Beautiful work week temps ahead with one mainly cloudy day mid-week

Synopsis

After an absolutely gorgeous Monday I'm pleased to inform you fall will continue across the Mid-South for at least the next few days. The drier air streaming in from the north is most welcome and I find that to be a bigger relief than the cooler temperatures themselves. Not too much to talk about weather-wise this week, but we do have a little upper-level disturbance that could bring some clouds Wednesday. Lets take a look.

Analysis

NAM 500 mb (10,000') relative vorticity and heights at 12Z (7AM) Wednesday.

Above is a modeled image of mid-level atmospheric vorticity. It shows a dip in the heights at this pressure level over the Mid-South (the kink in the black line over the area) as well as a small amount of spin, or vorticity, over us. This indicates a shortwave trough, or upper-level disturbance, which can provide some uplift in the atmosphere. This feature gives me the clue to look for associated moisture as a result of this lifting process.

NAM 850 mb (5,000') relative humidity and wind vectors at 12Z (7AM) Wednesday.

After scouring the many levels of the atmosphere, I found the most pronounced area of moisture to be in the lower-levels. The map above indicates overcast skies in the region through Wednesday morning, however peaks of sun will be possible in the afternoon and evening. Closer to the surface, moisture values will remain fairly low, inhibiting any chances of precipitation.

[EP: This minor "fly in the ointment" will be transient and have little effect on the forecast beyond Wednesday. We'll be back to partly cloudy skies on Thursday as some left-over moisture produces some clouds, with highs back near or slightly above normal.]

William's Memphis Forecast

Tuesday
Sunny with a high of 75, low of 60.

Wednesday
Overcast with possible peaks of sun in the afternoon, high of 75, low of 60.

Thursday
Partly cloudy with a high of 83, low of 62.

--William Churchill, MWN Social Media Intern

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