Cold front tonight! Cooler temps but not much rain

A brief post as we await tonight's cold front...

As temperatures reach record territory for the third day in the past six (85° at 2:38pm breaks the previous record of 83° set in 2012), we are eagerly aniticipating the arrival of a cold front this evening. The front will drop temperatures 10° or so on the highs and as much as 15-20° for overnight lows as dewpoints drop enough to let cool mornings set in. This will make it feel much more comfortable, but will actually still be above average for this time of year. Average highs are in the upper 60s, while average lows are in the upper 40s.

Mid-afternoon high-res model imagery showing scattered showers developing along the cold front as it moves through the metro this evening. Anything that falls is likely to be fairly brief. (If image doesn't loop, click here and select the Memphis metro from the menu.) (WxBell)

On the down side, not much rain is expected with the front. Scattered showers, and maybe a brief rumble of thunder, are expected this evening, but not everyone will get rain and few will see enough to be considered "beneficial." We recommend grabbing the umbrella just in case if you have outdoor plans this evening.

Over the past 90 days, very little precipitation has occurred across the southeast U.S. outside of the hurricane zone along the eastern seaboard (see image below). The metro sits at about 50% of normal, and much of that actually occurred in August, with very little rainfall in the past couple of months. This has resulted in a moderate drought for the immediate area, while places to our southeast (where rainfall has been less than 25% of normal) are in very bad shape when it comes to drought.

90 day precipitation anomalies for the interior southeastern U.S. from the NWS show a dearth of rainfall, which has contributed to extreme drought conditions in some areas. (weather.gov)

Dry weather is expected to continue throught the weekend into next week with high pressure aloft over the southeast U.S. remaining firmly entrenched. This will keep temperatures above normal, though more pleasant than the past several days (mostly in the 70s for highs). Referencing our last blog post, there still looks to be a more significant pattern shift coming after the middle of November. Stay tuned.

For the latest forecast information, as well as current conditions and MWN StormView Radar, download the MemphisWeather.net mobile app or visit us on the mobile web.

Erik Proseus
MWN Meteorologist

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