MWN Blog: Goodbye cold weather! Hello rain.

As most probably noticed today, it was a chilly start but we made a dramatic warm up this afternoon, bringing our highs back into the 50s. The good news is, we are going to stay near or above average temperature wise. The downfall? We have numerous shots at rain coming up over the next week, so we are breaking those chances down in tonight's blog!

Tonight and tomorrow

Light, isolated showers move in tonight with a weak trough. Source: WeatherBell

The clear and happy weather we experienced today fades away overnight tonight. A weak trough dives in from our northwest. Along with it comes increasing clouds and a few very isolated showers that will move in after midnight. Those increasing clouds will serve as a blanket for the Mid-South and help hold in today's warmth. Helping those clouds out will also be a southerly wind pulling in warmer air from the south. These to two factors together will help keep us out of the 30s and allow temperatures to only drop to 42°.

Tomorrow will start with some of those light showers in the AM; however, they will be out of the Mid-South by lunchtime at the latest. Clouds will be a different story and will hang around throughout the day. Temps will be very nice despite the rain, as we warm to 55°. Also, no worries! There isn't cold air behind tomorrow's system. By tomorrow night, clouds will start to break up as we drop to 43°.

This Weekend

If you are wanting to get any outdoors time this weekend, Saturday is a good day to do it! Temps will be very nice as we get lined up in the warm sector of a frontal system that starts to bring another chance of showers on Sunday. That said, Saturday we warm up into the lower 60s with partly sunny skies. Saturday night, clouds build as we introduce a very slight chance for a shower. Temps drop to only the lower 50s: NICE!

On Sunday, that frontal system brings the chance for a few stray showers during the day as ample moisture from the Gulf by this point will feed smaller convective showers. This will be far from a wash-out, though. Sunday we get even warmer, into the mid 60s. Even better, we only drop to the upper 50s overnight, meaning you can ditch all those blankets you had to bust out this past week for the wicked cool down.

GEFS (GFS Ensemble), as well as all other models, show that all our rainmaker for this weekend won't be anywhere near a wash-out. The probability of rainfall exceeding 0.5in. is zero for the Mid-South. Source: WeatherBell.

Monday and Tuesday

As if Mondays couldn't get any worse, this coming Monday brings increasing rain chances from Sunday as the initial frontal system pushes eastward and another developing one takes its place. This one's low pressure center will be situated further south, meaning that it will have more force/pull behind it. Rain chances increase throughout your Monday with what looks to be scattered showers until late that night into Tuesday. The best part about Monday is that we will be warming into the lower 70s with such ample southerly flow. Monday night, we drop down again only into the upper 50s.

Tuesday gets a little more difficult with the current model spread. The GFS model thinks that the front moves through, bringing some rumbles of thunder in the AM, then just remaining cloudy and gloomy for the remainder of the day. The European model thinks that the first front comes through in the AM, then quickly followed by another low developing behind the front (the GFS delays this low formation until Wednesday, and is weaker than the European model). This newly developing low could bring a secondary shot for rain late Tuesday and into Wednesday, and even bring the chance for a few storms into Wednesday. For now, we are going to conform to a slightly more European look and forecast the possibility storms for Tuesday morning, followed by a brief period of time with less precipitation, then that secondary low brings more rain into Wednesday.

Obviously we will keep an eye on how strong storms could be during this time period and keep you updated. Regardless of the rain, temperatures look nice at least, as they remain near 70 during the day and only drop to the mid 50s at night.

Wednesday and beyond

The Climate Prediction Center highlights the surge of colder air that is to come behind Thursday/Friday's rain. Below average temperatures seep into the area during the second week of February.

On Wednesday, models catch back up into semi-agreement that the low that forms back behind Tuesday's front will quickly move northeast, stretching a front out across a large portion of the U.S. that remains stationary over the Mid-South into next Friday. This front will lead to a few storms early to mid-day Wednesday, followed by decent rain chances from Wednesday into Thursday. With the front comes slightly cooler weather as we climb to the mid 60s (still well above average for early February). That night, models indicate that a much colder airmass dives south as the front pushes to our south.

We'll be watching the pattern carefully in case there is lingering moisture behind the front. This scenario has, in the past, produced a better chance of wintry precipitation than we have had lately with cold air chasing the moisture out of the area. That said, we are forecasting a cold rain for now and will continue to monitor.

Keep updated on the latest trends on our social media channels, and remember you can use the MWN app to check radar and the latest forecast anytime!

Reggie Roakes
MWN Meteorologist

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