More clouds than sun this week, plus our next chance of rain

Synopsis

Another Monday, another deck of stratus across the Mid-South. There seems to have been a lot of these overcast mornings lately, accompanied today by patchy fog and light showers. This low-level moisture looks to slowly decrease from top to bottom but will likely linger in the lowest levels through tonight. This will keep today's temperatures down in the mid 70's. Average temperatures (lower 80s) look to return tomorrow and will likely continue until the weekend. Chances of precipitation are possible, mainly Wednesday, before our a larger change in weather arrives this weekend. We'll focus on the work week forecast in today's blog.

Analysis

Visible Satellite imagery valid at 1432 UTC (9:32 AM)

Visible satellite imagery from this morning showed a large area of stratus across the Mid-South. Dry air is already beginning to stream in from the northwest in the mid-levels but clouds look to remain overcast in the lower levels through this evening.

NAM Sounding valid at 00 UTC 10/01 (7 PM tonight)

This modeled vertical profile of the atmosphere for this evening shows a layer of clouds still present at the lower levels, where the red and green lines meet (temperature and moisture values, respectively). You can see the dry air I was talking about in the mid levels because the green line is far to the left, indicating dry air through that large column of the atmosphere. This cloud cover will keep temperatures in the mid 70's today. However, the low level clouds should be eroded much easier tomorrow allowing for a decent amount of sunshine and above average temperatures. This sunshine may allow for some rain chances starting tomorrow due to destabilization of the atmosphere. However, best the best chance for rain this week still looks to be Wednesday.

NAM Composite Reflectivity valid at 00 UTC 10/03 (Wednesday at 7 PM)

This weather model image, valid Wednesday evening, simply shows a prediction of what the radar will look like at a given time. This indicates rain in the area which I think will be likely for much of the day Wednesday. This rain is due to an upper-level low pressure system that is providing energy for uplift. With ample moisture present during this time frame expect scattered showers and possibly some thunderstorms. This feature is expected to diminish by Thursday keeping things mostly dry until our next major system comes through this weekend. There will be more on that in the blog later this week, in the meantime you can check out my work week forecast below.

William's Memphis Forecast

Monday
Cloudy with a high of 75, low of 66. Slight chance of showers for remainder of the morning.

Tuesday
Partly sunny with a high of 84, low of 69. 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Wednesday
Cloudy with a high of 79, low of 70. 60% chance of showers and thunderstorms. Precipitation totals of about a quarter of an inch.

Thursday
Mostly cloudy with a high of 83, low of 72. 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms.

--William Churchill (MWN Social Media Intern)

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Warm & Dry Start to Weekend; Chances of Precip Arrive Sunday

Synopsis

Weather will be quite similar to the previous couple of days to start the weekend. We are sitting under a ridge of high pressure between two troughs of low pressure, the resulting weather is warm, fairly humid and overall dry. This will start to change a bit Sunday when enough upper-level energy and uplift will reach the area resulting in chances of rain. These chances of rain will continue into next week which will be discussed in the blog Monday morning.

Analysis

GFS 500 mb (18,000') vorticity at 00Z Friday (7 PM Thursday)

12 hr forecast from the GFS weather model shows the ridge present over our area with troughs of low pressure to the east and west as labeled in the image. The trough to our west is expected to slowly move into our region going into next week, but in the meantime weather will be uneventful.

GFS 700 mb (10,000') relative humidity at 12Z Sunday (7 AM Sunday)

By Sunday morning models are in fair agreement with the arrival of a band of moisture associated with warm air streaming in from the southwest. This will bring with it cloudiness and chances of precipitation from the morning to afternoon hours of Sunday. Following Sunday, the weather pattern is a bit uncertain... so expect a new blog on next week's weather Monday morning!

William's Memphis Forecast

Friday
A few clouds with a high of 86, low of 68.

Saturday
A few clouds during the day with clouds moving in overnight. High of 86, low of 69.

Sunday
Cloudy with a 50% chance of rain. High of 84, low of 68.

-- William Churchill (MWN Social Media Intern)

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Rain Chances Tomorrow Followed by Warmer Weather

Synopsis

It was a bit chilly this morning with temperatures dipping into the 50's with plenty of dry air in the region. This is all due to the long-wave trough that made its way through the region a few days ago. The main feature to focus on in the upcoming forecast is a short-wave trough which could bring some rain chances heading into tomorrow.

Analysis

Visible Satellite Image at 10:15 AM. Shows what the atmosphere looks like from space.

Visible satellite image from this morning (10:15 AM) shows cloudiness associated with the aforementioned short-wave trough [EP: Basically, an upper-level low pressure system over a somewhat small area...] over the Midwest. This feature will make its way into the area overnight, bringing us scattered showers. The question is how much this short-wave trough can dig, which influences how far south it goes.

NAM 500 mb (18,000') vorticity at 15Z Tuesday (10 AM Tuesday)

Weather modeled mid-level vorticity for tomorrow morning (10 AM) shows this trough digging far enough south to bring us some scattered showers. The farther south it digs, the larger the potential coverage and intensity of rain. The colors in this map show vorticity; when this energy is moving into the area in the upper-atmosphere you can expect rising motion.

NAM 850 mb (5,000') temperatures and winds at 15Z Tuesday (10 AM Tuesday)

Rising motion can also occur when warm air is advecting or moving into an area. This lower-level map from the same model shows warm air advection at that same time (10 AM). This gives further indication of rising motion and thus rain potential. However, we need to see if other requirements for thunderstorm development are present at this same time.

NAM sounding for Memphis, TN. Vertical profile of atmosphere at 15Z Tuesday (10 AM Tuesday)

Other ingredients needed for thunderstorm formation vary. The above map shows a vertical profile of the atmosphere which can be extremely useful for diagnosing the condition of the atmosphere. This particular image is again a modeled image for the same time period (10 AM). This image reveals the biggest problem which is lack of moisture in the mid-levels of the atmosphere. You want the green line (dew point) to be as close to the red line (temperature) as possible to get clouds and rain. That same level in the atmosphere also has a small cap, or increase in temperatures with height. This feature prevents air from rising past it but can easily be eroded with enough heating.

Beyond tomorrow we can expect winds shifting to the south, bringing warmer temperatures and slowly rising humidity headed toward the weekend.

Conclusion

Chances for rain and thunderstorms are marginal given all of the atmospheric parameters. The short-wave trough and warm air advection promote rising motion but lack of mid-level moisture and weak temperature inversion will prevent widespread activity. Depending on how far south the trough can dig and how long it takes to move into the area will determine the extent of the strength and coverage of storms. If it digs farther south than this model anticipates then more upper-level energy will be present. More importantly the trough will slow down which will allow for more instability due to morning surface heating. Of course a later arrival would also push back precipitation a few hours toward the late morning to early afternoon.

William's Memphis Forecast
Monday
A few clouds with a high of 84, low of 65.

Tuesday
Scattered showers (mainly in the morning) with a high of 83, low of 67. 40% chance of rain.

Wednesday
A few clouds with a high of 87, low of 68.

Thursday
A few clouds with a high of 89, low of 70.

--William Churchill, MWN Social Media Intern
[Comments by MWN Meteorologist Erik Proseus noted and italicized]
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Wet Weather to Start the Weekend, Beautiful Weather to End It!

[EP: Though this discussion is a little more technical than our typical blog, it does highlight the different atmospheric processes that will promote rain and thunderstorms Friday and Friday night. William is obviously getting a good grasp of the atmosphere in his meteorology classes! For the official MWN Forecast, click here.]

Synopsis

A unique set up with tropical moisture to our south and a digging trough to our north will provide interesting weather heading into the weekend. However, this weather will be short-lived, bringing beautiful fall conditions to wrap up the weekend.

Analysis

Below we will review what one of the weather models (NAM) is showing to see why rain looks so likely tomorrow into Saturday morning.

NAM 200 mb (38,000') winds at 03Z Saturday (10pm Friday)

In the highest parts of the troposphere we see a jet streak positioned over the region. In this particular image, valid for 10 PM Friday night, we see Memphis in the right-rear quadrant of the jet-streak. This is an area we look for to provide rising motion through the atmosphere indicative of showers and thunderstorms.

NAM 500 mb (18,000') vorticity at 00Z Saturday (7pm Friday)

Traversing down in the atmosphere we find areas of positive vorticity advection in the Mid-South around 7 PM Friday. This is another great dynamic ingredient of rising motion, further supporting rainfall during this time frame.

NAM 850 mb (5,000') temperatures and winds at 00Z Saturday (7pm Friday)

Warm air advection in the lower levels of the atmosphere is one of the last things we look for to identify areas of rising air, and it just so happens on this particular weather model the best chance at a bit of that is right around the same time frame.

NAM Composite Reflectivity (dBZ) at 00Z Saturday (7pm Friday) 

Then it is not much of a surprise that the simulated radar image of that same time, 7 PM Friday evening, shows the heaviest precipitation over the Memphis area.

This analysis of one of the models is not an exact forecast of what is going to happen, but it does give you an idea of the processes that are occurring to suggest the rainfall that we're expected to receive. Other weather models are similar in their presentation and the hardest part is going to be nailing amounts and exact timing of precipitation.

Summary

Widespread precipitation looks quite possible as early as tomorrow morning, but the best dynamics look to be moving through late tomorrow afternoon and well into the evening. Mid-level moisture will spread over the region with upper-level energy providing most of the uplift for showers and thunderstorms. Clearing looks possible mid-day Saturday with things shaping up for a beautiful fall weekend.

William's Memphis Forecast

Friday: Overcast with a high of 82, low of 65. Near 100% chance of rain. Precipitation amounts of about an inch.

Saturday: Decreasing clouds with a high of 79, low of 58.

Sunday: Sunny skies with a high of 83, low of 60.

--William Churchill (MWN Social Media Intern)

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Above normal temps & a mostly cloudy work week

Synopsis

Surface analysis this morning shows a weak cold front extending through the metro pushing south. It is hard to call this boundary a cold front due to the fact that it is not bringing cold air with it at all. The main effect this boundary will have on the metro will be the increase of clouds and moisture as winds will swing around to east and then south bringing a slow rise of humidity values each day.

Analysis

This weeks weather pattern is not terribly exciting with a weak ridge of high pressure building over the area and moisture/clouds being wrapped in clockwise around this high pressure for much of the week.

NAM modeled mid-level (10,000') moisture for Tuesday at 7 PM.

As a result expecting slowly increasing humidity and slightly above average temperatures (near 90). Also cannot rule out some isolated showers or thunderstorms, mainly Wednesday and Thursday in advance of our next cold front heading into the weekend.

GFS modeled low-level (5000') temperatures and wind speed/direction Thursday at 7 PM.

By Thursday evening the high pressure has shifted well east of the area as the warm-sector builds with the approaching mid-latitude cyclone to our north. The pattern heading into this weekend will be much more interesting and something to keep an eye on with plenty of chances of rain.

[EP: A cold front will pass through the metro Friday or Saturday, bringing unsettled weather, followed by clearing and cooler temps on Sunday. William will have more detail on that later this week.]

William's Memphis Forecast

Monday: Increasing clouds with a high of 91, low of 69.

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with a high of 89, low of 70.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with a high of 92, low of 71. Slight chance of shower/t'storm.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy with high of 91, low of 72. Slight chance of shower/t'storm.

--William Churchill, MWN Social Media Intern

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Pleasant weekend ahead with fall-like weather!

Synopsis

Another hot and muggy day across the Mid-South with thunderstorms dotting the area. Currently a cold front situated to our north will make its way south through the area tonight, bringing with it a major change in our weather. Above average temperatures for this time of year will quickly change to below average temperatures as fall-like weather overtakes the region.

Analysis

Surface Analysis as of 10am Thursday

A look at the national picture shows the aforementioned cold front extending from the northeastern US to the Arkansas/Missouri border.

Visible Satellite at 2pm CDT Thursday

This feature is also quite apparent on visible satellite imagery with scattered thunderstorms across areas south of the cold front.

Sept 12, 12Z (7am CDT) GFS modeled 500 mb Relative Vorticity 

This upper-level (18,000') map shows the longwave trough of low-pressure responsible for the cold front moving through the area Friday morning. There is not much energy that would support lifting available during the cold front passage. This in combination with little convection due to it being the morning hours suggests little to no precipitation associated with the passage of the cold front.

Sept 12 12Z (7am) GFS  modeled 850 mb (5,000') Temperatures

Looking at lower levels of the atmosphere (5,000') mid-day Friday, we see significant cold air advection. Basically this map is showing us much colder air to our north being blown into the Mid-South, resulting in much cooler, drier conditions. This particular model is even overdoing the temperatures by quite a bit, predicting temperatures to drop to 50 degrees or even lower tomorrow night. This is because the models do not really distinguish the seasons very well without inputting climatological records. Once these records are put into the model we get much more appropriate temperatures in return which we then interpret accordingly.

Wiliam's Memphis Forecast

Friday: Some morning clouds clearing by noon with a high of 81, low of 57.

Saturday: Sunny with a high of 79, low of 58.

Sunday: Sunny with a high of 86, low of 60.

--William Churchill, MWN Social Media Intern

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Precip chances this afternoon? Let's see what the high-res models says...

[EP: Today, MWN intern William looks at the potential for precip around the metro this afternoon using the HRRR model and a well-conceptualized and written discussion.]

Gonna give short term forecasting a shot this morning with the possibility of storms this afternoon using the 11Z HRRR as my primary analysis tool. Lets start off with current data.

Visible satellite imagery at 1345 UTC. This image shows you what clouds would look like from space.

Visible satellite imagery shows a mid-level deck of stratus clouds across the area around 9 AM. Lets take a look at the 3 hour forecast of the HRRR to see how it did on predicting this deck of clouds.

Total cloud cover in percentage at 1400 UTC.

The HRRR did not do a very good job considering it was only forecasting out 3 hours. It picked up on some possible cloud cover in the area but really didn't nail it. This is the first thing I noticed when considering t'storms this afternoon because if clouds stick around long enough there may not be enough instability to get some t'storms going like the HRRR is predicting. However, temps are already in the 80s and I'm not expecting these clouds to stick around long. Now lets see what the HRRR is showing in terms of upward motion.

Vertical Velocities at 1900 UTC.

This map is of vertical velocities at a level where we expect cloud formation. This map indicates positive vertical velocities in the area by 2 PM, a good indication of cloud and possible shower development.

Most Unstable CAPE at 1800 UTC.

This map shows CAPE values which are a measure of available potential energy for t'storm development. At about 1 PM this indicates 2000+ J/kg of potential energy, these are pretty good values if you can get storms initiated.

Previous hour total precipitation at 1900 UTC.

This map shows precipitation from 1-2 PM just northeast of Memphis. Outflow boundaries from these storms moving into Shelby County around 2 PM should initiate more storms in the Memphis area.

To sum everything up, I've used a short term model to try to predict timing of t'storms this afternoon. The HRRR indicates a good chance of t'storms but it was also not very accurate in predicting a deck of clouds just a few hours after initializing. However, I think there's still a good chance of at least some isolated t'storms this afternoon between 12-4 PM and will have to watch to see how things unfold.

--William Churchill, MWN Social Media Intern

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Ridge of High Pressure Overhead; Hot Week Ahead

Synopsis

Clouds are hanging around this morning due to weak warm air advection above the surface. [EP: an outflow from earlier thunderstorms east of the area  has sparked scattered showers in the metro late this morning, which should wane by early afternoon]. Temperatures have been above average for September [EP: the hottest day of the summer of 2013 occurred yesterday, at 98 degrees!] and are expected to remain so this week. Find out why below, followed by my forecast for the Memphis metro.

Analysis

12Z NAM initialized sounding for Memphis, TN. Vertical profile of atmosphere.

Pictured above is an estimate of the vertical profile of the atmosphere at 7 AM in Memphis. The weather model is able to plot this image by processing and interpolating real vertical profiles (mapped by weather balloon launches) from nearby locations such as Little Rock, AR and Jackson, MS. This profile can tell you a whole lot about what is going on within the atmosphere and is one of our main tools as meteorologists. An interesting occurrence that I wanted to point out were the winds, indicated on the far right, at various levels in the atmosphere. They are basically non-existent. There is very little wind to speak of all the way up to the tropopause which is a perfect illustration of the position of the high pressure ridge directly over the Mid-South. Additionally it shows the layer of clouds I mentioned earlier. [EP: I realize this gets a little technical, but hey, the intern is obviously learning something in his Weather & Forecasting class!]

NAM temperature forecast valid Thu morning for the 850 mb (5000') level.
Also shows heights and wind direction/speed, useful for identifying fronts.

The ridge of high pressure is expected to stick around most of the week, with one weather model showing it still directly overhead Thursday morning. This will continue to keep things hot for us while a cold front could be making its way through portions of the Midwest later this week. We should eventually get to experience whats left of the cold front and will hopefully be the topic of the blog later this week. [EP: Go ahead & plan on a much more comfortable fall-ish weekend...]

William's Memphis Forecast

Tuesday: Partly cloudy with a high of 96, low of 76.

Wednesday: Partly cloudy with a high of 95, low of 75.

Thursday: Partly cloudy with a high of 94, low of 75. Slight chance of t'storms.

--William Churchill, MWN Social Media Intern
[Comments by MWN Meteorologist Erik Proseus noted and italicized]

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Summer Won't Leave, Above Average Temps Return

Synopsis

A weak frontal boundary stalled over the Mid-South has kept some clouds over us this morning with bearable temperatures and relatively low humidity. That looks to change as a ridge of high pressure dominates with above average temperatures returning over the weekend. 

Analysis

Visible satellite imagery at 9:15am CDT showing a band of clouds across the Mid-South along a weak front.

Visible satellite imagery shows a band of clouds across the region associated with a weak frontal boundary. These clouds won't linger too much longer today as the sun works to break them up. This boundary will dissipate and not have much of an effect on our weather. The story for this weekend is above average temperatures, despite the fact that meteorological fall has just begun. [EP: Meteorological fall, unlike "real fall" begins Sep 1 and lasts through Nov. It's mainly designed this way for simplicity of climatological record-keeping.] Along with hotter temperatures, expect humidity to also slowly be on the rise becoming uncomfortable by the start of the work week.

A large ridge of high pressure at 500mb (18,000') covers much of the "flyover" portion of the country. This will keep temps above normal as long as it sticks around.

This is all due to a strong ridge of high pressure to our west which will slowly shift closer to us towards the beginning of next week. Expect partly cloudy skies Sunday and Monday with MOS guidance a little too high on temperatures. [EP: MOS is numerical data we weather geeks look at in making our forecast. Definitely a nerd-apalooza for those who had to bear calculus and physics in college. The reference here indicates that the data appears to show temperatures warmer than William thinks they will actually be. He's probably right.]

William's Memphis Forecast: 

Saturday: A few clouds with a high of 95, low of 72.

Sunday: Partly cloudy with a high of 95, low of 73.

Monday: Partly cloudy with a high of 94, low of 75.

[EP: If you're headed to the Delta Fair, Germantown Festival, or Memphis Tigers football season and home opener this weekend, plan to sweat during the afternoon, but the humidity will be just below summer norms. Early mornings and evenings should be fairly comfortable. Heat indices could approach 100 on Sunday afternoon.]

--William Churchill, MWN Social Media Intern
[Comments by MWN Meteorologist Erik Proseus noted and italicized]

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August 2013 Climate Data and MWN Forecast Accuracy

The last month of climatological summer (June-July-August) was slightly below normal for both temperatures and rainfall. This resulted in temperatures for the June-August period averaging 1.0 degrees below normal with total precipitation about 0.25" above normal. The highest temperature of the summer was tied twice this month at 97 degrees. In fact, there were no 100 degree days for the summer of 2013!  Climate details for August can be found below.

Memphis International Airport, Memphis, TN

The average temperature for the month of August was 81.1 degrees, or 0.9 degrees below normal. The average high temperature was 89.6 degrees and the average low was 72.5 degrees. The coolest temperature of the month was 60 degrees on the 15th, while the highest temperature was 97 degrees on the 30th and 31st.  For the year, Memphis is 1.1 degrees below average temperature-wise.

Precipitation for the month totaled 2.17", which was 0.71" below the average monthly rainfall. No daily rainfall records were set.  There were eight calendar days with measurable rainfall, only two of which recorded at least 0.5" and one which saw 1" or more.  Through August 31, annual precipitation at Memphis is over 10.5" above the 30-year average.

The maximum 24-hour rainfall was 1.07" on the 11th. The peak wind was a 35 mph thunderstorm-induced gust from the west on the 12th with an average wind speed for the month of 5.8 mph. Click here for a daily statistical recap for Memphis International Airport.

Cirrus Weather Solutions, Bartlett, TN

The average August temperature at Cirrus Weather Solutions was 78.4 degrees with a maximum of 97.0 degrees on the 31st and a minimum of 54.9 degrees on the 15th. August precipitation measured 3.37" via the Cirrus automated gauge and 3.65" in a manual gauge used for the CoCoRaHS program. The measured peak wind gust was 16 mph on the 12th. Average relative humidity was a muggy 82%. Click here for a daily recap on MemphisWeather.net.

MWN Forecast Accuracy

For the month of August, the average temperature error in all MWN temperature forecasts was 1.50 degrees, lower than all available computer data models and the National Weather Service forecasts with the exception of the LAMP short-range model, which only extends 25 hours into the future. MWN's forecasts extend out five periods (2.5 days, or roughly 60 hours). Nearly 85% of the MWN temperature forecasts for the month were within 2 degrees of the actual temperature. For dewpoint accuracy, the MWN forecast averaged 1.64 degrees error and fell within 2 degrees of the actual dewpoint 82% of the time. Historical accuracy statistics can be found here.

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More Seasonable Weather On Tap for First Week in September

Synopsis

After last week's heat and a couple of days of scattered storms more seasonable weather looks to be on tap for the upcoming week. This is thanks to a cold front which has shifted the wind from southerly to northerly, ushering in drier, slightly cooler air into the Mid-South.

Analysis

Above is a surface analysis from NOAA's HPC showing the cold front which has passed through the area. This has dropped our dew points into the lower 60s which is much more comfortable than the mid 70s we had been dealing with last week. In addition to lower dew points, temperatures also look to be primarily in the upper 80s, giving us some decent relief from the previous mid to upper 90s.

Pictured above is the GFS modeled mid-level moisture for Tuesday night. This shows a huge lack of moisture over the Mid-South which indicates no cloud formation is occurring. This is due to northwest flow from the large ridge of high pressure well to the west of the Mid-South. This area of high pressure is preventing any waves of energy from making their way into the area which would otherwise provide uplift for cloud formation. In addition, this northwest flow prevents any significant warm air advection from occurring which would also lead to uplift. As a result, sunny skies and fairly pleasant temperatures are in the forecast for the rest of the work week.

William's Memphis Forecast

Tuesday: A few clouds; high of 89, low of 67.

Wednesday: Sunny; high of 88, low of 66.

Thursday: Sunny; high of 90, low of 68.

Friday: Sunny; high of 91, low of 69.

--William Churchill, MWN Social Media Intern
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