April to end wet, then a cool start to May

With the first in a series of storm systems behind us (last night's semi-bust [at least locally] of a perfectly good Enhanced/Moderate Risk scenario), we turn our attention to the last weekend in April, one in which there are many outdoor activities planned, including a Redbirds home-stand and at least a couple of civic festivals. Fortunately, the forecast has improved slightly from a few days ago, at least for part of the weekend.

Preliminary storm reports from April 26 overlaid on the morning SPC outlook. While there were about 200 wind and hail reports for the day, except for a string of reports that extended well beyond the Slight Risk area in the Midwest, reports were fairly scattered and there were zero tornado reports, the basis for the Moderate Risk. (NOAA/SPC)

Friday: Gulf opens up

After a pleasant spring day on Thursday with highs near 70 and comfortable humidity, Wednesday night's front returns north on Friday morning as a warm front. The passage of the front means the arrival of humidity levels we haven't seen yet this spring as dewpoints climb to near 70 degrees or a bit higher. You'll notice the sticky-ness when you leave work or pick up the kids in the afternoon, as well as the return of gusty south wind signaling that the Gulf is open for business.

A couple of showers are possible during the morning as the front surges north and low pressure starts traveling along the front to our west, then there's a chance of a few thunderstorms in the afternoon, though models differ on that prediction. If they do develop, there will be a good deal of instability so gusty wind and pockets of hail are possible in any strong storms. High temperatures reach the lower 80s, and if the sun peaks through the clouds some in the afternoon, perhaps mid 80s.

Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE, or instability, aka "storm fuel") forecast by the GFS model on Friday evening will be very high - more than enough to fuel strong storms, IF they form.

Friday Night: borderline

The fireworks really start along the front on Friday evening as thunderstorms explode to our north. A corridor from OK across northern AR into the Ohio Valley will see multiple rounds of storms with heavy rain Friday night. The metro is right on the southern edge of where rain will fall and chances vary based on the model scenario you want to buy. Northern areas definitely have a better shot at rain than north MS, but we could all stay dry too. For now, we'll carry a generic "chance of thunderstorms" until it becomes a little clearer. The corridor to our north will not only be prone to some flooding, but also severe weather, including large hail and damaging wind.  An Enhanced Risk (category 3/5) is outlooked as far south as I-40. Our threat locally is conditional on storms actually occurring. Once again, if they happen, they could be strong. Temperatures won't drop below 70 degrees Friday night.

The severe weather risk is Enhanced (3/5) for areas north of I-40 on Friday night. If storms form this far south, they could be severe. Chances of them forming in the metro are about 30-40%. (NOAA/SPC)

Saturday: summertime

Saturday may be our first taste of early summer as the front remains well to our north and gusty southerly wind indicate the Gulf is still open, leading to continued high humidity. With some sunshine expected, temperatures that start near 70 will soar into the 80s and perhaps close to 90 in spots and the term "heat index" may be bantered about as it will likely eclipse 90 for the first time in 2017. With the heat and humidity in place, there appears to be a chance of some afternoon "peak heating" thunderstorms not atypical of a Mid-South summer day. If storms form, they could again be strong with high wind gusts the main threat. Outside of storm gusts, general wind will be very gusty throughout the day as well, peaking at 25-35 mph and perhaps higher.  If you have outdoor plans, keep them. If you have outdoor objects, secure them. If you're a vendor at a festival, leave the brochures at home.

The European model, which we rarely show, highlights the potential for strong wind gusts on Saturday, perhaps approaching 40 mph at their peak. (WxBell)

Sunday: wet

The weekend ends with a very wet, windy, and potentially stormy day. The system to our northwest finally gets pushed back to the southeast by low pressure that moves out of the southern plains. Rain starts early, maybe before dawn, and continues for several hours. The GFS and European models differ on when the front arrives to shut off the spigot, but it will likely be no earlier than mid-afternoon and possibly as late as the evening. Rain could be heavy with 2-3" possible during the day.

The Weather Prediction Center forecasts rainfall for the entire weekend in the 2-4" range in the metro, but over 6" not too far away in AR and MO. Expect this to lead to additional rises in local and main stream rivers like the Mississippi into next week.

In addition, there are indications that it could be one of the windiest days in a long time, especially if the front lingers to the west until late in the day. Gusts have the potential to reach 40-50 mph, perhaps stronger in storms that are also expected. Saturated soil and strong wind could be enough to down some trees. Stay tuned, as the models still need to come to some consensus.

Next week: below normal temps

Once the big system moves out Sunday night, spring returns early in the week with dry air, cooler mornings, and pleasant afternoons. One more system that brings a chance of rain mid-week will be followed by an even cooler spell, just in time for Beale Street Music Fest! Let's hope for a great weekend for the massive party on the river!

In the meantime, Go Grizzlies!!

Erik Proseus
MWN Meteorologist

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Another stormy pattern takes shape as April winds down

A wet weekend marked by chilly temperatures is in the rear-view mirror with the early part of the work week defined by more typical springtime temperatures in the mid 70s to near 80 degrees and abundant sunshine. However, as you might expect, you should savor these days as they don't typically stick around for long! We're back into a wet - and stormy- pattern by Wednesday that carries us right to the end of the month.

As high pressure responsible for the mostly sunny sky and warm temperatures shifts east, southerly flow is re-established and a cold front makes its approach by the middle of the week. Ahead of the front, Gulf moisture will raise dewpoints into the 60s on gusty south wind, sufficient to support thunderstorms. In addition, there will be enough instability and wind shear to support the threat of a few severe storms. The daytime hours Wednesday should be mainly dry, but as the sun sets, look for a line of storms to be moving quickly across AR, pushed by a cold front.

According to the GFS model (which is supported by our other models), dewpoints in the 60s, sufficient for heavy rain and thunderstorms, will be in place Wednesday evening as a cold front moves across the region. (PivotalWeather)

The GFS model also predicts sufficient instability and low level shear (combined, we reference as the "Energy Helicity Index") to produce a threat of rotating storms, capable of damaging wind, some hail, and a tornado or two on Wednesday evening. Plan ahead if you have ball games or other outdoor activities Wednesday night. (PivotalWeather)

The line will move across the metro during the mid to late evening hours or most likely between 7pm-midnight Wednesday. The severe weather risk is higher just to our west, but as indicated by the graphics above, is also possible in the metro. [UPDATED Tuesday, 6:30am] An Enhanced Risk of severe storms (category 3/5) is forecast for areas just west of the metro with a Slight Risk (category 2/5) covering metro Memphis. This outlook will be updated again on Tuesday afternoon and a few times Wednesday and could change based on newer information from the computer models. For now, be prepared for the possibility of damaging wind and perhaps some hail or a tornado. Heavy rain (an inch or more is possible) and lightning are likely.

Thursday will see high pressure build briefly back into the region, but by Friday, low pressure over the Plains will set the stage for additional storms, some of which could be severe heading into the weekend. Our best chances for storms appear to be late Friday into early Saturday, then again Saturday night and Sunday. The daytime hours Friday and Saturday MAY catch a break based on the latest model data, but the weekend situation is very dynamic and could easily change. Once again, somewhat like last weekend, periods of heavy rain appear likely. Right now I'd say Sunday is the most likely day we could experience heavy rain during daytime hours. Rainfall totals from Wednesday evening through Sunday could be in the 3-6" range, more than we got last weekend by a factor of about 2.

The Weather Prediction Center believes we could be in line for 3-6" of rainfall over the next week from multiple systems that affect the region. (NOAA/WPC)

As for severe weather threats, there could be a chance of damaging wind and hail Friday night and all modes of severe weather (wind, hail or a tornado) on Sunday. The current outlooks from the Storm Prediction Center for Friday through Sunday is shown below. Again, these WILL change multiple times between now and then, but this is a heads up that you need to remain weather aware as we approach the weekend.

Severe weather probabilities for the weekend from the Storm Prediction Center show an active pattern in the south-central U.S. A 15% probability equates to a Slight Risk and means that there is a 15% chance of severe weather (hail, wind, or tornado) within 25 miles of a point inside the area. A 30% risk equates to an Enhanced Risk. (SPC) (Click here if the image does not loop.)

Stay up to date with the latest forecast from MWN via our website and mobile apps, and via our social media channels and blog, all linked below.

Side note: current conditions from Bartlett, TN are unavailable in our apps and website due to weather station maintenance. We expect this outage to last through about May 5 and certainly apologize for the inconvenience!

Erik Proseus
MWN Meteorologist

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April (heavy) showers in the forecast

The rainfall deficit in Memphis so far this year is about 6" with about half of that since March 1. A wet system this weekend looks to put a dent in that deficit with the potential for heavy rain and some thunderstorms affecting springtime outdoor activities. Let's dig into the details.

Wednesday and Thursday

A front earlier this week is basically a non-factor now as we head into the middle of the week and start making plans for the weekend. A few pop-up showers are possible this afternoon and again Thursday afternoon, but coverage should be minimal with temperatures well into the 80s (10°+ warmer than average for this time of year).

By Thursday night, a cold front drops south into the metro and brings a chance of showers and thunderstorms. I expect the evening hours to only have small chances, but they'll increase overnight as the front stalls along I-40 like rush hour traffic with multiple accidents in progress. If you're headed to FedExForum to cheer Fizz and the Grizz and chide the refs, you should be in pretty good shape, though some rain might start to fall in sync with the streamers from the rafters about 11pm (#TakeThatForData)!

Friday

The front will likely stall along the I-40 corridor all day (because that's why I-40 exists - for fronts to know where to stop). Building instability to its south over north MS and energy in the mid levels of the atmosphere going by to its north will result in scattered showers and thunderstorms during the day and into Friday evening. There could be a few strong storms during the PM hours, especially over north MS.

The North American Model (NAM) shows the front roughly along I-40 Friday afternoon with instability ("storm fuel," measured by CAPE) along and south of the front where the best chance of storms will exist. 

The entire area is currently outlooked under a Marginal Risk (category 1/5) of severe weather, which means a few severe storms are possible, but chances are low. Where the front stalls will be key as the best chance of strong storms, as well as potentially some heavy rain, will be along and south of it. Temperatures will remain in the 70s most of the day.

A Marginal Risk (category 1/5) of severe weather exists Friday across the area. A couple storms could contain strong wind. 

On Friday night, low pressure over OK will move east into AR and start to pull that front back to the north, putting the metro in the "warm sector" of the approaching low by Saturday morning. Expect more thunder as it does so, as well as some downpours and breezy southerly wind. Friday and Friday night activities need to have a rain plan if you're risk tolerance is low.

Saturday

The low pressure system in AR looks like it'll also take I-40 eastbound and move just about over Memphis by mid-day. Models differ some on placement of the low, the warm front pulling north, and timing of a cold front that the low drags across the area. However, without trying to nail down exact details, expect Saturday to be a wet day, and potentially a washout for at least a portion of the day. As the low draws near, thunderstorm chances increase markedly, as does the likelihood of heavy rain. Right now, the morning and early afternoon hours are most "under the gun," with conditions improving steadily as we head towards Game 4 Saturday night.

The NAM model expects low pressure to be nearing the metro, dragging a cold front (blue line) towards the MS River by early afternoon Saturday. The red line is a warm front that had previously stalled along I-40 on Friday.

The Storm Prediction Center has the equivalent of a Slight Risk (category 2/5) of severe weather forecast for Saturday and I can't argue that. Instability should be sufficient, wind energy is expected, and a potent low will move right over us. That could be the recipe for a few strong storms with wind and hail threats. The tornado threat doesn't look too high right now, but where there's a low and a warm front, we have to consider that a possibility.

The day 4 (Saturday) outlook places the metro in a 15% risk of severe storms, equivalent to a Slight Risk. Areas ahead of the low and south of the warm front will have a risk of strong wind, hail, and an isolated tornado. Our threat ends with the frontal passage Saturday afternoon.

I believe the threat of flash flooding is more widespread than any of those threats right now though. Most areas in the Mid-South will likely see 2-3" of rain between Thursday night and Saturday evening with a good deal of that Saturday. Some spots could see 3-4" or more if storms train along the front. My concern is actually for spots that see heavy rain prior to Saturday, as that could set the stage for Saturday's rain being all run-off due to wet ground. Fortunately, this month has been fairly dry so far.

Total rainfall forecast through Monday morning. Widespread 2-3" totals are likely over the next 4-5 days. (NOAA/WPC)

Sunday into next week

Withe the low to the east and northwest wind wrapping around it, Sunday will be cooler and likely start off cloudy with clouds diminishing by afternoon or evening. A stray shower is possible as temperatures that start near 50 get no higher than the mid 60s on gusty northwest wind. It'll feel more like early spring than the early summer we have started to notice lately!

Early next week promises a return to nice spring-like conditions with abundant sunshine and highs in the 70s, rising to 80 by Wednesday. Sounds like something to look forward to!

Erik Proseus
MWN Meteorologist

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Easter Weekend Forecast: warm with increasing rain chances

It certainly has warmed up over the past couple days! Spring is definitely as it starts to feel a little like early summer during the afternoon hours. Temperatures are more than 10 degrees above our normal (comfortable) highs for this time of the year - the lower 70s. With Easter weekend upon us and outdoor activities really starting to ramp up, let's unwrap the details on how long the warm weather may last, and whether there's any rain in the forecast!

Friday

With high pressure re-establishing over the east coast and an upper level ridge in place, plus very little recent rainfall (which converts some of the sun's energy to evaporation rather than heating), we should be looking at warm temperatures very similar to Thursday. After a morning low in the lower 60s, the high should once again be in the mid 80s. The record is 88°. A stray shower or two can't be ruled out, but the rain chance should be 20% or less. Though warm, I proclaim it a GOOD Friday!

Saturday

The pattern changes little over our area other than a slight weakening of the upper level ridge of high pressure, so a few more clouds are expected but rain chances will be fleeting. With southerly wind blowing a little stronger and a bit more cloud cover, we'll see slightly warmer morning lows (mid 60s) but similar highs in the afternoon (83-85°). A great day for Easter egg hunts or any outdoor plans you have!

Easter Sunday

With the high breaking down a bit more, a weak front will move to a position north of the metro, but additional cloud cover is expected as well as an increase in humidity south of the front. If you're up early for sunrise services, look for a mild morning with temperatures in the mid 60s. By afternoon egg hunts, we could see a few showers around the area that could throw a wrench in your plans, though most activity will be to our north (northeast AR and northwest TN) closer to the front. Highs should again reach 80°, if not a touch warmer depending on cloud cover and rain chances.

Next week

As we head back to work and school, the front works it's way south a little further and rain and thunderstorm chances increase. Monday could be a day we're dodging raindrops off and on most of the day. Tuesday looks similar, though with high pressure starting to build back in, rain chances could be limited to the afternoon hours when it's warmest.

By mid-week, the high over the southeastern U.S. looks to be re-established and the storm track (which could be "stormy") should round that high well to our west and north. We'll watch for that to break down by late in the week. Temperatures early next week will generally be in the upper 70s to lower 80s for highs and 60s for lows - still above normal for this time of year.

Erik Proseus
MWN Meteorologist

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March 2017 Climate Data for Memphis, TN

March Recap

After a string of 8 of the past 9 months ending in their respective top 10 warmest, March yielded just slightly, but was still three degrees above normal. A string of days from the 11th-16th produced well below normal temperatures, otherwise every other day except one was at or above the normal daily temperature for that day. During the cold streak, which saw highs mainly in the 40s and lows in the 30s, a record low was tied on the 15th when the mercury dropped to 25 degrees. However, warmth came back with a vengeance and a record high was tied 5 days later at 85 degrees! In fact, it was above 70 degrees two days later.

With respect to precipitation, March is typically wet and there was abundant rainfall, but the airport officially ended about an inch and a half shy of the average March. During the cold spell, a snow event affected northern sections of the metro, northeast AR, and northwest TN on the 11th. The airport officially recorded a trace of snow, although just over 1/2" fell at MWN in north Bartlett and 2-3" fell in the far northern metro (see graphic below). Again on the 13th and 14th, traces of snow occurred. As for severe weather reports it was a fairly active month as can happen in March as spring sets in. Multiple hail reports were received from storms on the 27th while wind reports were received on the 1st, 7th, 10th and 30th, mainly in the form of downed trees.

A snow event occurred on March 11th as a cold front moved through the Mid-South. Snowfall generally tapered from north to south with highest amounts in the metro occurring in Tipton County (2-3 inches). Graphic courtesy NWS-Memphis.

Memphis International Airport, Memphis, TN

Temperature
Average temperature: 57.0 degrees (3.0 degrees above average)
Average high temperature: 66.9 degrees (3.0 degrees above average)
Average low temperature: 47.1 degrees (3.0 degrees above average)
Warmest temperature: 85 degrees (20th)
Coolest temperature: 25 degrees (15th)
Heating Degrees Days: 280 (78 below average)
Cooling Degree Days: 38 (21 above average)
Records set or tied: A record low temperature was tied on the 15th (25°). Five days later on the 20th, the record high temperature of 85° was tied.
Comments: Three days recorded low temperatures at or below freezing, which is the long-term average.

Precipitation
Monthly total: 3.61" (1.55" below average)
Days with measurable precipitation: 12 (1.5 days above average)
Wettest 24-hour period: 1.03" (7th)
Snowfall: Trace (0.4" below average)
Records set or tied: A trace of snow on the 11th tied the record snowfall for the date.
Comments: A trace of snow was recorded on 3 days - the 11th, 13th, and 14th.

Miscellaneous
Peak wind: Southeast/47 mph (29th)
Average wind: 10.1 mph
Average relative humidity: 61%
Average sky cover: 50%

Click here for a daily statistical recap for Memphis International Airport.

Cirrus Weather Solutions / MemphisWeather.net, Bartlett, TN

Temperature
Average temperature: 57.0 degrees
Average high temperature: 67.9 degrees
Average low temperature: 45.1 degrees
Warmest temperature: 86.6 degrees (20th)
Coolest temperature: 25.1 degrees (15th)
Comments: None

Precipitation
Monthly total: 3.82" (automated rain gauge), 4.09" (manual CoCoRaHS rain gauge)
Days with measurable precipitation: 15
Wettest date: 0.94" (7th) (via automated gauge)
Snowfall: 0.6" (11th)
Comments: None

Miscellaneous
Peak wind: Southeast/34 mph (30th)
Average relative humidity: 68%
Average barometric pressure: 30.16 in. Hg

Click here for a daily statistical recap for Bartlett, TN.

MWN Forecast Accuracy

MWN average temperature error: 2.84 degrees
MWN forecast temperatures within 2 degrees of actual: 47%
MWN average dewpoint error: 3.67 degrees
MWN forecast dewpoints within 2 degrees of actual: 39%

MWN's forecasts extend out five periods (2.5 days, or roughly 60 hours). Historical accuracy statistics can be found here.

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The Heat Cranks Back Up This Week

Have you grown tired of 50s and 60s for temps? Are you hoping for an early arrival of summer-like conditions? If not, you may be disappointed to learn that Mother Nature is cranking up the heat in the Mid-South this coming week.

Enjoy the Warm Weekend!

With high pressure in control over the eastern half of the United States, a great weekend has been on the menu for the Memphis metro. Temperatures on Saturday reached the mid 70s, some ten degrees higher than what we saw on Friday. This spells the end of the cooler air that came in following a series of storms in the couple of weeks prior with more above average warmth for the foreseeable future.

Sunday will see temperatures in Memphis potentially push to near 80 degrees once again with mostly sunny skies, but winds increasing ahead of the next system that could bring unsettled weather to the area. This strengthening of a southerly wind could push gusts to near 30 mph tomorrow, so be sure to watch those loose objects around your house. This continues into Monday with more clouds building in and temperatures in the mid to upper 70s.

A Few Storms Roll for the Work Week

While the east is basking in the warmer and calmer conditions, the west is battling with rain and thunderstorms rolling in. That low pressure will shift across Colorado and into the Great Plains to start the work week, funneling the rain forward and into the Mid-South by overnight Monday and into Tuesday.

The strongest potential for rain and thunderstorms comes on Tuesday, with the arrival of a weak cold front that washes out over the region by mid-week. However, temperatures are not expected to fall off much if at all into the middle of your work week, with 70s and even 80s still possible for most. A low chance of showers and storms sticks around too, though mostly in the afternoons once the atmosphere warms up over the course of the day. Right now, we don't expect any storms to be severe this week.

Showers and thunderstorms will work into the Memphis metro overnight on Monday and into Tuesday, all associated with a low-pressure system located over the Great Plains. (NWS/NOAA)

A summer-like pattern then sets up by the end of the work week into Easter weekend, with long-term forecasts showing the warmer air is here to stay as we head towards May.

The week 2 outlook from the Climate Prediction Center shows a very good chance of above normal temperatures for the third week in April. Outlooks for the end of April show similar trends. (CPC/NOAA)

Want more weather info for the Memphis metro? Be sure to check out our human-generated forecasts each day, as well as on our social media platforms. You can also access our forecasts on the go with the MWN app, including pinpoint severe weather alerts from StormWatch+.

Enjoy a great weather weekend!

Alex Herbst, Meteorologist
MWN Social Media Intern

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I See a Pattern Change A-Coming…For Now

After a very unsettled pattern has thrown storm after storm at the mid-south, could there be a lull in the action from Mother Nature around the corner? If so, first we’ll have to get past the next cold front plowing through the metro into early tomorrow.

Showers Here, Strong Storms There

A near picture perfect day in Memphis on Tuesday will give way to yet another chance of rain early on Wednesday. However, unlike previous systems that have pushed through the region, expectations say that these showers and isolated thunderstorms will not be strong to severe. As the cold front moves through the metro, a few showers are possible early beginning around dawn and continuing to noontime. By the afternoon, the front will pass and the chances of rain diminish. Temperatures should remain steady in the 60s throughout the day.

Meanwhile, off to our east, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) is expecting a strong severe weather event to develop across Alabama, Georgia, and South Carolina. Having already been hit with strong storms on Monday, these storms could be just as strong on Wednesday afternoon. The threat also expands north into the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys, though smaller than in the Southeast. If you have friends or relatives living in these areas or traveling to cities like Atlanta, they should be prepared for these storms. Threats include hail, strong winds, and isolated tornadoes.

A moderate (4/5) risk for severe thunderstorms exists for parts of Alabama, Georgia, and South Carolina for Wednesday. The risk for storms across the Memphis region is much more isolated, per the Storm Prediction Center (SPC).

Following the storms, expect a shift in the wind out of the west, ushering in cooler air for the region. These winds will be particularly strong, with gusts possibly up to 40 mph in spots. These sustained winds between 10 and 20 mph continue into Thursday, but should die off by the evening hours. Best to prepare, however, by bringing loose objects (including garbage cans, recycling bins, and some lawn furniture) indoors.

A Calming Pattern

After seeing five rounds of storms roll through the metro area in the last week to week and a half, Mother Nature is finally prepared to give the mid-south a much-needed break. However, along with that comes a big change in temperatures, especially overnight.

Skies begin to clear on Wednesday night, but with that comes lows in the mid 40s in the city, and potentially as low as near 40 in the suburbs. Brighter skies are likely Thursday and Friday, but with highs only hitting the low 60s. Lows each night could drop to the low 40s in Memphis and perhaps as low as the upper 30s in Tipton County and other points outside the city.

It’s likely to be a chilly start to your morning on Friday, with temperatures at 7:00 am expected to be near 40. Some suburbs could even drop into the low 30s, something we don’t see too often in April.

Great Weekend Ahead

Temperatures that took a tumble to end your work week will be on the rise again by the weekend, with more seasonal highs returning by Saturday. Both days of your weekend will see temps hit the 70s with partly to mostly sunny skies, and lows overnight rising from the 40s into the 50s.

When will our next chance of rain come? We’re watching for some thunderstorms possibly on Monday afternoon into Tuesday, as temps push back towards the 80-degree mark. But for now, get out and enjoy a gorgeous weekend. Though the Memphis Redbirds won’t be in town, it still should be a good time to turn off the TV and go throw around the ball with man’s best friend.

Looking to keep ahead of the weather while you’re on the go? Be sure to download the MWN Weather App, where you can check our latest human-generated forecast, get your pinpointed watches and warnings through StormWatch+, and more. You can also follow MWN on Facebook and Twitter for great info too.

Alex Herbst, Meteorologist

MWN Social Media Intern

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Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder

Severe weather expected in the Lower MS Valley and a look into the week ahead

In the past 10 days, four weather systems have brought the threat of severe weather to Memphis and produced severe weather nearby. After a beautiful spring weekend, the high overcast clouds are an indicator that more storms are in the region and, indeed, the Lower Mississippi Valley region is once again under the gun for a major severe weather outbreak. Fortunately this time, Memphis is on the far edge of the severe weather potential, but that doesn't mean well stay dry. To the contrary, a wet night is in store and tomorrow promises another chance of showers and thunderstorms as well. Let's get into the details.

Sunday night

A potent weather system will sweep through the Lower Mississippi Valley the rest of today into tonight as low pressure moves north out of east Texas into northeast Oklahoma, pushing a cold front slowly east. Multiple rounds of strong to severe storms will affect areas to our south as upper level impulses drive the storms. The first round of severe storms is sweeping across Louisiana with additional rain and storms lifting northeast across Arkansas. Rain will move over the Memphis area early this evening as storms stay mainly to our south.

Current radar loop of the Lower Mississippi River Valley (NOAA)

After the evening slug of rain, additional showers will be likely until another round of heavier rain and some thunderstorms move through the Mid-South during the post-midnight hours, again on the northern end of a much stronger line of storms that passes by to our south. There is a low confidence/risk of strong wind and flash flooding with any thunderstorms during the evening and early morning hours. The metro is in a Marginal Risk (category 1 of 5) severe weather risk.

A severe weather outbreak of high wind and tornadoes, as well as some hail, can be found across the Lower Mississippi Valley through tonight. Probabilities of tornadoes, wind, and hail are the chance for that type of severe weather within 25 miles. Memphis is on the far northern edge of the severe weather risk area. (SPC)

A closer view of the Memphis area and our Marginal severe weather risk. A much higher chance of severe storms is not too far to our south. (SPC)

HRRR model simulated radar through 8am Monday shows the evening round of rain then additional storms overnight with the strongest storms south of Memphis. (WxBell)

Monday

The overnight rain and storms should exit the Memphis area around the start of the Monday morning rush hour, but overnight rainfall will make for wet streets and some ponding of water is possible. Keep that in mind as you head to work and school. By late morning, the cold front will advance into the Mid-South. Some unstable air will likely accompany the front with a few scattered showers and thunderstorms possible during the lunch hour and early afternoon hours. Once again, we are in a Marginal Risk (category 1 of 5) for severe storms on Monday as a few wind or hail storms are possible, though not likely. In addition, Monday will be a windy day with southwest breezes gusting to 30 mph.

The severe weather outlook for Monday shows a Marginal Risk over Memphis while a much higher threat of severe storms exists across the Deep South. (SPC)

Tuesday

Monday night and Tuesday will be back to pleasant spring weather as wind returns quickly to the south, resulting in lows in the 50s and highs back near 80 under partly cloudy skies.

Wednesday through the end of the week

Another cold front moves through during the first half of the day Wednesday. It appears that most of the precipitation with this front will pass by to our south as well as form to our east as the front enters an atmosphere with more unstable air. A severe weather risk exists to our east. For the metro, just a slight chance of showers or a thunderstorm is expected.

Behind the front, a much cooler and drier airmass moves over the region to dominate the weather pattern the rest of the week into the weekend. Highs drop back down into the 60s Thursday and Friday with lows in the 40s before warming again heading into next weekend.

Be sure you have the MemphisWeather.net mobile app on your smartphone for the latest on tonight and tomorrow's storms. Though severe weather watches and warnings are not anticipated, it IS spring time, so activating StormWatch+ for severe weather alerts (anticipated or not) is also a good idea. Links to everything you need are shown below.

Erik Proseus
MWN Meteorologist

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