80s to 30s - welcome to fall in Memphis!

Temperatures this afternoon are above 80°, but it appears the record of 84° will stand for another year (at least). As a reminder, the average high for the week before Thanksgiving is about 20° cooler at 62°! The pattern does a major flip over the next 36 hours however. Look upstream at what's behind the cold front coming our way...

Northern Plains radar at 2:45pm CST Thursday. (Intellicast)

Yes, that's snow, and it's spreading across the northern plains and towards Minnesota over the next 24 hours. A sure of sign much colder air behind the front! The air remains warm and mixed by south wind overnight as lows likely won't drop much below 60°. Then we'll have one more warm day Friday as a pre-frontal airmass remains over the region with temperatures rising into the mid 70s on a gusty south wind. A few showers could pop up by early afternoon.

By mid-afternoon Friday, the cold front approaches from the northwest and rain chances increase. In fact, a few thunderstorms are likely as well. The best chance of rain will be after 3pm with the front crossing the metro around the rush hour Friday evening. A few storms could produce gusty wind, but overall severe weather is unlikely. The western half of the metro is in a Marginal Risk of severe weather (category 1 of 5), which is the best chance we've had in a few months, but still quite low. The primary threat, mainly to our west in AR, will be a stray thunderstorm-induced strong wind gust.

Once the front passes, rain will continue, probably steadily for a couple of hours in the evening, as temperatures begin their freefall through the 60s and 50s. By midnight, I expect rain to have moved east and cold air to continue to move in. Dewpoints fall from the lower 60s late Friday afternoon to around 30° by Saturday at dawn with lows Saturday morning near 40°. Friday evening will just be plain wet, windy, and getting colder. If you have plans, adjust as necessary. The rain will be a welcome sight though as the metro is now officially classified as being in "severe drought."

UPGRADED - The entire metro is now classified as being in severe drought. 6-9" of rain is needed to break the drought. #memwx pic.twitter.com/aQNymOQhwI

— MemphisWeather.net (@memphisweather1) November 17, 2016

The weekend looks good, just MUCH colder. I anticipate highs in the mid 50s with a low Sunday morning near freezing in the city and likely into the 20s in outlying, rural areas with light wind. Early next week features slightly warming temperatures (60s) with another very cold morning Monday, then some moderation. It'll definitely feel more like November! A system mid-week next week could disrupt some travel plans, especially across the middle of the country, but by Thanksgiving we should be cool and dry in the metro once again. Check details in the forecast via the MWN website or mobile app (links below). We'll have more on next week later this weekend.

Erik Proseus
MWN Meteorologist

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