The Mid-South has been able to
enjoy some very pleasant weather since the weekend as strong high pressure has taken
control of our weather and kept any significant weather systems at bay. However, as the high pressure shifts east
toward the Atlantic coast, the path is now cleared for a developing storm
system to our west that will begin affecting Mid-South weather late Wednesday
night. This system will mark the beginning of a lengthy period of rain chances.
Prior to any rain’s arrival, the
weather through most of Wednesday will remain rather pleasant and quite mild
for early March. Temperatures will rise into the lower 70s under mostly
cloudy skies though winds will stay strong and gusty as they were during the
day today. Meanwhile, a surface low
pressure area will begin developing over the Southwest U.S. Wednesday night,
with a cold front extending to the northeast of it. This front will enter the
Mid-South region Thursday.
The first showers may begin
moving into the area late Wednesday night, but the heaviest of rain will move
in with the front on Thursday afternoon and night. Some thunderstorms are
expected as well, but fortunately this is not a system that will favor any
severe weather. However, some of the rain could be quite heavy, with rain
totals of 2-4” possible in the metro by Friday morning. Due to the recent dry conditions, widespread
flooding is currently not anticipated, but some local issues could develop
where the heaviest totals occur.
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| NWS rain totals expected through Sunday night. The Memphis area could see up to 4" of rain. |
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| European model forecast for 6 PM Thursday |
This first front should clear the
region by late Friday morning and this means drier weather moves into the area
for later in the day. Some light showers may persist, but this break should
last through much of Saturday. Then, another storm system begins to organize to
our west, and high rain chances return to the area late Saturday night and
especially Sunday. Another extended period of rain is possible, perhaps lasting
into Monday, with additional heavy rainfall totals. At this time, the threat of
severe weather appears low here as well.
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| European model forecast for 6 PM Sunday |
This second system looks to clear
the area by Tuesday and that should signal the return of a drier overall
pattern for the rest of next week. It should be noted there remains
a great deal of discrepancy in computer models for this entire period, so
forecast details are subject to change in the days ahead. However, the current
MWN forecast and this blog lean heavily on the European weather model, which
has been reliably consistent with not only this period but also for much of the
past several weeks and previous weather systems.
Stay with MemphisWeather.Net for the very latest on extended rain chances in the coming days. Additionally, for the full and up-to-date forecast for greater Memphis, be sure to visit our forecast page!
--Kevin Terry, MemphisWeather.Net
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For weather information for Memphis and the Mid-South, where and when you need it, visit MemphisWeather.net on the web, m.memphisweather.net on your mobile phone, download our iPhone or Android apps, or visit us on Facebook or Twitter.
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