Summer plays on, but some relief is in sight

Today is the first that many make their return to school. Despite the return to school, summer keeps trucking for the Mid-South for the next week. However, it looks like we may have some relief in the forecast. Like most good things, a cool down will come at a bit of a cost - rain (though with drought conditions developing, some may appreciate the chance for some of it).

Today (Monday)

A similar forecast to what we saw yesterday: HOT! High pressure remains locked in the Mid-South allowing for temperatures to swell to 93. Now that isn't always so bad, but with the humidity now back in full force, especially compared to last week, temperatures are feeling much warmer, near 100. If you jump over the river into Arkansas, heat indices will be even higher near 105, bringing a warranted Heat Advisory that will last until 7pm. With how warm things will be, there will be a lot of instability as we head into the afternoon. Just like yesterday, we will have to watch for any isolated pop-up showers and storms, which if they get to fully develop, could bringing some serious localized rain and a lot of lightning.

Moving into tonight, look for mainly clear skies and mild nighttime conditions. With the amount of moisture in the air at night now, temps do not cool as efficiently as they were last week, so we will see our low dipping only to 76 (sorry, no crisp feeling 60s).

Tuesday

Tuesday, at least during the day, will seem similar to yesterday and today, with yet another repeat and hot weather. Look for another high of 93, partly cloudy skies, and another shot at afternoon storms driven by the afternoon heat. The bigger change will come later in the evening, into Tuesday night. A low in the Ohio Valley will spark a front that will be diving south. The forcing from this front, combined with the warm, moist environment present in the Mid-South, will lead to organized showers and storm activity during the night. The current thinking on the timing for this will be after midnight, Tuesday night. Increasing clouds Tuesday night with the inbound front will continue to hold temperatures overnight in the mid 70s.

Wednesday

The front that comes in Tuesday night stalls out over the Memphis area Wednesday. This is going to lead to an increased chance of rain throughout the day. Overall, we will likely see a fair amount of showers and storms for Wednesday (which should bring some mixed feelings since some are really needing this rain to help alleviate the developing drought conditions, while others may not want the rain). That said, some could make it through this will little to no rain, while others get a fair amount. The good news for everyone: COOLER WEATHER! Increased cloud cover will bring some heat relief for a short period of time, so maybe a little rain isn't a totally bad thing. High of 88.

Wednesday night, the front remains stalled over the area, providing lift to keep overnight convection going; however, look for a decrease in rain chances with the lost of daytime heating. Cloud cover overnight will prevent any significant cooling, so plan on temps only dipping to the lower 70s.

Thursday

Look for a repeat Thursday with the front remaining stalled over the area. More organized showers and storms are expected. Cloud cover will again hold temperatures back to the mid-upper 80s. Convection will still remain scattered, so it will be another day where some could slide by and not catch any rain while others do.

Rain chances drop, but remain in place Thursday night with no sign of the front budging. And just like Wednesday night, temperatures will remain in the 70s with extra cloud cover.

Friday and the Weekend

Finally, by this part of the forecast, the front starts to weaken as high pressure slowly starts to build back to our west; however, it will continue to remain stalled over top of us. Each day will bring the chance for a few scattered showers and storms, but convection will be less widespread as what we will experience Wednesday and Thursday. The decrease in rain chances bring our temperatures back up slightly to the upper 80s. Sunday will see even lower rain chances (around 30%) as the front really weakens and start to be ejected out of the Mid-South, thanks to the building high to the west that will be starting to take its place. Lows each night, Friday-Sunday, will remain locked in the lower 70s.

Next Monday

Next Monday brings the return of summer, because of course we can't get it to go away that easily. Ridging provided by the building high starts to dry us out, bringing our high back to 90. We could still see an afternoon shower or storm, but mostly everyone will be remaining dry.

Reggie Roakes
MWN Meteorologist

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