Thursday morning update on today's potential severe weather

The past couple of days (Tuesday and Wednesday), we've discussed the possibility of morning storms today that could "scrub" the atmosphere of instability and greatly reduce our chances of severe weather today.  If you have looked outside, you see that that didn't happen. Here is the setup as of 7am this morning:

Weather setup for Thursday morning

Forecast models

Two clusters of storms are bypassing the region, with a trough and frontal boundary moving towards the area from the northwest as the day goes on. We'll be watching east AR for thunderstorm development late this morning that would affect the metro.  Computer models are in two camps this morning. High-res models generally think that we'll see a round of storms early this afternoon out ahead of the front, with another potential round this evening as the front actually moves through around 9-10pm. The legacy models lean more towards a round of storms later in the afternoon with very little along the front that arrives later, closer to midnight.

Severe Weather Chances

As for our chances of severe weather, a Slight Risk is posted for the entire metro. The graphics below highlight the risk area as well as the probabilities of various severe weather types.  Our primary threat will be damaging straight-line wind (a 30% chance of 58+ mph wind within 25 miles of your location over west TN and north MS), with a secondary threat of severe (1") hail. Given the lack of a favorable low level wind profile and barely-sufficient low level moisture, the tornado threat is hardly  worth mentioning.

Severe weather graphics for Thursday

Mid-Southerners should be prepared for the possibility of strong to severe thunderstorms from lunchtime through the evening.  Behind the front, MUCH cooler weather is expected Friday with highs only in the mid 70s.  Lows Saturday morning will be in the 50s with highs again below normal (in the lower 80s) on Saturday.

MWN will provide nowcasting throughout the day on our social channels listed below.  It's also a good time to pick up our mobile app for Android or iPhone with StormWatch+, which will alert you if your location is in the path of a severe thunderstorm.

Stay weather aware and have your umbrellas handy today!  We could certainly use some rain!

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For weather information for Memphis and the Mid-South, where and when you need it, visit MemphisWeather.net on the web, m.memphisweather.net on your mobile phone, download our iPhone or Android apps, or visit us on Facebook or Twitter.

Slight risk for severe weather again on Thursday (updated)

Wednesday, 8:15pm update:

It appears computer models are holding off on any early morning precipitation for the Mid-South. Given the information provided in the blog post immediately below, our confidence is increasing we will see some severe thunderstorms in and around the area beginning anytime after late morning.  The most likely time will be during the afternoon and early evening hours.  Though a tornado threat can't be completely ruled out, the primary threats with tomorrow's storms will be large hail and high wind.  Storms should form into clusters or lines, which could heighten the straight-line wind threat.

MWN will provide nowcasting via social media throughout the event tomorrow.  Now is a good time to arm yourself for the potential of severe weather with the MemphisWeather.net app with StormWatch+.  StormWatch+ is our personalized severe weather notification tool that will warn the locations you input when severe weather threatens.  Check it out now on iTunes/App Store or Google Play for Android.

Previous blog entry:

The Mid-South is under a Slight Risk of severe weather for Thursday. How the scenario plays out is the subject of this blog.

Another day has brought little clarification in exactly how tomorrow's weather scenario will unfold as the biggest factor in possible severe weather appears to be how overnight convection (storms) plays out to our west.  What appears certain is that at least part of Arkansas will experience one or more mesoscale convective systems (MCS's) overnight that will move generally east and weaken as they approach the metro around dawn.  These types of systems can have several effects on the weather downstream, both positive and negative, depending on their ultimate evolution.  Some of this was hashed out in last evening's blog on the topic.

Multiple mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) traverse the Plains and Midwest (June 27, 2011)

Upstream MCS activity can bring extensive cloud cover or rain to an area as they fall apart during the early morning hours, thus providing a stabilizing influence and limiting renewed thunderstorms later in the day. The atmospheric disturbances (mesoscale convective vortices - MCV's) that linger following the demise of these systems also can bring a source of lift to a region that can reinvigorate storms when combined with sufficient heating and instability.  Generally areas under the "fallout" of one of these MCS's as it weakens ends up with a greatly reduced chance of storms later in the day, while areas downstream of the "fallout zone" get the benefit of daytime heating (providing instability) and lift from the disturbance left behind by the decaying storm system upstream.

Satellite imagery at time of above radar image. Extensive cloud cover accompanies MCSs. After the MCS falls apart, the lingering cloud cover can hinder further convection later in the day.

We've seen both cases play out in the area, as well as the unmentioned case where the overnight convective system never weakens and comes through in a strong to severe state in the early morning hours.  Right now, I don't really see that happening.

So, will the overnight storms die off over AR, leaving us with an unaffected "juicy" airmass capable of generating afternoon/evening severe thunderstorms?  Or do we get the "fallout zone" - with morning clouds/showers and afternoon storms that fire off to our east?  Time will tell...  Either way, I think this will be our best chance for meaningful rain in some time.

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For weather information for Memphis and the Mid-South, where and when you need it, visit MemphisWeather.net on the web, m.memphisweather.net on your mobile phone, download our iPhone or Android apps, or visit us on Facebook or Twitter.

Parts of the Mid-South in line for severe weather this afternoon

At 11:30am, the Storm Prediction Center added parts of the Memphis metro to their Slight Risk zone for the possibility of severe weather, mainly for damaging wind and hail chances this afternoon.  An hour later, a Severe Thunderstorm Watch was issued for north and central Mississippi and southeast Arkansas.

Convective Outlook - Wednesday, May 30. Slight Risk for MEM and points southwest

Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 7pm for much of north/central MS and southeast AR

Regional radar shows an area of thunderstorms, a few of which are severe warned in southeast AR, moving east into the watch box. Some of these thunderstorms could affect the immediate metro area by mid-afternoon, though the strongest storms will affect north MS, potentially including the metro counties.

Stay with MemphisWeather.net via social media for the latest developments as we nowcast throughout the afternoon.  In addition, be sure to download the MWN mobile apps for Android and iPhone and then upgrade within the app to add StormWatch+ for personalized push notification weather alerts for your specific location. All links can be found below.

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For weather information for Memphis and the Mid-South, where and when you need it, visit MemphisWeather.net on the web, m.memphisweather.net on your mobile phone, download our iPhone or Android apps, or visit us on Facebook or Twitter.

Arrival of a strong cold front will end heat (briefly)

Memorial Day weekend was just as advertised, and as we have come to expect in the Mid-South - dominated by heat!  With temperatures in the lower to mid 90s for the holiday weekend, the only minor relief was that the humidity was not off the charts, so heat index readings didn't quite reach 100.  The heat continued today as we got within 1 degree of the record high for the date, topping out at 95.

The strong persistent high pressure responsible for the heat and lack of storms is weakening and moving east though, as a trough of low pressure replaces it.  The trough will push a strong cold front through the region on Thursday.  Ahead of the front, the Storm Prediction Center has initially placed the entire region under a Slight Risk for severe weather on Thursday (see graphic below).

For Wednesday, a few more storms may pop up than we have seen the past day or two as a weak cold front straddles the region. Dry conditions will persist one more day for most areas, even though increased cloud cover should hold high temperatures down into the lower 90s.  On Wednesday night, strong to severe thunderstorms across the central and southern Plains will move east-southeast towards the Ozarks and eventually the Mid-South.  These storms will be the fly in the ointment for Thursday as far as our severe weather chances are concerned.

Though the storms could be severe as they move across Arkansas Wednesday night, it is not unusual at all in this pattern for storms to be in a weakening state as they arrive in the metro, especially if it is near dawn, when the atmosphere is generally least conducive for severe weather.  So, while they may bring some heavy rain and a few claps of thunder, many times this scenario produces showers and extensive cloud cover.  The cloud cover then sticks around a good part of the day, outflow boundaries from the morning storms move by to the east of the area and, when afternoon and evening storms form along the cold front, they do so east of the immediate area and rob the region of not only a threat of severe weather, but some much-needed rainfall (the region stands more than a foot below normal rainfall amounts by this time of year).

Above is a graphic showing the GFS model's interpretation of the weather scenario at mid-day on Thursday. The positioning of the frontal systems and low pressure are good for possible severe weather, but if the precipitation the GFS shows well out ahead of the cold front materializes, our slight risk may be overstated.  We'll see how later model runs handle the scenario.  The best scenario for severe weather would be to have limited cloud cover in the morning with no rain and a primed atmosphere when the front comes through late in the day.

Behind the front, much cooler air will settle in for a couple of days. Friday's high will be only in the 70s with widespread 50s on Saturday morning. The cool-down will be brief, however, as strong summertime high pressure re-builds late in the weekend, bringing the mercury back up to the 90s by the start of next week!

However the severe weather scenario works out, you can count on MWN to be monitoring the situation and bringing you the latest via social media and the MWN Forecast.  If you haven't yet downloaded the MWN app for iPhone or Android devices, now is a good time to do so.  Be sure to activate StormWatch+ in the app so that you can be alerted when and if severe weather threatens your location!

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For weather information for Memphis and the Mid-South, where and when you need it, visit MemphisWeather.net on the web, m.memphisweather.net on your mobile phone, download our iPhone or Android apps, or visit us on Facebook or Twitter.

Drought worsens in the Mid-South

In addition to early season heat and air quality issues, the Mid-South is also now beginning to see the effects of a lack of rainfall so far in 2012.  For instance, the annual rainfall at Memphis International Airport so far for 2012 is 11.53", which is 11.51" (50%) below normal.

Below is the NWS-Memphis drought information statement, issued on Wednesday.  The U.S. Drought Monitor now officially lists the metro area as being in a "Moderate Drought," a far cry from May 2010 and May 2011 when precipitation was well above normal.


...DROUGHT WORSENS IN THE MID-SOUTH...

SYNOPSIS...


RAINFALL HAS BEEN SPARCE THE LAST 60 DAYS OVER THE MID-SOUTH. MOST
COUNTIES RECEIVED 50 PERCENT OR LESS OF NORMAL PRECIPITATION.
OUTSIDE OF AREAS THAT RECEIVED AN INCH OR MORE OF RAIN THIS LAST
WEEKEND, MANY OTHER PLACES ARE IN DIRE NEED OF RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 90`S THIS WEEK. THIS WILL MAKE THE
DROUGHT WORSE ALSO.

THE OUTLOOK IS LITTLE OR NO RAIN NEXT 5 DAYS AND BELOW NORMAL RAIN
THE REST OF THE MONTH.

OUTLOOK AND SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

URBAN IMPACTS...EXPECT HIGH DRYING RATES, WITH YARDS EASILY USING
UP OVER 1/4 INCH OF TOPSOIL MOISTURE DAILY. MOST ALL YARDS ARE OR
WILL BE RUNNING SHORT OF WATER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. EXTENSION SERVICES
RECOMMEND PUTTING AN INCH OR MORE ON YARDS EVERY WEEK IN THIS
SITUATION.

AGRICULTURE IMPACTS...CORN, SOYBEANS, COTTON AND SORGHUM THAT WERE
RECENTLY PLANTED ARE STRUGGLING TO GERMINATE AND EMERGE DUE TO DRY
WEATHER. MANY WHO CAN IRRIGATE ARE WELL INTO THE ROUTINE TO TAKE
CARE OF CROP NEEDS. SOME WELL ESTABLISHED CROPS ARE ALREADY SHOWING
SIGNS OF MOISTURE SHORTAGES. DRY WEATHER THE REST OF THE MONTH WILL
DAMAGE SOME ROW CROPS. PASTURE CONDITION WILL DECLINE. HOWEVER,
CONDITIONS FOR HAY AND WHEAT HARVEST SHOULD BE NEARLY ALL EXCELLENT.

FOREST IMPACTS...FIRE DANGER IS NOW MODERATE OVER PARTS OF THE
MID-SOUTH. RIGHT NOW, THE DANGER IS GRASS FIRES WHICH SPREAD INTO
FORESTS. GRASS FIRES WILL BECOME EASIER TO IGNITE.

RIVER AND STREAM IMPACTS...CURRENTLY, FLOW OF RIVERS AND CREEKS
ARE MOSTLY WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH THE FLOW CLASSIFIED AS MODERATE TO
SEVERE HYDROLOGIC DROUGHT.

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...ANOTHER DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT WILL BE
ISSUED MAY 31 UNLESS UNEXPECTED WEATHER CHANGES WARRANT AN EARLIER
DROUGHT UPDATE.

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For weather information for Memphis and the Mid-South, where and when you need it, visit MemphisWeather.net on the web, m.memphisweather.net on your mobile phone, download our iPhone or Android apps, or visit us on Facebook or Twitter.

Summer arrives just in time for Memorial Day weekend

Mid-Southerners have gotten a treat over the last couple days when it comes to the weather, thanks to some cooler temperatures and lower humidity, making for some very enjoyable afternoons and evenings. However, as you might expect as we head towards Memorial Day weekend, this pleasant weather will soon be over. Get the sunscreen and swimming pool gear out because the heat takes over in the coming days with record temperatures looking increasingly likely by this weekend.

The heat begins to build on Thursday as highs return to the 90 degree mark, though humidity values will remain somewhat low keeping outdoor conditions from becoming too uncomfortable. That begins to change on Friday and especially over the weekend as highs reach the middle 90s and increasing humidity sends heat index values near the century mark for the first time in 2012. These temperatures will put high temperature records in jeopardy for at least Saturday and Sunday, and possibly Monday (Memorial Day) as well. Low temperatures will also be near record warm levels, as numbers only bottom out in the mid-70s, especially in the Memphis “heat island.”

So what will cause this stretch of heat? A building high pressure ridge at the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere will set up directly over the region, creating a “dome” of heat that will cover much of the Southeast U.S., but especially the Mid-South. This high pressure ridge will block any rainfall or significant cloud cover from developing, allowing the heat to continually build through the weekend.  A high pressure ridge of this strength normally isn’t a factor in our weather until the middle of summer, thus the near-record temperatures we are expecting.

As depicted by the GFS model - the high pressure "heat dome" will park itself over the Mid-South for the weekend.
Active weather will be hundreds of miles away.

In addition to the heat, the stagnant pattern the high pressure ridge will produce may also create poor air quality issues. As winds remain light this weekend, the atmosphere will not be able to “mix out” various pollutants that build up through the day. As a result, more “Code Orange” days will be possible, particularly on Saturday, Sunday, and Memorial Day. That may make prolonged outdoor activities in the afternoons and early evenings unhealthy, especially for those with respiratory diseases like asthma.

Fortunately, there is some hope for relief in the foreseeable future. It appears the high pressure ridge will begin to break down late on Memorial Day but especially Tuesday into Wednesday as a new storm system and associated cold front begin to approach from the west (see graphic below). This should allow for increasing clouds, some rain chances, and slightly cooler temperatures to filter back into the area for the middle of next week.

NWS surface weather forecast for next Tuesday

With hot weather arriving just in time for Memorial Day weekend, and many of you likely planning outdoor events, be sure to plan appropriately for this early bout of summer heat. You can find a few heat-related safety tips in this MWN Blog post.This is particularly true given the possibility of poor air quality. You can learn more about poor air quality and it's effects on sensitive groups, as well as find additional links in this previous MWN Blog post.  MemphisWeather.Net will keep you updated over the next several days, including passing along any air quality alerts that are issued.

--Kevin Terry, MemphisWeather.Net

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For weather information for Memphis and the Mid-South, where and when you need it, visit MemphisWeather.net on the web, m.memphisweather.net on your mobile phone, download our iPhone or Android apps, or visit us on Facebook or Twitter.

Views of the annular solar eclipse - May 20, 2012

Last night (Sunday, May 20), many parts of the U.S. were treated to an annular solar eclipse, or part of it (known as a partial eclipse).  We pulled a few images of the eclipse from a variety of sources and placed them below. 

Slooh (events.slooh.com) maintained a live video feed throughout the event from a couple of western U.S. locations where the annular eclipse would be best viewed. A couple of screenshots of their feeds are shown below.

The above was taken as Slooh's site in California experienced the "ring of fire," in which a ring of the sun is apparent around the moon.

The second shot was taken in New Mexico.  Note the orange ring of the sun surrounding the black disk that is the moon.

Locally, a partial eclipse was photographed from the Mississippi River bluffs. Photo credit: Austen Onek

The TX panhandle was the prime viewing spot for the eclipse as the sun set during the annular phase. Photo credit: Greg Jackson (NWS Midland, TX).

The next major solar eclipse event is a total eclipse which will occur across a wide swath of the U.S. in 2017.  Expect a lot of press and hoopla leading up to this event as a total eclipse visible in the U.S. is rare!  For more on this particular event, check out our recent blog post leading up to the eclipse.

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For weather information for Memphis and the Mid-South, where and when you need it, visit MemphisWeather.net on the web, m.memphisweather.net on your mobile phone, download our iPhone or Android apps, or visit us on Facebook or Twitter.

Solar eclipse to be viewable by Mid-Southerners on Sunday

On Sunday, May 20, an annular eclipse of the Sun will be visible within a narrow corridor along Earth's northern Hemisphere, beginning in eastern Asia, crossing the North Pacific Ocean, and ending in the western United States.  However, much of North America, including the Memphis metro, will be able to view a partial solar eclipse just before, and as, the sun sets for the evening.  This eclipse marks the first annular eclipse visible in North America since May 1994.  The last total solar eclipse visible in the contiguous 48 states was in 1979.  The next is a highly anticipated event in 2017.

Red area indicates where the annular eclipse can be viewed.  Credit: NASA GSFC

The specific for Memphis:
 - Partial eclipse begins: 7:28pm
 - Partial eclipse ends: 8:00pm (sunset)
 - Degree of obscuration: 33% (1/3 of the sun will be eclipsed)

A picture of an annular solar eclipse taken from space by the joint Japanese-American Hinode satellite on Jan. 4, 2011.
Photo credit: Hinode/XRT.

A solar eclipse occurs when the new moon passes between Earth and the sun, blocking out a portion of the sun from viewing.  A total eclipse is when the sun is completely blocked by the moon. An annular eclipse, like this one, is when the moon passes directly in front of the Sun, but does not completely obscure it, creating a "ring of fire."  The annular eclipse will only be viewable along a relatively narrow path described above. Those around that path will be treated to a partial eclipse, in which a "bite" appears to be taken out of the sun.

Partial solar eclipse

We remind you that you should NEVER look directly at the sun, even during an eclipse, as you risk serious and permanent eye damage or blindness.  There are several suggestions for viewing an eclipse on the Exploratorium website.  These include putting a pinhole in one piece of cardboard, then projecting the light through the pinhole onto another sheet of white cardboard.  Or, you can also try looking at the ground underneath a leafy tree.  The  gaps between the leaves will shine on the ground in the shape of the sun!

Remember that the event will occur just before sunset, so viewing may be difficult.  Just remember NOT to look directly at the sun!  There will be plenty of cool pictures on the internet late Sunday evening and Monday for you to check out!  In the meantime, we'll cross our fingers that sky conditions will permit optimal viewing.  Overcast conditions are currently not expected, though a partly cloudy sky is.

A video by NASA explains this impressive event in more detail.
Complete detail on this eclipse, also by NASA, can be found here.
Here is a map of the western USA showing where the annular eclipse will be seen completely.

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For weather information for Memphis and the Mid-South, where and when you need it, visit MemphisWeather.net on the web, m.memphisweather.net on your mobile phone, download our iPhone or Android apps, or visit us on Facebook or Twitter.

Mother's Day weekend forecast - not exactly what momma deserves!

Lots of activities going on this weekend, even though Memphis in May has no major outdoor festivities planned.  There still is Greek Fest and, of course, Mother's Day.  We all know our mothers deserve the very best because without them, we wouldn't be here!  Unfortunately, the weather is not going to be all that cooperative, so pick a restaurant that doesn't make it's "wait list" stand outside!  The only potential good news out of the weather pattern is that it won't be hot and it won't be severe!

Telltale clouds moved overhead today, indicating an approaching weather system.  These clouds are ahead of a weak surface low that will move from the western Gulf Coast to the southeastern U.S. by Sunday.  It is accompanied by an upper level low that will also affect the area.  Precipitation amounts this weekend won't be off-the-charts, but everyone should get a beneficial rain in the 24 hours between mid-day Saturday and mid-day Sunday.  Average amounts should be somewhere in the 1" range during that time frame.

Low pressure over TX is sending clouds across the Mid-South today. The low will be responsible for rain chances this weekend.

As for exact timing, a few of the computer models finally started coming into agreement today and it appears that, while a few showers are possible as early as Saturday morning, the bulk of the rain will hold off until late morning, though it will remain showery and intermittent through afternoon. By evening, the main "slug" of moisture will move over and steady rain is likely Saturday night. By Mother's Day morning, steady moderate rain should be tapering off, though we expect to see light showers stick around much of the day as the upper low moves near.  All rain should be done by Sunday evening, leading into a dry work week with moderating temperatures. Very little thunder is expected with this system as it moves by to our south, keeping the instability and deeper moisture suppressed towards the Gulf Coast.  Flooding is also not expected to be an issue with only 1" or so of rain spread over a 24-hour period.

GFS model precip amounts through Sunday evening. Memphis is the black dot near center. MWN forecasts ~1" of rain this weekend for the metro.

Highs this weekend will be mainly in the mid 70s owing to the showers and cloud cover.  Overnight lows will be mild - near 60 or slightly higher. Next week, we'll see highs rise from near 80 early in the week to perhaps the upper 80s by week's end.  For the complete forecast, visit the MWN Forecast page on MemphisWeather.net.

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For weather information for Memphis and the Mid-South, where and when you need it, visit MemphisWeather.net on the web, m.memphisweather.net on your mobile phone, download our iPhone or Android apps, or visit us on Facebook or Twitter.

Monday front brings t’storm chances, then a pattern change!

Summer has seemingly arrived early to the Mid-South this past week, as temperatures reach the 90 degree mark and that classic Memphis humidity makes its first of many appearances in the months to come. Fortunately, summer’s early arrival looks to be short-lived, as a potent May cold front will make its way to the Mid-South on Monday.  The front will be accompanied by showers and possibly strong thunderstorms, but then a significant pattern change is in the offing for much of the upcoming week.

A few showers may approach the metro area toward dawn Monday, but rain chances will increase significantly as daytime heating increases and the front pushes east through Arkansas, approaching the Mississippi River during the evening hours. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected, possibly in a couple of separate rounds between Monday morning and evening.

NAM forecast model for late Monday afternoon.

With strong instability and some modest wind energy along the front, the potential does exist for a few thunderstorms on Monday to be strong to severe. The Storm Prediction Center has placed the entire region in a “Slight Risk” for this threat (see graphic below). The main hazard is strong, possibly damaging straight-line winds, with a secondary threat of hail. The tornado threat is very low. Thunderstorms may also produce torrential downpours, which will hopefully bring some much needed rainfall to the area, without significant severe weather.

Storm Prediction Center severe weather outlook for Monday.

The cold front will be slow to clear the region, but should do so Tuesday morning, taking any lingering showers with it. Behind the front, get ready for a stretch of outstanding weather that may last right through next weekend! High temperatures will hold near or below 80 for several days, with numbers falling into the 50s overnight. Additionally, humidity levels will fall back into a very comfortable range!

Stay with MemphisWeather.Net for the latest on Monday's thunderstorm chances. As needed, we'll be nowcasting during the day via our social media feeds (see links at the bottom of this post). Also, don't forget our StormWatch+ service that will immediately notify you on your smartphone to any severe weather alerts issued. For more, visit StormWatchPlus.com.

--Kevin Terry, MemphisWeather.Net

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For weather information for Memphis and the Mid-South, where and when you need it, visit MemphisWeather.net on the web, m.memphisweather.net on your mobile phone, download our iPhone or Android apps, or visit us on Facebook or Twitter.

April 2012 Climate Data and MWN Forecast Accuracy

Following the 7th warmest meteorological winter (December-February) on record and the warmest March on record, April continued the well-above-normal temperature trend, though it was not warm enough to reach the "Top 10" Aprils temperature-wise. However, a "bottom 10" was recorded as rainfall was hard to come by in one of the typically wetter months of the year.  With just over an inch of rain at Memphis International for the month, this month became the second driest in recorded history.  The lack of rain is a far cry from the past two years when record flooding was found regionally heading into early May!

Memphis International Airport, Memphis, TN
The average temperature for the month of April was 66.0 degrees, 3.1 degrees above normal. The average high temperature was 76.5 degrees and the average low was 55.5. The coolest temperature of the month was 43 degrees on the 12th and 22nd, while the highest temperature was 86 degrees reached on the 28th and 30th.  There were 11 days in which the high reached 80 degrees or higher and 8 days in which the average daily temperature was 10 degrees or more above normal.

Precipitation for the month totaled 1.04", which was 4.46" below average.  There were only 6 calendar days with measurable rainfall, none of which had more than 0.35". The maximum 24-hour amount was 0.40" on the 15-16th. The peak wind gust was 41 mph (from the south) on the 15th with an average wind speed for the month of 8.5 mph. Click here for a daily statistical recap for Memphis International Airport.

Cirrus Weather Solutions, Bartlett, TN
The average April temperature at Cirrus Weather Solutions in north Bartlett was 65.4 degrees with a maximum of 88.8 degrees on the 1st and a minimum of 34.9 degrees on the 12th.  April precipitation totaled 1.44" in the automated gauge. A co-located manual gauge used for the CoCoRaHS program measured 1.47".  The peak wind gust was 26 mph on the 15th. Average relative humidity was 63%. Click here for a daily recap on MemphisWeather.net.

MWN Forecast Accuracy
For the month of April, the average temperature error in all MWN temperature forecasts was 2.11 degrees. Over 57% of the MWN temperature forecasts for the month were within 2 degrees of the actual temperature. MWN's forecasts extend out five periods (or 2.5 days). For dewpoint accuracy, the MWN forecast averaged 2.49 degrees of error and fell within 2 degrees of the actual dewpoint nearly 62% of the time. Historical accuracy statistics can be found here.

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For weather information for Memphis and the Mid-South, where and when you need it, visit MemphisWeather.net on the web, m.memphisweather.net on your mobile phone, download our iPhone or Android apps, or visit us on Facebook or Twitter.