Easter Weekend Forecast: warm with increasing rain chances

It certainly has warmed up over the past couple days! Spring is definitely as it starts to feel a little like early summer during the afternoon hours. Temperatures are more than 10 degrees above our normal (comfortable) highs for this time of the year - the lower 70s. With Easter weekend upon us and outdoor activities really starting to ramp up, let's unwrap the details on how long the warm weather may last, and whether there's any rain in the forecast!

Friday

With high pressure re-establishing over the east coast and an upper level ridge in place, plus very little recent rainfall (which converts some of the sun's energy to evaporation rather than heating), we should be looking at warm temperatures very similar to Thursday. After a morning low in the lower 60s, the high should once again be in the mid 80s. The record is 88°. A stray shower or two can't be ruled out, but the rain chance should be 20% or less. Though warm, I proclaim it a GOOD Friday!

Saturday

The pattern changes little over our area other than a slight weakening of the upper level ridge of high pressure, so a few more clouds are expected but rain chances will be fleeting. With southerly wind blowing a little stronger and a bit more cloud cover, we'll see slightly warmer morning lows (mid 60s) but similar highs in the afternoon (83-85°). A great day for Easter egg hunts or any outdoor plans you have!

Easter Sunday

With the high breaking down a bit more, a weak front will move to a position north of the metro, but additional cloud cover is expected as well as an increase in humidity south of the front. If you're up early for sunrise services, look for a mild morning with temperatures in the mid 60s. By afternoon egg hunts, we could see a few showers around the area that could throw a wrench in your plans, though most activity will be to our north (northeast AR and northwest TN) closer to the front. Highs should again reach 80°, if not a touch warmer depending on cloud cover and rain chances.

Next week

As we head back to work and school, the front works it's way south a little further and rain and thunderstorm chances increase. Monday could be a day we're dodging raindrops off and on most of the day. Tuesday looks similar, though with high pressure starting to build back in, rain chances could be limited to the afternoon hours when it's warmest.

By mid-week, the high over the southeastern U.S. looks to be re-established and the storm track (which could be "stormy") should round that high well to our west and north. We'll watch for that to break down by late in the week. Temperatures early next week will generally be in the upper 70s to lower 80s for highs and 60s for lows - still above normal for this time of year.

Erik Proseus
MWN Meteorologist

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