October Climate Recap
October started with summer still firmly entrenched, with the first ten days of the month averaging 88 degrees for the high and 12 degrees above normal, the tide quickly turned with frontal passage on the 10th. Of the next 19 days, 17 were below normal, before a quick warm-up leading into Halloween. Record temperatures also reflected the huge temperature swing. The high temperature of 92 degrees on October 4th tied a record for the date, while the high of 50 degrees on the 16th was the coolest high temperature ever recorded on that date. So for the month, the temperature averaged just over 1 degree above normal. That warmth was driven less by the high temperature average (which was actually 0.2 degrees below normal) than the overnight lows, which averaged 2.7 degrees above normal).Precipitation was about average in October (0.39" shy of normal). There was no precipitation during the early month heat. However, starting with the front on the 10th, there were 10 days of the next 21 that recorded rainfall, landing that period (October 10-31) in the top 20% wettest on record despite only one day nearing an inch (Halloween - 0.99"). There was no severe weather in the metro in October. The only Severe Thunderstorm or Tornado Warning issued by the National Weather Service in Memphis for the month was a Tornado Warning on Halloween evening for the Jackson, TN area.
Memphis International Airport, Memphis, TN
Average temperature: 65.3 degrees (1.2 degrees above average)
Average high temperature: 74.2 degrees (0.2 degrees below average)
Average low temperature: 56.5 degrees (2.7 degrees above average)
Warmest temperature: 92 degrees (4th)
Coolest temperature: 39 degrees (22nd)
Heating Degrees Days: 139 (19 above average)
Cooling Degree Days: 157 (65 above average)
Records set or tied: Record high - 92 degrees (4th). Record cool high (or low maximum) - 50 degrees (16th).
Comments: Four days recorded high temperatures at or above 90 degrees. Typically a 90-degree day is encountered in October once every 3.3 years.
Precipitation
Monthly total: 3.59" (0.39" below average)
Days with measurable precipitation: 10 (2.5 days above average)
Wettest 24-hour period: 0.99" (31st)
Snowfall: 0.0"
Records set or tied: None
Comments: Three days recorded more than 0.5" of rain.
Miscellaneous
Peak wind: South/40 mph (31st)
Average wind: 7.5 mph
Average relative humidity: 73%
Average sky cover: 50%
Click here for a daily statistical recap for Memphis International Airport.
Cirrus Weather Solutions / MemphisWeather.net, Bartlett, TN
Average temperature: 63.3 degrees
Average high temperature: 74.9 degrees
Average low temperature: 53.3 degrees
Warmest temperature: 92.5 degrees (5th)
Coolest temperature: 34.3 degrees (22nd)
Comments: None.
Precipitation
Monthly total: 3.82" (automated rain gauge), 4.63" (manual CoCoRaHS rain gauge)
Days with measurable precipitation: 10
Wettest date: 1.04" (31st) (via automated gauge)
Snowfall: None
Comments: None
Miscellaneous
Peak wind: South/19 mph (30th)
Average relative humidity: 81%
Average barometric pressure: 30.08 in. Hg
MWN Forecast Accuracy
MWN average temperature error: 2.05 degreesMWN forecast temperatures within 2 degrees of actual: NA
MWN average dewpoint error: NA
MWN forecast dewpoints within 2 degrees of actual: NA
MWN's forecasts extend out five periods (2.5 days, or roughly 60 hours). Historical accuracy statistics can be found here.
Climate Outlook - November
The November climate outlook for the United State from the Climate Prediction Center is shown below. Temperatures are forecast to be below normal for much of the Mississippi and Missouri River Valleys into the southern plains. For Memphis, odds of below normal temperatures in November are 40%, near normal 33% and above normal 27%. Memphis typically averages just over 53° degrees for the month of November.
A wet November is forecast for much of the United States east of the Rocky Mountains. For Memphis, odds of above normal precipitation in November are 54%, near normal 33% and below normal just 13%. November averages about 5.5" of rain in Memphis.
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