A short dry spell, then more wet weather ahead

It's been a wet few days across the Mid-South, but today the sun is back out and very pleasant weather is making for a great end to the weekend. Yours truly has been on-site at Beale Street Music Festival warding away the lightning and making sure the organizers and operations personnel have the very latest weather forecast information and radar updates. The beautiful weather today has allowed for a bit of a reprieve after the first couple of days!

The meteorologist's setup for Memphis in May, which provides a location to monitor all forms of inclement weather and keep key operations personnel advised. The goal is to provide a safe environment so that patrons can enjoy their experience! The emoji tablecloth is just a bonus. :-)

It's not all work and no play though...

Not weather-related, but pretty cool to see Miley drop into #BSMF19 and sing "Walking in Memphis" with Marc Cohn, courtesy of @Facebook. #MoreTogether pic.twitter.com/3oROOGVnNK

— MemphisWeather.net (@memphisweather1) May 5, 2019

Early week - dry and warming

Looking ahead, the dry weather will last a couple more days, though as high pressure moves east, wind switches to the south and temperatures warm back into the lower 80s Monday and mid 80s Tuesday. We'll also have a good deal of sunshine Monday with high clouds advancing over the area Tuesday ahead of the next upper level system.

Monday's weather map from the NWS shows high pressure over the Mid-Atlantic extending its influence into the Mid-South. South wind will wrap around it, allowing temperatures to warm into the 80s. (NOAA/NWS) 

Wednesday

The mid-week period features the arrival of our next weather-maker with scattered afternoon thunderstorms on Wednesday as an upper level trough moves into the mid-portion of the country and flow turns to the southwest, ushering in more upper level moisture and muggier air at the surface. Wind becomes a bit gustier from the south as well, helping to push temperatures up to 80 degrees despite the cloud cover and rain chances. By Wednesday night, a surface front moves a bit closer and rain chances likely increase further.

Thursday

The cold front is poised to swing through the region, bringing a round of thunderstorms, a few of which could be severe. The Storm Prediction Center has outlined a large area ahead of the front, including the Mid-South, for a chance of severe storms. It's too early to get into detail, especially as fronts sometimes have a tendency to move more slowly than originally forecast as we head into the warmer months of the year. At a minimum, plan on a wet day with warm, muggy air in place.

The Storm Prediction Center has outlined a large area from the southern Great Lakes to southeast TX for possible severe storms on Thursday. We'll need to monitor this closely as the event gets closer - forecast refinements are likely. (SPC)

Friday into the weekend

If models are correct, the front will drop to the south of the Memphis area, which should usher in cooler temperatures and push thunder chances to the south Friday. Showers are still possible, but for now, we expect lower rain chances with highs near 70 rather than 80.

Models are indicating that a low pressure system could ride along the front to our south on Saturday, bringing another round of rainfall, but this time in cooler air than Thursday, so thunder should be minimal, but rain could potentially just heavy. We're crossing our fingers for drier weather to end the weekend once again! However, even the week 2 outlook indicates a chance of above normal precipitation potentially continuing into mid-May.

The NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) indicates above normal rainfall could continue into the middle of May, according to their 8-14 day precipitation outlook valid May 13-19. (NOAA/CPC via Pivotal Wx)

An intelligent blend of various computer models produces the temperatures above for the coming 10 days. Once the front arrives late in the week, cooler weather also moves in. Until then, looking for warming temps! (WeatherModels.com)

Erik Proseus
MWN Meteorologist

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