Spring returns following the departure of a cold upper low

With Beale Street Music Festival over we can look back and reflect on the rain that inevitably occurred during the festivities. Although Music Fest is not always rainy, it certainly feels as if it is and this past weekend certainly did not help that image. In addition to plenty of rain, it was unseasonably cold. Record breaking cold even, as record lows were set Friday (37) and again Saturday (36). The low of 36 also set the record for the coldest temperature ever recorded in May, breaking the previous record of 38 set on May 7, 1944. All of this activity was associated with a potent upper-level low pressure system that moved very slowly through the region. The strength of this system was certainly uncommon for this time of year, and it helped to bring the record breaking weather to the region.

The upper-level low that was responsible for record cold and lots of rain is now over NC

Outlook

With the departure of the aforementioned upper-level low, temperatures have warmed up quite a bit - into the 70's today - and highs are expected in the 80's the rest of the work week. Nights are also expected to be fairly mild with lows in the 60's. However, Thursday night into Friday, chances for rain and thunderstorms return with even a small possibility of severe storms on Friday that we will be monitoring. This rain is associated with an upper-level disturbance plowing its way south out of Canada. The majority of the rain is expected to occur Friday, with smaller chances from the departing system on Saturday. Spring-like weather returns Sunday and continues into next week, with highs in the 70's and lows in the 50's under mostly sunny skies. This spring-like weather is primarily due to an associated surface cold front accompanying the upper-level disturbance, which will shift winds to the north and allow cooler, drier air into the region. May sunshine will keep temps from getting too ridiculous though! No more 30s until late fall!

Temps and wind for the next 7 days (GFS model) - wind shifts to southerly tomorrow, then back to northerly on Saturday as temps cool. Early next week, they shift back to south and temps warm back up.

William Churchill
MWN Nowcaster/Intern

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