Liberty Bowl forecast, NYE snow chances, and more Arctic cold

The cold is here, and it's not going anywhere anytime soon! Unfortunately the best we can expect is some fluctuations in the magnitude of the cold, but not necessarily a full reprieve for a while.

Let's start with the near-term. After a couple of bitterly cold days, the next reprieve arrives tomorrow and Saturday when high temperatures climb to 40° (slightly higher Friday) after cold early morning hours. Wind actually turns southerly for a brief period Friday afternoon through early Saturday  before the next Arctic front seeps through the Mid-South Saturday afternoon.

For those attending the AutoZone Liberty Bowl Saturday, it will definitely be chilly, but it could be worse! Wind will pick up a bit during the game to around 10 mph, which will keep wind chills near freezing, though highs will reach near 40° during the game.

Though it will be cold, it won't even be in the top 10 coldest Liberty Bowl games on record. Below are the coldest Liberty Bowl games, courtesy of Bryan Moss-Namowicz of TigerSportsReport.com. The most recent bitterly cold game was January 2, 2010 (shown as the 2009 game) when Arkansas beat East Carolina, 20-17 in overtime, with a game-time temperature of 29°.

After Saturday, all eyes turn to New Year's Eve on Sunday, which is the day local meteorologists have been hemming-and-hawing over snow chances since the beginning of the week. At this time, confidence is increasing that we will see no more than flurries on Sunday with temperatures in the 20s all day.

The model history on this event is that the American GFS model was forecasting light accumulation of snow on New Year's Eve for about the last week, until Thursday night. The European model had insisted on dry weather for the same period of time. On Thursday, roles reversed. The morning European model decided light snow was likely Sunday. Meantime, the American model was backing off. The European snow lasted for two model runs (Thursday morning and evening) before it too returned to form. As of today, with the shorter-range NAM model joining the fray and the Canadian model kicked in for good measure, models are now unanimous that no accumulating snow is expected. Flurries can't be ruled out. And it will be bitterly cold.

The Thursday morning European model valid on Sunday shows precipitation to our west and south, moving to the southeast, missing the Mid-South. (WxBell)

The Thursday afternoon GFS model valid on Sunday also shows precipitation to our south, moving away and missing the Mid-South. (WxBell)

The Thursday afternoon NAM model valid on Sunday also shows precipitation to our south, moving away and missing the Mid-South. Overall, we currently predict only flurries for the metro. (WxBell)

2017 will end, and 2018 will begin, on a stupid cold note with highs in the 20s Sunday, Monday, and possibly Tuesday. Lows will be well down into the teens both Monday and Tuesday. It'll be a time to remember the pets, plants, and pipes! It looks like we may get back above freezing (briefly) on Wednesday before another round of cold air arrives to end the week. Looking long-term, a more significant warm-up looks to be on the horizon heading into the first weekend of January. Let's all hope! Check the latest MWN Forecast anytime via the web or our mobile app. Links are below.

Erik Proseus
MWN Meteorologist

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