchasing the app, or who have been waiting for months to upgrade to StormWatch+, our sincerest apologies.  We'll continue to work towards a resolution, but make no promises other than as soon as the app is released to us for inclusion in the App Store, we will make it available to you and let you know.  Please stay updated on it's status by following us on Facebook or Twitter (@memphisweather1 and @mwnstormwatch), follow this blog, keep an eye on the MWN website, and/or subscribe to our newsletter.  All methods will carry the announcement as soon as it is available.

We are trying to be patient and we ask for you to be as well.  Then, as soon as it's ready, get it!  StormWatch+ offers the most advanced mobile weather alerting technology available anywhere and we're very proud to be able to offer it!


Respectfully,

Erik Proseus
Owner, Cirrus Weather Solutions
MemphisWeather.net

Benjamin Deming
MWN App Developer
Deming Design and Development

Mild weather and rain chances return to the Mid-South this week

After a period of dry and cool weather (cold in fact), we're undergoing another shift in the upper-level pattern that will bring milder and likely wetter conditions for the next several days.  Luckily, it appears we get to enjoy some of the "warmer" before the "wetter" moves in!

High pressure is shifting to our east, which means the wind is now starting to turn to the south.  Most people familiar with Mid-South weather patterns know that a south wind typically means warmer air and also more moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and this will be the case for the next few days.  The additional moisture will result in increased cloud cover, but fortunately rain will hold off until Wednesday night.  Temperatures will warm from the mid 50s today to near 60 Tuesday and possibly near 70 degrees on Wednesday.

On Thursday morning, a frontal system will pass through the region bringing a round of rain and some thunderstorms thanks to increased instability and temperatures in the 60s ahead of the front. Most of the rain should fall from early morning through mid-day Thursday, with a few showers lingering into the afternoon. The front will not have a great deal of cold air behind it and, in fact, will stall just to our south. This will set the stage for additional scattered showers to move across the region on Friday and early Saturday as an upper-level wave moves through on the "southern stream," or jet stream over the southern U.S. A short dry period is likely over the weekend before another chance of rain moves in Monday.

Stay with MemphisWeather.net for the latest forecast and follow our Facebook and Twitter feeds (links below) for any short-term forecast changes.

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For weather information for Memphis and the Mid-South, where and when you need it, visit MemphisWeather.net on the web, m.memphisweather.net on your mobile phone, download our iPhone or Android apps, or visit us on Facebook or Twitter.

Snow again! Recap of the 2nd Mid-South snow event of winter '11-'12

It may seem like déjà vu, and it’s still not even officially winter yet, but for the second time in just nine days, accumulating snow has made a visit to the Mid-South! With another upper level disturbance moving across the region overnight through Wednesday morning, precipitation which broke out Tuesday evening across central Arkansas began to move into the metro area. As colder temperatures and stronger upper-level dynamics moved in, light rain quickly changed to snow and the result was another decent accumulation event for much of the metro. For some areas, snow amounts were heavier than seen in the November 28-29 event, even though the event did not get nearly the hype prior to onset.

While it may have been a surprise to some, computer models came into agreement on the likelihood for snow accumulation in the area on Tuesday morning. Given the higher confidence presented by the model solutions, MemphisWeather.Net ramped up our snow forecast accordingly during the day and pretty much nailed the event by Tuesday evening.  In fact, in this blog post, we provided a window of 1-3am for snow onset and 10am for an end time.  Memphis Int'l Airport officially switched over to snow at 2:11am and the snow ended at 10:18am!  We also predicted about an inch on grassy and elevated surfaces last night. While some locations in the northern metro got about 3" of snow, the official observation from Memphis was 1.3" with many metro locations reporting 1.5-2.0".

Similar to the November 28-29 event, temperatures throughout the duration of snowfall were borderline, with readings near the freezing mark. This meant that snow accumulation once again mainly occurred on grassy surfaces and elevated or non-paved surfaces. However, where heavier snow fell and temperatures briefly dipped to 31-32, some slush did accumulate on roadways in outlying areas and on a few bridges and overpasses area wide. Fortunately, travel impacts still remained limited overall.

In the city of Memphis, snow amounts were more significant compared to last week’s event, with several locations recording 1 to 2 inches of total accumulation. Memphis International Airport received 1.3”, with 1.8” at the National Weather Service in East Memphis. Other locations in Shelby County received similar amounts, and these amounts were also common in the other metro counties. Higher snow totals were found across portions of Tipton and Fayette County, another similarity to last week, with some localized areas reporting unofficial accumulation of 3 to even 4 inches!  Some pics we took this morning are below.

Snow on the weather equipment in the backyard at MWN. 1.5" total.

North Bartlett about 8:15am.

Austin Peay (Highway 14) at Old Brownsville - 8:15am.

The system responsible for the snow began moving east of the metro by mid-morning, bringing an end to the precipitation. Once snow ended, temperatures began warming back above freezing and snow quickly started melting. By late afternoon, patchy areas of snow on grassy surfaces were about the only remnant left from this morning’s snow event and clouds were just moving out, creating a nice sunset for many to enjoy.

Back edge of clouds entering the Memphis metro. Taken at I-240 west of Airways.

It’s certainly been an early and active start to the winter weather season in the Mid-South! If you don't want to be surprised by another snow storm, be sure to stay updated with MemphisWeather.Net.  We'll keep you posted on all weather threats and potential impacts, including any potential for winter weather over the next few months.

--Kevin Terry & Erik Proseus, MemphisWeather.Net

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For weather information for Memphis and the Mid-South, where and when you need it, visit MemphisWeather.net on the web, m.memphisweather.net on your mobile phone, download our iPhone or Android apps, or visit us on Facebook or Twitter.

Another chance at snow with passing upper-level trough

UPDATED AT 8:35PM - CHANGES IN RED..... EP

Less than a week removed from one of the most anticipated early-season snow events in recent Mid-South history and we're looking at yet another chance of the white stuff on Wednesday.  The hype is definitely muted versus the last storm, and for good reason.  Though the upper-level energy that this system will bring is impressive, the degree of moisture available is much less compared to last week's system and there is very little support near the surface in terms of dynamics.  No big cold front, not even much of a hint of low pressure at the surface - this is strictly an upper level system.

Taking a brief look at the wave in the upper levels (~18,000 feet) that will bring this shot of wintry precip, the graphics below show the position of the atmospheric energy (what we call "absolute vorticity" in the world of meteorology) as of mid-afternoon (top graphic) and at 9am Wednesday.  The brighter colors equate to a stronger system, so you can see that it is strengthening and organizing as it approaches.  Since the green lines don't completely form a circle in the lower graphic, it is not a "closed low," rather just a strong trough.

An upper-level trough races through the region over the next 18 hours, bringing another chance of wintry weather

The atmosphere will be most supportive of precipitation ahead of and under the upper trough, so we expect we could see some form of precipitation after midnight until mid to late morning Wednesday.  Low-level temperatures and moisture depth will define the precipitation type. Given the model data available (which all agrees fairly well), we expect to see some light snow after 1-3am, lasting through rush hour before tapering off after 10am as a rain/snow mix. Temperatures should remain at 33 or just above for the city and most suburbs during the event, though some outlying areas could see 31-32 degrees around and shortly after daybreak. Snow amounts will be minor, perhaps an inch or so on grassy and elevated surfaces.  The vast majority of the city and suburban primary and secondary roads will just be wet.

The good news is that behind this departing system, the clouds will finally begin to move out and we will likely see some sun before it sets tomorrow afternoon.  The remainder of the forecast is dry and cool.  Details can be found on the MWN Forecast page.  We'll provide updates via Facebook and Twitter as needed throughout the event (links below).

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For weather information for Memphis and the Mid-South, where and when you need it, visit MemphisWeather.net on the web, m.memphisweather.net on your mobile phone, download our iPhone or Android apps, or visit us on Facebook or Twitter.

November 2011 Climate Data and Forecast Accuracy

November reversed October's trend of cool and dry weather by averaging warmer and wetter conditions than normal for the month.

Memphis International Airport, Memphis, TN

The average temperature for the month of November was 55.9 degrees, which was 2.7 degrees above normal. The average high temperature was 64.7 degrees and the average low was 47.1. The coolest temperature of the month was 31 degrees on the 29th and 30th, while the highest temperature was 79 degrees set on the 14th.  The low temperatures of 31 on the last two days of the month were the only two days in which freezing temperatures were recorded, ending the 2011 growing season at 261 days or 30 more than the average season.

Precipitation for the month totaled 7.71", which was 2.22" above average.  There were 11 days with measurable rainfall (all recorded at least 0.10") and 5 of those days had more than 0.50". The greatest 24-hour total was 2.30" on the 21st. The peak wind gust was 45 mph on the 13th with an average wind speed for the month of 10.0 mph. Snowfall for the month totaled 0.1" due to a snow storm that brought 0.1" on the 29th and a trace on the 30th.  Areas in the northern metro region saw snowfall totals of 1-2" from this snow event.  Click here for a daily statistical recap for Memphis International Airport.

Cirrus Weather Solutions, Bartlett, TN

The average November temperature at Cirrus Weather Solutions in north Bartlett was 54.0 degrees with a maximum of 77.9 degrees on the 14th and a minimum of 24.4 degrees on the 18th.  November precipitation was slightly less than the Memphis airport, totaling 8.27", which was the wettest month at Cirrus Weather Solutions since May. A co-located manual gauge used for the CoCoRaHS program measured 8.84". Snowfall totaled 0.5" on the 29th and a trace on the 30th. The peak wind gust was 33 mph on the 13th. Average relative humidity was 71%. Click here for a daily recap on MemphisWeather.net.

MWN Forecast Accuracy

For the month of November, the average temperature error in all MWN temperature forecasts was 2.70 degrees, lower than all compared computer models including the NWS by at least 12%. Over 55% of the MWN temperature forecasts for the month were within 2 degrees of the actual temperature. MWN's forecasts extend out five periods (or 2.5 days). For dewpoint accuracy, the MWN forecast beat all data sources, averaging 2.40 degrees error and falling within 2 degrees of the actual dewpoint almost 66% of the time. Historical accuracy statistics can be found here.

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For weather information for Memphis and the Mid-South, where and when you need it, visit MemphisWeather.net on the web, m.memphisweather.net on your mobile phone, download our iPhone or Android apps, or visit us on Facebook or Twitter.

Potential heavy rain, flooding event for the Mid-South Sunday-Monday

After our first snow of the season earlier this week, the weather over the Mid-South has rebounded nicely with temperatures back in the 60s this Friday and snow a rather distant memory. However, the nice weather won’t be sticking around much longer as yet another cold front will be on the approach this weekend. Unfortunately, it’s another front that looks to stall over the region and set up a prolonged period of rainy conditions, with concern growing for a potential flooding event that may last through Monday night.

Before discussing our possible heavy rain event, some good news for those planning to run the St. Jude Memphis Marathon Saturday morning as weather conditions will be fantastic. Skies look to be partly sunny to mostly cloudy, with starting temperatures in the mid 40s, rising to around 60 by midday. Winds will be out of the south at 10 to 15 mph. Even as the race is ongoing, clouds will gradually be on the increase as moisture increases ahead of our cold front of interest.

The cold front will begin moving through Arkansas and Missouri Saturday night, with a large area of rain expected to be moving slowly east along and ahead of it. This rain will begin moving into the Memphis metro area by Sunday morning. As the front approaches our area, strong high pressure from the surface to aloft over the Southeast U.S. will further slow the front’s progress, eventually bringing it to a stall Sunday afternoon. Unfortunately, models are coming into agreement that the front’s stall will occur right over the metro area (see image below). As this happens, moderate to heavy rain will persist and train over the region through Sunday night and likely into much of Monday as well, bringing copious amounts of rainfall. Though periods of heavy rain are likely, thunderstorms are not expected at this time.

Surface weather map forecast from the National Weather Service for Sunday evening, showing the cold front stalling over the metro area. This will allow for rainfall, some heavy, to train over the region through the night into Monday.

Between Sunday morning and Monday evening, very heavy amounts of rainfall are possible, between 3 and 6 inches. Some areas may see amounts in excess of 6” (see image below). Combined with ground that is already quite wet from previous rain events, concern is increasing for flooding during this period. Flash flooding would be especially likely on roadways and in low-lying and poor drainage areas.  Because water levels on several area rivers, streams and creeks are elevated from previous rain events, flooding in these areas are a possibility as well, that may persist or increase even after rain ends.

Forecast total precipitation for the next several days from the National Weather Service indicates rainfall amounts in the metro in excess of 4”, with nearly 7” depicted in the heart of the metro area. The heaviest rain is expected Sunday and Monday. 

It appears the cold front will begin moving once again late in the day Monday, bringing in much colder air and allowing heavier rain to slowly move east of the region during the night. Temperatures will drop into the 30s by Tuesday morning, and some lighter precipitation may persist into part of the day. As this occurs, there is a chance some of the leftover rain may begin to mix with or turn over to very light snow. At this time, it is expected most of the moisture will have exited the region well before colder air arrives, so major winter weather issues are not anticipated. Much cooler temperatures are likely to persist through the remainder of next week behind the front.

As the threat of flooding increases, the National Weather Service has issued a Flood Watch for the entire area, which goes into effect Sunday morning and will last through Monday evening. Flash Flood and/or River Flood Warnings may be required as heavy rain develops Sunday into Monday. If you are in a flood prone area, you should remain especially aware of developments with this system. Remember, if you encounter a flooded roadway, Turn Around, Don’t Drown!

Stay in close touch with MemphisWeather.Net over the weekend for the very latest. Our MWN Storm Center and forecast page will have full and updated details, with social media nowcasting on Facebook and Twitter expected as well.

NOTE: MemphisWeather.Net’s StormView Radar will be unavailable during this event (and through approximately December 15) due to the ongoing upgrade of the NWS Doppler radar in Millington, TN to dual polarization technology. Alternate links from surrounding radars are available on our StormView Radar webpages, as well as on our mobile site (m.memphisweather.net), and will be frequently advertised on our social media pages. On the MWN Android and iPhone apps, radar data will NOT be available due to programming restraints. We apologize greatly for this inconvenience.

--Kevin Terry, MemphisWeather.Net 

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For weather information for Memphis and the Mid-South, where and when you need it, visit MemphisWeather.net on the web, m.memphisweather.net on your mobile phone, download our iPhone or Android apps, or visit us on Facebook or Twitter.