This Week in Mid-South Weather - October 22-28, 2012

Currently the metro is under the influence of a large area of high pressure centered over the southeast U.S.  The area of high pressure will not move much between now and Thursday meaning a continuation of above average temperatures for the metro. Highs each day will be in the low 80s with morning lows in the lower 60s. The high pressure is also blocking any storm systems from entering our area with sunny to partly cloudy skies for the next several days.

High pressure dominates the SE U.S. for a few days as this surface map valid Wednesday shows.

By Friday, the area of high pressure will move off the east coast allowing a cold front to move towards the metro. How long the front affects the area remains to be seen as a tropical system off the eastern seaboard could determine the speed of the front.  Tropical Depression 18 formed this morning over the southern Caribbean Sea, south of Jamaica, but by late in the week will be moving into the Bahamas, possibly as a strong system named Sandy.

If Sandy decides to move close to the U.S. coastline, the front will slow and could take longer to move through.  If Sandy stays out to sea, the front should progress more quickly.  Currently, the latter possibility seems more plausible and this is what computer models are predicting.  Thus, the front will bring rain chances back to the metro Friday and possibly early Saturday. No severe weather is expected with this system at this time. As the weekend draws closer, we will have a better idea of the specifics and will fine-tune the forecast.

By Friday morning, a cold front approaches while Sandy moves through the Bahamas

The cold front should exit the area sometime Saturday leaving behind clearing skies and a drastic pattern chance.  The metro will experience much cooler temperatures starting Sunday with high temperatures only reaching the mid 60s and temperatures in the 40s expected for lows.

Forecast model temps Sunday morning behind the front

At this time, an extended look towards Halloween shows dry weather and cool temps with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s, though this is still beyond the range of our extended forecast and will be discussed further in later outlooks.

Find the complete MWN Forecast at MemphisWeather.net or on MWN Mobile.

--Patrick Luckett, MWN Intern

--Erik Proseus, MWN Meteorologist

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