Warm & breezy spring weekend then another bout of cold air

Yoshino cherry blossoms on Cherry Road, courtesy the Memphis Botanic Garden staff.

Pleasant spring weather will continue into the weekend with temperatures well into the 70s (perhaps a few 80 degree readings) and gusty southerly wind to 25-30 mph. That southerly wind is increasing moisture and humidity levels. We'll see evidence of that this weekend with clouds moving in overnight and lasting into the morning hours, then breaking up in the afternoon resulting in partly sunny skies. Those clouds and steady wind will keep overnight lows in the 60s for the entire area as well.

The next big weather system is a springtime front that moves through early Monday.  Ahead of it, the increasing moisture levels and some instability will result in showers and thunderstorms affecting the area starting Sunday evening and continuing overnight. Severe weather is questionable at this time in the metro due to the atmosphere becoming more stable overnight Sunday night when the front arrives. However areas west of the Mississippi River could see the potential for strong to severe storms Sunday afternoon and evening as shown in the Storm Prediction Center Day 3 severe weather outlook graphic below.

Probability of severe weather  within 25 miles of a point Sunday-Sunday night, according to SPC. The main risk zone will be west of the Mississippi River.

Behind the front, it appears showers will linger through a good part of Monday as low pressure moves along the front, which will be to our east, effectively stalling the front and sending moisture over the front and into the Mid-South in an overrunning pattern. Though it won't be cold Monday morning as temps remain above 60, the mercury could start falling Monday afternoon as the front pulls away, dropping temps through the 50s on a steady north to northeast wind.

Projected rainfall totals from Sunday night through Monday. The Mid-South is likely to see well over an inch of rain, with locally higher amounts.

Clouds finally depart Tuesday with cool conditions expected at least through the middle of the week. Highs may remain in the 50s Tuesday and Wednesday with lows dropping below 40 in some colder outlying areas on Wednesday morning. Another warm-up appears in store as we head into next weekend however.  Just another spring-like roller coaster weather week in the Mid-South!  Click here for the complete MWN Forecast.

--Erik Proseus
MWN Meteorologist

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