Wet & windy Thursday; an early look at New Year's forecast

It's crazy to think that Christmas has already come and gone for the 2018 year. All eyes are now on New Year's Eve and New Year's Day; we are almost to 2019 folks! For the last few days of 2018, we will experience some pretty dreary conditions unfortunately. Maybe Mother Nature is sad to see 2018 go? Regardless, clouds continue to spread across the Mid-South today with these clouds expected to hang around over the next few days.

Visible satellite imagery loop from today around 12:30 PM until 1:30 PM. (College of DuPage; GOES 16)

By Friday, we will get a brief break from the dreariness before more clouds arrive Saturday into Sunday. New Year's Day looks pretty pleasant, but we may have to deal with more rain on New Year's Eve first. But don't worry - we've got you covered!

Today

While we had a few scattered showers move through the metro area this morning, the majority of us have stayed dry so far. Cloudy skies will continue through the remainder of the day with highs climbing to near 59. 

We will begin to see a pattern shift late this evening as winds begin to increase as well as our rain chances. As for winds, all of the Memphis area is included in a Wind Advisory from midnight tonight through 6 PM tomorrow. What does this mean? This means that wind is expected to be upwards of 20+ mph with gusts into 30s likely. If you have any loose outdoor decorations, I would make sure they are secured to the ground before you head to bed tonight.

As for our rain chances, expect for scattered showers to begin developing after 10 PM, with an increasing chance through the rest of the overnight hours. 

HRRR loop now through 6 AM tomorrow shows scattered showers developing just before midnight and moving through much of the Mid-South by the early morning hours. (WeatherBell)

Thursday

Tomorrow looks to be characterized by windy and wet conditions. Highs will reach an unseasonably warm 65 degrees by the afternoon. Expect rain to hang around through the majority of the day with some late morning/early afternoon thunderstorms being possible. While we could see a few thunderstorms, widespread severe weather is not expected. Once again, it will be pretty windy tomorrow. Southerly winds will continue around 25 mph with gusts upwards of 35 mph, particularly in the morning. 

Winds should begin to calm down by the evening hours and showers should become more scattered in the evening as well. Temps will fall to 47 overnight. 

Friday

After some dreary conditions, we will get a nice break from the wind and rain on Friday. Mostly sunny conditions are expected throughout the day with highs near 58. Overall, it will be a very nice and pleasant day. 

Weekend at a glance

Periods of cloudiness and periods of brief sunshine will dominate this upcoming weekend with highs much cooler - remaining in the upper 40s both days. We could see some light rain both days as well, although the daytime should remain dry. If we do see some rain, it will primarily develop in the evening to overnight hours both days. Overnight, temps will dip down into the mid 30s, but no worries - we aren't expecting any winter shenanigans at this time.

A quick look at New Year's Eve and Day

Lots of New Year's festivities will be taking place both Monday and Tuesday, as well as fans coming into town for the Liberty Bowl. For those of you already thinking of what to pack/what to wear for New Year's Eve activities, it looks like it could be wet for a good portion of the daytime hours. Highs will reach near 50. A layered approach with the poncho on top will be best at the football game!

Luckily for those venturing out in the evening, showers should *hopefully* clear out into the evening hours. While we can't make any promises this far out, models do currently indicate that things should dry out for the Mid-South by midnight. Temps will likely be in the 30s by midnight, so you'll definitely want to bundle up if you are planning on heading downtown for New Year's Eve festivities.  Keep those fingers crossed for dry weather at midnight folks!

On Tuesday, clouds will clear throughout the day leaving behind dry conditions and highs in the mid 40s. For the first few days of 2019, temps will remain a few degrees below average. Can you believe it is already almost 2019? 

Caroline MacDonald
MWN Meteorologist

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