Rain tonight, cold temps mid-week, then more rain

After getting through a couple of days that served as the coldest of the season so far (those morning lows near 20 were bitter weren't they?), things have warmed back up a bit just in time for precipitation to arrive.

Rain tonight, dry Monday

A few spotty showers were around this afternoon and the weather won’t be improving overnight. Expect rain to increase in coverage as we head into the night. Occasional downpours and a chance of thunder (but no severe weather) are possible as a cold front moves through the Memphis metro area overnight. Temperatures remain nearly steady in the 50s much of the night until the front moves through in the wee hours Monday morning, then only dipping slightly into the mid 40s. 

Forecast radar valid at 3am Monday from the North American model (NAM) as precipitation moves east and out of the metro. THe dashed red & blue lines indicate the relative temperature of the air from the surface to 18,000'. The bottom (furthest south) blue line as roughly the rain/snow line. (PivotalWx)

Rain should cease by about rush hour Monday, but the sky will remain overcast through the morning with partial clearing in the afternoon as highs reach the mid 50s. The wind will calm to a light breeze (less than 10 mph) by morning as it switches directions from the south to the north behind the cold front. With the front hanging around between here and the Gulf Coast, a weak upper level wave along the front could bring a few very light showers back into the north MS portions of the metro overnight Monday night.

Mid-week chill

For the mid-week period, high pressure to our north takes control, bringing cooling temperatures as the week goes on as another Arctic blast strafes the Mid-South, with the brunt of the cold air hitting the northern tier of the U.S. We'll be hearing about significant snowfall across the Midwest into the Northeast this week, but partly cloudy to partly sunny skies are expected locally. Highs slip from near 50 Tuesday to the mid 30s by Thursday though as the Arctic air seeps south. Lows will again be in the 20s Thursday and Friday mornings with dry conditions expected.

Animation every 12 hours from mid-day Monday through mid-day Friday of temperatures at 5000 feet. The blues and pinks are below freezing, so you can track the movement of cold air throughout the week according to the American GFS model. Notice it stays mainly across the northern U.S. but takes a dip south late in the week when our temperatures are forecast to cool quite a bit. (PivotalWx)

More rain heading into the weekend

As we head into next weekend, it warms back up just in time for more precipitation (are you sensing a trend here?). Slight chances of rain are possible Friday as temperatures rebound into the 40s and likely continue climbing Friday night, reaching the 60s Saturday with rainy conditions expected. We'll be watching the cold air arrive on the back side of that system as well to see if any leftover moisture is in place Sunday as the colder air arrives. Much too far out for any dire predictions on that, so we'll go with the usual - dry and cold. :-)

Geminids

Finally, as a side note, the Geminids meteor shower peaks this week on Tuesday night, but if there is any clearing at nighttime this week, you might take advantage of trying to spot a few meteors! Unfortunately, a full-ish moon will make spotting them a little more difficult. Best viewing is between midnight and dawn. Good luck!

Erik Proseus
MWN Meteorologist

Jared Darby
MWN Meteorologist/Blogger


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