An early taste of summer! Also monitoring rain chances for #BSMF18

Mother Nature has outdone herself to finish up the month of April and begin May. Summer-like temps will be the main story line for this week with dry conditions expected through Thursday.

Today & Tomorrow

Currently, a surface high pressure system sits in Kentucky driving our clear weather and keeping all rain chances away.

12Z Surface Analysis displays a high pressure located over parts of the Ohio River Valley. This high pressure is driving our current weather pattern and aiding in the clear skies we will see today. (NOAA/WPC)

Highs today look to reach near average with temps expected to reach the 77° mark. With clear skies all day today continuing into the overnight hours, lows will fall to 57° tonight. Luckily, another rapid warm-up is expected for tomorrow. Mostly sunny skies will allow temps to reach into the 80s with a high of 82° for tomorrow.

Wednesday & Thursday

For those who have been patiently waiting for above average temps to return, they will finally be here Wednesday and Thursday. Ample amounts of low-level warm air advection will help to bring our temps to the above average point. Both days will be characterized by highs in the mid 80s and partly sunny skies. 

Dew point temps look to be in the low 60s both days, so you may get some of that sticky feeling if you are outside for long periods of time. Additionally, we may need to keep an eye on the winds both days as winds may come close to the 15 mph mark with gusts upwards of 25 mph. Overnight lows both nights will stay pretty warm with temps in the upper 60s. 

Looking Ahead to the Weekend

It's the first official weekend of May and it will be a very summer-like preview. Many events are ongoing this weekend including Memphis in May's Beale Street Music Festival. Whether you're planning to head down to Tom Lee Park or enjoying the weekend another way, temps will be around to just above average throughout the weekend. 

So what exactly is in-store for our Friday through Sunday period? Friday and early Saturday both have the possibility of some rain while Sunday appears to be rain-free. On Friday, temps look to reach into the low 80s. The semi-bad news for Friday is that there is the possibility of some scattered showers and thunderstorms associated with a weakening cold front moving through the area. The cold front may provide enough lift for some thunderstorm development; however, severe weather does not appear to be a concern at this point. Temps will remain fairly mild Friday night with overnight lows only dipping into the mid 60s. 

Some of Friday's showers may continue into the morning hours on Saturday.

GFS forecast precipitation loop from early Friday morning through midday on Saturday. (Tropical Tidbits)

Once the showers dissipate, Saturday afternoon lingering cloud coverage will leave us with mostly cloudy skies through the remainder of the day. Luckily, highs will stay in the upper 70s, so plenty of warmth for those with outdoor plans. 

Sunday appears to be the best day for this upcoming weekend. A surface high pressure looks to dominate much of the eastern U.S., keeping any rain chances out of our area. Along with our mostly sunny skies for the day, it will actually be pretty comfortable temperature wise as well. Highs in the upper 70s with dew point temperatures in the mid 50s will result in some nice, non-sticky weather for Sunday. 

Editor's Note: Similar to recent years, MWN will be on-site as the official weather partner for BSMF this weekend, doing our best to ward away the storms and keeping you and tens of thousands of your closest friends safe and comfortable! Keep up with the latest forecast information via the MWN mobile app leading up to, and during, the weekend events. Link to download is below. /EP

Caroline MacDonald
MWN Meteorologist Intern

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First dry weekend of 2018 enroute!

Editor's Note: This blog post is authored by MWN Meteorologist Intern Reggie Roakes, who is graduating with his Bachelor's Degree in Meteorology next week and will continue into a Master's program in the fall! Reggie has been a valued member of #TeamMWN since the start of the year and we welcome him into this expanded role !

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What's in store for the next seven days? Much better weather (at least into the start of next work week, so pay attention)!

Friday Night

A high pressure system centered over Texas has provided dry, pleasant conditions for Memphis Friday. That light wind this afternoon, combined with ample sunshine, has allowed for a fantastic afternoon. As we move into Friday evening/night, clear skies will take a temporary break: a weak low over the Great Lakes region will develop a weak front that will dive south. You can let go of that breath you're holding. We will mainly see passing clouds since the air here is a little to dry and won't be sufficient for any real rain threats, just an isolated stray shower is possible early tonight. Look for a low around 52.

This Weekend

This is the part we have all been waiting for: the first completely dry weekend of 2018!! So far this year, at some point on every weekend we have gotten rain; however, this weekend that will not be the case. Quickly following the effects from Friday night's weak low will be a ridge setting up over the central U.S. This will advect in dry air from the north/northwest on Saturday and Sunday. That means cool air will be pulled in from the north and our skies will remain clear. Lots of sun will warm that northerly wind, so grab the shades and the T-shirt! Looks for highs Saturday to be in the low 70's and Sunday in the upper 60's. Likewise, the lows for both Saturday and Sunday night will be in the mid to upper 40's.
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Simulated reflectivity and surface pressure Saturday night. Note the high pressure over the Great Lakes region that will pull cool, dry air south. (Tropical Tidbits)

Monday

I know what you're thinking, "We got a nice weekend, so now we are going to get rain." Well guess what, that's not the case...at least not yet. A building trough to the west at this stage of the forecast will start to nudge our friendly ridge eastward. This will start to shift our winds to a southerly flow by Tuesday. For Monday though, we will see winds more out of the east. That means that we will only be slightly warmer than the weekend with highs topping off in the mid 70's. Monday night, winds should finally start pulling warmer air from the south, so we will see a low in the mid 50's.

Upper level pressure pattern (at 500 mb, or 18,000 feet) for Monday morning shows troughs of low pressure in the east and west while a ridge of high pressure has formed over the Mississippi Valley, bringing warming temperatures and dry conditions. (Tropical Tidbits)

Tuesday

This is the part of the forecast everyone is waiting for - the 80's! Ample southerly flow with warm air advection (the movement of warm air into an area) from the inbound trough will crank the heat up Tuesday afternoon. We will see temps reach the low 80's, but this will be prior to the full force of the trough when warm air advection is greatest. Tuesday night, a few clouds start to form as moisture content over the area increases as we start to see more southerly flow. Increased clouds and the southern wind will limit our mercury drop Tuesday night and we only get lows in the low to mid 60's.

Wednesday

Rising motion formed from diverging winds aloft may start to feed the opportunity for a few showers to develop. The forecast at this point gets a little tricky. The low in the northern Great Lakes associated with this trough will weaken, leading to front stalling northwest of the Memphis area. The rain chances Wednesday and the remainder of the forecast will depend on where exactly this front stalls, so we will be updating our forecast as we get closer to the event. Despite increased cloud cover Wednesday, highs will top off near the low 80's. Wednesday night clouds will help insulate temperatures and keep our low around the mid 60's.

Thursday

Thursday is essentially a repeat from Wednesday. The amount of rain this day will depend on where exactly the front sets up, but for now chances look fairly low as it remains to our northwest. Northern Mississippi will remain drier, while those just north of Memphis could receive a few more showers or storms, so we will be watching this part of the forecast closely to nail down the exact details for it. Highs should still manage to get into the low 80's. Continued cloud cover Thursday night prevents a steep temperature drop with lows in the mid 60's.

Friday

And the trend continues... High pressure north of the boundary will start to nudge the stalled front southward, increasing our rain chances further for Friday, making this the mostly likely day of the 7-day forecast for scattered showers and afternoon thunderstorms. The 80's will be gone by this point in the forecast since scattered rain, combined with cloud cover, will help cool things off slightly. Expect highs to be in the mid 70's.

Looking ahead to May

Thoughts on May for now seems to be a slightly warmer trend, which will not be argued with. The first part of the forecast looks to be the possible trend for the month with ample opportunities for rain to continue. Maybe we can tolerate that though, if we can get the warmer weather to finally stick around.

NOAA's May temperature outlook for the U.S. indicates a higher probability of above average temperatures for the Mid-South. (NOAA/NWS)

Reggie Roakes
MWN Meteorologist Intern

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Temps Remain Below-Average for the Week, Periods of Clouds & Showers

Editor's Note: This is the first of what will likely be many blog posts authored by new MWN Meteorologist Intern Caroline MacDonald. We look forward to posting these more in-depth weather updates on a regular basis than we have of late. Caroline is just one part of that diabolical plan to keep you better informed on area weather! Please welcome her to MWN!

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I wish I could say that the rest of this week was going too be sunny and warm, but unfortunately Mother Nature won't allow me to. This week looks to be characterized by below-normal temps with plenty of clouds and some showers.

Scattered showers from earlier today will continue to move out through the overnight hours tonight. Temps will fall into the mid 50s overnight. Dew point temps in the low 50s and saturated grounds from today will leave prime conditions for overnight/early morning fog development. Fog development will depend on how the skies clear overnight. If our cloudy skies remain in place, expect patchy fog in some low-lying areas. If we are able to get more clearing, more widespread fog development will be possible. Any fog that develops should dissipate around sunrise.

Tuesday

The upper-level low that brought showers today will continue to hang around our area tomorrow, leaving cloudy skies behind. There is a slight chance of showers into the afternoon hours. Any shower that develops will be light and scattered in nature. These dreary conditions will keep temps in the 50s through the AM hours and the 60s into the afternoon. Expect high temps to be well below-average with highs near the mid 60s.

We will finally begin to see some clearing in the cloud coverage as we head into the evening hours tomorrow with temps falling into the mid 50s overnight.

Wednesday

Things look to start off pretty nice on Wednesday with some partly sunny skies. By the afternoon, another cold front will be knocking on our doorstep. Luckily we won't have to worry about temps dropping drastically with this front. High temps will remain in the upper 60s with overnight temps falling into the mid 50s. 

Along with this front will be some more scattered showers. Showers look to begin around / after the lunch hour and continue through the evening hours. 

NAM loop from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning shows off/on showers through both days. (Pivotal Weather)

While we will not see a lot of rainfall in terms of total accumulation, we will see enough that you may want to keep the umbrella handy for those sprinkles.

Thursday

Some early morning showers may linger from the night before, but skies will begin to clear as we move through the day. We may even get to see the sun, just maybe.

This clearing will help to propel highs once again into the upper 60s. Overall, Thursday looks to be the go-to day for the week for those outdoor evening plans if you have any. Partly cloudy skies will allow temps to fall into the low 50s overnight. 

Friday

Friday appears to be one of those good news and bad news types of days. The good news is we may get some more clearing, which will allow some partly sunny skies during the AM. The bad news is that by the afternoon, yet another cold front poses to move through. This will bring another bit of showers along with it. Regardless of the showers, temps will remain below-normal with highs topping off in the upper 60s. 

While there are several rounds of showers possible this week, there won't be heavy rainfall events nor any thunderstorms. Less than half an inch is expected now through early Saturday.

Weather Prediction Center's Precipitation Forecast now through early Saturday morning. (WeatherBell)

Caroline MacDonald
MWN Meteorologist Intern

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Spring struggling against the lingering forces of winter

Despite being past Tax Day, with most foliage blooming or budding or growing, late winter still seems to want to keep popping its head up like an annoying rodent from Whack-a-Mole.

The past couple of weeks have been evidence, given that we had an 80-degree day a week ago, only to be followed up 3 days later by a record cool day in the mid 40s and several recent mornings with wind chill factors and patchy frost. A persistent pattern featuring an upper level trough over the eastern U.S. is to blame. It also is responsible for a relatively slow start to severe weather season this spring. What does the near-future hold?

Friday and Saturday

For now, we're back in "warm-up" mode after some frosty areas early this morning. April sun and wind that has shifted to the east, rather than north, means temperatures climbing towards 70 today. Saturday will see an increase in clouds, but wind that shifts further around towards the south. Pair it with a morning low that is about 10 degrees warmer, and we should make it to 70 without much trouble. That is still several degrees below our mid-April average though. There is a low chance of some afternoon sprinkles, but overall your Saturday looks to be pretty pleasant for outdoor activities and spring festivals!

Surface map for Friday evening. The low pressure in the Central Rockies will move slowly our direction, dragging the associated precipitation this way, but not before Saturday night. (NWS/WPC)

Saturday night into Sunday

This is when spring rains make their return as weak low pressure moves slowly out of the southern plains and scoots by to our south. Since it will be to our south, with little in the way of instability feeding into the area, I expect we'll see rain and very little thunder. That rain arrives Saturday night (chances increase during the evening) with the wettest period late overnight into Sunday morning. However, scattered showers stick around most of Sunday as the low moves slowly by. It may not be a washout, but you can just pretend that it is as timing any short dry spells will be difficult. Total rainfall will likely end up in the 1-2" range by Sunday night. Temperatures will be below average, as expected on a rainy day, but not too cold - lows in the mid 50s and highs in the lower to mid 60s.

Forecast precipitation amounts through Monday morning from the NWS Weather Prediction Center.

The Severe Weather Outlook for Sunday from the Storm Prediction Center shows that Memphis will be on the edge of a "general" risk of thunderstorms. No severe weather is expected, and in fact, there is a low chance of any thunder at all.

Early next week

As the low slowly shifts east across the southeast U.S. Monday, we'll see "wrap-around" showers off and on Monday, but it will be drier than Sunday. Temperatures will be very similar to Sunday though, so look for 60s in the afternoon. We should catch a bit of a break Tuesday. I don't expect a ton of sun, but rain chances should only be about 20% as the low weakens and departs the region. There is no strong high pressure center replacing it though, thus the lingering clouds mixing with a bit of sun. Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer, maybe pushing 70 again. The mid-week will see another front push through on Wednesday, bringing yet another chance of scattered showers and highs near 70.

By Monday morning, the rainy low pressure center will be well to our southeast, but still close enough to bring a chance of some showers to the area. (NWS/WPC)

Looking ahead

The longer-range shows a dry day Thursday and another front on Friday, but temperatures that reach 70 degrees both days. Fortunately, there are no cold air masses behind any of these, so there is no frost or really cold mornings in the crystal ball. If all goes to plan, we should see things clear up in time for the last weekend in April. Long-range climate models are split on May, but I am thinking that temperatures will be a bit below normal to start the month, then closer to normal by mid to late May. By late May, "near normal" means mid 80s, so don't be surprised if we warm up fairly quickly once we get into May!

The NOAA May outlook indicates slightly above average odds of above normal temperatures for the month, hinging fairly tightly to the American climate models. (NOAA/CPC)

On the other hand, the European ensemble models forecast for the next 6 weeks (46 days) is for below normal temperatures. We'll see which solution wind this battle! (WxBell)

As always, you can get the latest forecasts for the next 7 days, as well as current conditions, StormView Radar, and StormWatch+ severe weather alerts all via the MemphisWeather.net app. Find it at the links below and follow us on social for routine updates.

Erik Proseus
MWN Meteorologist

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Follow MWN on Facebook and Twitter for routine updates and the latest info!
Complete MWN Forecast: MemphisWeather.net on the mobile web or via the MWN mobile app
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Update on tonight's severe storm threat

A strong spring cold front is moving towards the Mid-South, but it will take its sweet time, not arriving until Saturday afternoon. However, ahead of that, storms will form to our west later this afternoon and begin a slow march across Arkansas this evening. That is where the Storm Prediction Center has forecast the highest chance of severe weather, including large hail, damaging wind, and a few tornadoes.

Timing

As the storms move east overnight, they will encounter slightly more stable air, resulting in a general decrease in storm intensity, as well as organization into a squall line. The line will likely affect the metro between midnight and 4am, though a couple of high-resolution models favor a slightly earlier approach closer to 11pm. The good news for those who have evening plans, including the Friday Night Stripes event at the Liberty Bowl, is that the later time should allow those events to wrap up prior to the storm's arrival. However, there is a chance of showers this evening, so I'm not necessarily indicating it will be completely dry until the line hits.

The Memphis area is under an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of severe weather tonight, mainly after midnight. Damaging wind and very heavy rain are the primary threats.

Threats

While all modes of severe weather are possible to our west, where greater instability resides, as the line approaches, the primary threat shifts to the possibility of damaging wind. There is also an isolated tornado threat due to the magnitude of the wind with this system, but that threat drops off considerably as the line nears the Mississippi River. Finally, due to the copious amount of moisture in the atmosphere tonight and slow motion of the system, the storms and heavy rain that trails them could produce areas of flash flooding, particularly in the urban setting. Always be cautious of crossing water that covers a road in the dark. Rainfall totals by sunrise Saturday could be near 2-3" with up to an additional inch possible Saturday. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect through 1pm Saturday.

SPC-forecast probabilities of severe weather occurring within 25 miles: 5-10% chance of a tornado, 5% chance of large hail, and about a 45% chance of damaging wind. (SPC)

Prepare

Obviously with storms expected overnight, when many of you are already asleep, you need to have some way of getting warnings that will wake you up. NOAA Weather Radio works great and is recommended. We also highly recommend you check out StormWatch+ in the MemphisWeather.net mobile app. For about 1/3 of the cost of a weather radio, you get fully customizable, portable weather alerts that will wake you up only for the most severe storms. Visit app.memphisweather.net for more on the MWN mobile app, or simply activate StormWatch+ from the SW+ tab in your MWN app!

If you have plans to be out tonight, we recommend being where you have access to a safe place by about 11pm. Of course, we'll keep you updated on the latest timing and threats via our social media feeds, which you will find linked below.

Saturday

As for Saturday, because the system is moving so slowly, and the likelihood of a weak low pressure center forming and moving north along the front, there is a good chance of additional rain during the day. Models are somewhat split on the timing for Saturday, but my best educated guess says that lingering rain will occur into the morning, with a lull around mid-day, and then additional shower chances in the mid-to-late afternoon time period. In addition, the atmosphere is expected to destabilize again tomorrow afternoon, mainly east of Memphis, as the front finally moves through. Thus, a thunderstorm can't be completely ruled out, especially east of the city.

Areas east of the Mississippi River in the metro are under a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) of severe weather Saturday. The most likely location for any severe storms will be well to our south and east.. (SPC)

Dry and much cooler weather arrives on Sunday with clouds likely to linger as well. The dry trend looks to continue for most of next week with quickly moderating temperatures after Monday.

Erik Proseus
MWN Meteorologist

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Follow MWN on Facebook and Twitter for routine updates and the latest info!
Complete MWN Forecast: MemphisWeather.net on the mobile web or via the MWN app
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MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador

Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder

One big fly in the spring ointment - weekend rain

With the return of southerly wind today, we're finally starting to get a good taste of spring despite a cool start. With abundant sunshine in place, we are topping out near 70 degrees this afternoon. That trend continues as we head into the end of the week!

Thursday - Friday

The warming continues as high temperatures reach the upper 70s each day with mild lows in the 50s Thursday and 60s Friday. We'll still see a good deal of sunshine Thursday, but the clouds increase and thicken heading into Friday. The biggest issue will be the wind. That south wind gets mildly ferocious as gusts reach 30 mph each day. Trade-off for the nice temps I guess!

Friday Night - Saturday

Note the title of the blog. Here comes the fly (and it's a big one, like the kind that can scare large toddlers), just in time for a bunch of springtime outdoor activities across the city.

A slow-moving cold front pushes towards the Mid-South by Friday evening. With it, we can expect frog-stranglers and gully-washers, as well as some thunderstorms, to arrive Friday night. In fact, during the day Friday, severe weather is likely to our west (while we stay dry). The ETA for our rain is starting to narrow in on the late evening hours Friday. While a few showers are possible early in the evening (6-9pm), rain chances ramp up quickly as we get later into the evening (9-11pm), to the point that by the time we hit midnight, it's almost a certainty. Storms are also expected overnight Friday night. We're hopeful that the rain holds off for the Memphis Tiger football #FridayNightLights event at the Liberty Bowl Friday evening!

Forecast radar loop from mid-day Friday through Saturday evening from the Wednesday morning run of the NAM model. It thinks we'll get rain Friday night, a lull Saturday morning, then additional showers Saturday PM. (PivotalWx)

As for severe weather, I mentioned storms to our west Friday. As the system gets closer, the threat of severe storms declines. However, as of Wednesday morning, the Storm Prediction Center includes the Memphis metro in a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) of severe weather, mainly for damaging wind, Friday night. Areas west of the river are under a Slight Risk (level 2/5). We'll be watching this the next couple days for the potential of a shift in that risk, up or down.

By Saturday, there are a couple of trains of thought in the model data. The front will move through very slowly due to upper level wind basically paralleling the front, thus not providing much of a "push" for it to move east. There appears to be a secondary low pressure system that develops to our south and moves north up the front on Saturday. That low would provide the threat for either additional, or continuing, rainfall for at least parts of the day. I don't expect a completely dry day.

If you believe the GFS and NAM models ("Made in America," NAM shown above), we'll see a lull in the rain Saturday morning with an additional chance of afternoon and early evening showers as the low moves by to our east. If you believe the European model, which may or may not come with tariffs now, it is a little slower with its eastward push of moisture and lends itself to a wetter Saturday, though not deluges. Either way, it will probably be mild (upper 50s-60s) and damp.

Total rainfall will really depend on the speed of the front and the coverage of thunderstorms Friday night. As of early this morning, the NWS was fairly bullish with 3-5" over the area. More recent data suggests perhaps 1-3". Still time to figure that one out, but expect periods of heavy rain, especially overnight Friday night. The severe weather threat Saturday will have shifted to our southeast.

NWS forecast for rainfall Friday-Saturday. Later data will likely result in a downward trend from the NWS in the next forecast update. (NWS/WxBell)

SPC severe weather outlook for Saturday, as the threat of severe storms moves to our southeast.

Sunday and beyond

As this big weather system shifts to the east coast, Sunday will likely feature wrap-around clouds and gusty north wind, meaning a chilly day. Look for temperatures ranging from the mid 40s in the morning to mid 50s in the afternoon, plus that wind. Sun returns as we head back to work next week (because... Monday) and temperatures start to moderate once again. Highs rebound into the 70s by Tuesday with a slight chance of rain on Wednesday, but nothing like the weekend system. In other words, spring warmth is interrupted for a couple days by a rainmaker - typical for this time of year!

Erik Proseus
MWN Meteorologist

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Follow MWN on Facebook and Twitter for routine updates and the latest info!
Complete MWN Forecast: MemphisWeather.net on the mobile web or via the MWN app
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MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador

Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder

March 2018 Climate Data for Memphis, TN

March Climate Recap

As is typical for early spring in the Mid-South, temperatures fluctuated quite a bit in March, however the monthly average ended up right at average. No records were set despite have high temperatures that ranged from the mid 40s to upper 70s and lows that swung from the near 60 degrees to near freezing. There was one day (13th) with a sub-freezing low temperature (31 degrees). This would have marked the start of the 2018 growing season if it were not for another sub-freezing low in the first week of April!

The trend of heavy precipitation in February continued into the first week of March, as nearly an inch and a half of rain fell in the first five days of the month and the Mississippi River and its tributaries remained high. Much of the rest of the month was dry however, until the last few days when a weather system produced over two inches of rain (and nearly 50% of the total for the month) on the 28th.

Memphis International Airport, Memphis, TN

Temperature
Average temperature: 54.1 degrees (0.1 degrees above average)
Average high temperature: 63.6 degrees (0.3 degrees below average)
Average low temperature: 44.6 degrees (0.5 degrees above average)
Warmest temperature: 78 degrees (27th)
Coolest temperature: 31 degrees (13th)
Heating Degrees Days: 333 (25 below average)
Cooling Degree Days: 4 (13 below average)
Records set or tied: None
Comments: None

Precipitation
Monthly total: 4.44" (0.72" below average)
Days with measurable precipitation: 12
Wettest 24-hour period: 2.12" (28th)
Snowfall: 0.0" (0.4" below average)
Records set or tied: None
Comments: Two days recorded more than 0.5" and one day saw more than an inch of rain fall.

Miscellaneous
Peak wind: South/38 mph (27th)
Average wind: 9.7 mph
Average relative humidity: 64%
Average sky cover: 60%

Click here for a daily statistical recap for Memphis International Airport.

Cirrus Weather Solutions / MemphisWeather.net, Bartlett, TN

Temperature
Average temperature: 53.4 degrees
Average high temperature: 64.6 degrees
Average low temperature: 42.2 degrees
Warmest temperature: 79.9 degrees (27th)
Coolest temperature: 29.6 degrees (8th)
Comments: None

Precipitation
Monthly total: 4.06" (automated rain gauge), 4.54" (manual CoCoRaHS rain gauge)
Days with measurable precipitation: 13
Wettest date: 1.75" (28th) (via automated gauge)
Snowfall: None
Comments: None

Miscellaneous
Peak wind: Northwest/30 mph (6th)
Average relative humidity: 71%
Average barometric pressure: 30.05 in. Hg

Click here for a daily statistical recap for Bartlett, TN.

MWN Forecast Accuracy

MWN average temperature error: 2.58 degrees
MWN forecast temperatures within 2 degrees of actual: 59%
MWN average dewpoint error: 2.98 degrees
MWN forecast dewpoints within 2 degrees of actual: 53%

MWN's forecasts extend out five periods (2.5 days, or roughly 60 hours). Historical accuracy statistics can be found here.

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Complete MWN Forecast: MemphisWeather.net on the mobile web or via the MWN mobile app
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Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder

Saturday morning wintry mix??

Just a quick update to our blog post from last evening. My discussion on the front arriving tonight is still accurate. Rain is expected to develop soon and linger throughout the afternoon hours, fairly steady at times. The heaviest remains in north MS and our thunder chance is low. The front arrives around 10pm tonight and then things go south from there - including the mild air! Very gusty north wind will shove the 50s, and the 40s, well down into MS.

Then what?

An upper level disturbance will move through the region early Saturday morning, bringing another round of light precipitation. Most will fall as cold rain (and I do mean cold - temperatures will be in the 30s with a gusty north wind!). However, despite the metro staying above freezing in the mid 30s, the temperatures aloft will drop below freezing, meaning that some light sleet, or possibly a few snowflakes, could mix with the rain between about 7am-11am Saturday.

This very unwelcome early April wintry mix is most likely north of the TN/MS line. The surface temperature may drop to 32° as far south as Tipton County, so a bit of freezing rain is also possible during this period, say around Covington, but not expected further south. I expect temperatures to bottom out at 33-35° along the I-40 corridor. All precipitation that falls will be LIGHT. No model is forecasting more than 0.05" of precipitation during the morning hours, and some of that will be rain. With temperatures above freezing and amounts being very light, little if any impact is expected, other than seeing it fall and thinking... WTH.

Here are the bullet points:

What: Possible mix of light sleet or flurries mixing with rain
When: 7am-11am Saturday
How much: Not enough to cause any problems, even on bridges and overpasses
Temperatures: Lows of 33-35° around 8am. In the 30s all morning long.
How to react: IT'S APRIL 7TH! HOW DO YOU THINK?!? ;-) (Don't even consider that extra trip to the grocery...)

When does it warm up?

Not tomorrow. Highs in the mid 40s with a cold north wind. Sunday gets a little better (57°), but not before we all likely reach freezing Sunday morning. Cover the plants one last time. Monday and Tuesday will be in the low to mid 60s.  Wednesday we're back to normal at 70°. It gets warmer from there. Let's just get through the weekend.

Erik Proseus
MWN Meteorologist

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Follow MWN on Facebook and Twitter for routine updates and the latest info!
Complete MWN Forecast: MemphisWeather.net on the mobile web or via the MWN mobile app
Download our iPhone or Android apps, featuring StormWatch+ severe weather alerts!

MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador

Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder