Early Friday front will bring storm chances, then fall-like weekend weather!

The Mid-South was back in the heat this afternoon as temperatures soared to near the 100-degree mark. Fortunately, low humidity levels still in place following this past Sunday’s cold front helped to prevent conditions from becoming too oppressive. Now, a new cold front is on the approach from the northwest. Its arrival early Friday will bring about another chance of scattered thunderstorms, and then behind it the strongest push of cooler air the Mid-South has seen the entire summer!

Clouds and humidity levels will be on the increase tonight and there may be a few showers as early as Thursday morning. However, better chances for rain and thunderstorms will hold off until the afternoon and early evening hours as the front moves towards the region and daytime heating increases instability levels. Similar to this past Sunday, not all of the metro is likely to receive rain. Instead, scattered activity is expected to be found on radar. Because of the expected high instability, some thunderstorms which develop would have the potential to become strong to severe, with damaging wind gusts the primary threat, and hail a lesser threat. The Storm Prediction Center has outlined the entire metro area in a “Slight Risk” for severe weather Thursday.

NAM forecast model for Thursday afternoon

Storm Prediction Center severe weather outlook for Thursday. The metro is included in a "Slight Risk" area.

The front will pass through the region during the early morning hours Friday, taking any leftover rain out of the region by Friday morning, and what follows will be a truly refreshing change in our weather pattern! Not only will humidity levels drop significantly, but temperatures will take a tumble as well. Saturday looks to be an incredible start to your weekend as highs struggle to reach the middle 80s under crystal clear, sunny skies. Cool overnights are also expected over the weekend, with mid 60s in the immediate Memphis area and even a few upper 50s possible in the coolest outlying areas! Temperatures will begin to rebound at the start of next week but humidity levels will likely stay reduced for several days.

MemphisWeather.Net will keep you updated on our social media feeds (see links below) of any threat of thunderstorms and severe weather Thursday with extended nowcasting as necessary.  Be sure to download the MemphisWeather.net apps for Android and iPhone to keep you updated with the latest information on possible severe weather.  StormWatch+, our severe weather notification system for your smartphone, is available within the MWN app, and now as a standalone app!

--Kevin Terry, MemphisWeather.Net

P.S. As a brief note, this is Kevin's final scheduled blog post for MWN. Kevin leaves for Mississippi State University grad school in Meteorology next week.  MWN is tremendously fortunate to have had him on board for the past year and I wish him nothing but the best in his future endeavors!! Please drop your well wishes to Kevin in the comments below. --Erik

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