Two cold fronts result in a cool Halloween and chilly start to November!

Autumn weather can be fickle and this week is proving to be exhibit A, at least in the temperature department. This past weekend, Mid-South air conditioners cranked back up as highs reach the 80s with more humidity than we have been accustomed to the past couple of weeks. For the first weekend of November though, it appears there will be more shivering than sweating!

A cold front moves through the Mid-South today, bringing with it scattered showers and a chance of afternoon thunderstorms. The showers will linger through the evening hours, but clouds and precipitation will hold temps down in the 70s, which is still a bit above average. The Storm Prediction Center has placed the metro under its first-ever "Marginal" (category 1 of 5) risk of severe weather today ahead of the cold front, but we're rather skeptical that any storms will get anywhere near severe limits. (For a review of the new SPC outlook categories, click here.)

SPC places areas ahead of the cold front in a Marginal risk of severe storms this afternoon. We think the threat of anything approaching severe will be very isolated.

Tonight, rain moves out and by early Wednesday morning clouds follow suit, leaving a mostly sunny day with cooler but not unpleasant temperatures near average for late October - 70 degrees. Thursday will be similar to Wednesday with highs near 70, though a reinforcing (dry) cold front will approach the area. This front moves through early Friday, resulting in a cooler and breezy day on Halloween Friday. Trick-or-treaters those heading to the Liberty Bowl for Memphis Tiger football will need to plan on cool conditions (50s) with a noticeable north breeze on Friday night.

A reinforcing cold front moves through early Friday, with cold Canadian-origin high pressure building in at the surface behind it. This will result in cool temperatures for the weekend.

Behind the secondary cold front, a large upper-level trough forms over the eastern U.S., promising below normal temperatures throughout this first weekend in November. In fact, some areas outside the urban core could see their first frost Saturday and/or Sunday mornings as lows look like they'll drop into the 30s! (For those curious, we're well past the earliest recorded fall freeze dates. The average first freeze in Memphis is November 12. It's a week earlier - November 5 - at the Agricenter which is reflective of conditions in the suburbs. Today is the average first freeze date in Jackson, TN.)

Saturday's high with full sunshine will remain in the 50s before temperatures start to rebound a bit Sunday into early next week. For those who dislike cold weather, this weekend's cool spell looks to be brief as warmer air moves back in next week, along with more rain chances by mid-week. Click here for the complete MWN Forecast.

According to modeled temperatures from the GFS model for the coming couple of weeks (this is NOT forecast data), trends favor a return to warmer weather after this weekend's cool conditions. Other sources agree with this general trend. 

P.S. Don't forget that it's also the end of Daylight Saving Time this Saturday night! "Fall back" to Standard Time when low sun angles occur during rush hour and evenings are dark. Not my favorite time of year...

Erik Proseus
MWN Meteorologist

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