Spring conditions are in full-swing, showers & strong t'storms Saturday

How nice have the past few days been? I know I can't speak for everyone, but I have really enjoyed the sunshine and warmer temps! Unfortunately, we do have two rounds of showers and thunderstorms over the next few days that won't be as pleasant. The first round, Thursday evening, will consist of mostly scattered showers and non-severe thunderstorms. The second round, on Saturday, we could see a few periods of heavy rainfall with strong to severe thunderstorms. Luckily, we do have a pleasant break between these two rounds on Friday, so be sure to take it all in while you can!

Rest of today

Following a beautiful day, conditions will remain pleasant this evening. Temps will slowly fall back into the 70s before falling to near 65 overnight. 

Before heading to bed this evening, you may want to secure any lose objects in your yard. Winds will continue to increase tonight into tomorrow with winds around 17 mph and gusts upwards of 25 mph expected. 

Thursday

Tomorrow won't be quite as nice as today, but still pretty close through the first half if you ask me. We will begin to see a few more clouds overhead throughout the day, with even more clouds expected to move in during the afternoon hours. This won't stop our temps though, as highs are once again expected to reach into the low 80s. Additionally, you can expect for some pretty windy conditions. Winds are expected to be in the 20 mph range with gusts upwards of 40 mph. 

By the evening hours tomorrow, a line of showers and thunderstorms will be knocking on our doorstep. We should make it through much of the afternoon and maybe even the early evening hours before showers begin to reach our area. Showers and thunderstorms will continue into the overnight hours, before moving out early Friday morning. While thunderstorms are possible, we are not expecting any widespread severe weather with this particular line of showers. 

The Weather Prediction Center's Fronts and Pressures Forecast shows a deep low pressure over the Great Plains. While bringing snow to those up north, a cold front associated with this front will bring some showers and t'storms through the Mid-South. (NOAA/WPC)

Friday

Thursday night's cold front passage will provide cooler and more pleasant temperatures for our Friday. Highs are only expected to reach to near 71, which is right around normal for mid-April. Partly sunny conditions can be expected with winds calming down compared to Thursday. Overall, take advantage of the weather on Friday, because Saturday does not look as pretty. 

Saturday

Welcome to April folks. Whether you are new to the south or not, April is generally when the southeastern U.S. begins to see the most severe weather activity. On Saturday, a low pressure system will begin to strength as it moves through Texas and eventually to our north. 

The Weather Prediction Center's front forecast map for early Sunday AM shows a well-defined low pressure system moving up into the Midwestern U.S. (NOAA/SPC)

So when is it going to start raining and how bad is it going to get? 

At this point, Saturday is still four days away. A lot can go wrong or right in a forecast in four days. With what we know right now, Saturday does not look like the day to be having an outdoor BBQ. Scattered showers are expected to begin in the AM hours. Luckily, any type of thunderstorm activity should hold off until the afternoon hours. After lunchtime, scattered showers will remain in the area with some thunderstorms beginning to develop. 

By the evening hours on Saturday and into the overnight hours, this is when the heaviest showers and possible strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to move through. Exact timing is still a question for this event and will need to be further refined in the coming days. 

A GFS loop from late Friday night through Sunday afternoon shows a decent line of showers and thunderstorms moving through the Mid-South Saturday evening into the overnight hours. (Tropical Tidbits)

As for severe weather, we are right on the bubble of the Day 4 outlook by the Storm Prediction Center. This is still a few days away, but definitely something to keep an eye on over the next few days. If you have outdoor plans on Saturday, I would go ahead and make sure you have a rain plan in place, especially if these plans are in the afternoon or evening.

The Storm Prediction Center currently has a 15% and 30% probability for severe weather in portions of the southeast. The Memphis (black X) is right on the border of the 15%. (NOAA/SPC)

Sunday into next week

Much cooler conditions are expected on Sunday as showers drift out of our area. Any remaining showers on Sunday morning and afternoon will be scattered and light. Models do disagree as to when showers will move out exactly, but we do expect showers to clear sometime in the afternoon (some models think earlier!). Highs will only reach the lower 60s, so you may want to find a light jacket for the day.

Looking into the rest of next week, Monday and Tuesday things appear to dry out with nothing but sunny skies expected on both days. Temps will remain pleasant and in the 70s. By mid-week, another cold front will be knocking on our doorstep introducing showers and t'storm chances. Since that's about a week away, I will leave it at that; let's focus on this week's rain chances first.

Caroline MacDonald
MWN Meteorologist

----
Follow MWN on Facebook and Twitter for routine updates and the latest info!
Complete MWN Forecast: MemphisWeather.net on the mobile web or via the MWN mobile app
Download our iPhone or Android apps, featuring StormWatch+ severe weather alerts!

MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador

Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder