Another round of storms... more to come after tonight?

As I type, the Memphis metro is under a Severe Thunderstorm Watch with yet another in a recent string of mesoscale convective systems (MCS) poised to affect the region. This just a day after the final power restorations were made from the Wednesday night storms. Let's hope we don't have a repeat of the storm that brought 60-70 mph wind and 40K MLGW customers that lost power!

Tonight

Clearly, the impending storm threat is of greatest concern. For multiple reasons, I don't suspect this will be as bad as Wednesday night - chiefly a slightly less "loaded" atmosphere (though still plenty of instability to support strong to severe storms) and the "angle of attack" of the current MCS. In other words, it's apex is headed well to our north, leaving us with storms that form on an outflow boundary pushing out ahead of the system to the southeast. While that could mean the storms last a little longer in the metro as they stretch from northeast to southeast, they likely won't be quite as powerful. However, they could still be quite strong with damaging wind gusts to 50-60 mph the primary threat.

Severe weather information as of 3:00pm. See our social media feeds for updated info.

Please see our social media feeds (linked at the bottom of this post) for the latest information. This blog will not provide regular updates or hyper-detailed info. Just plan on staying weather aware through the late afternoon and evening hours and have a backup plan if you have any outdoor plans after 5pm.

Monday

Rain could continue off and on Sunday night into early Monday. Any lingering showers should depart the area by mid-day Monday, if they last that long. With the cold front not pushing all the way through the metro, some stickiness will linger, but it won't be as humid as this weekend has been. In addition, expect temperatures to remain below normal Monday with highs in the mid 80s.

Tuesday-Friday

The atmosphere returns to a summer-like setup with temperatures climbing back to the upper 80s to near 90, dewpoints in the 70 degree range, and daily (mainly afternoon and evening) thunderstorm chances. No major system look to affect the area, but the summer heat and humidity, along with outflows from any previous storms, could combine to bring scattered showers and thunderstorms each day. Any storms that form in the heat of the day could pose a risk for localized heavy downpours and strong wind gusts from downbursts.

Hopefully none of these is like the linear convective systems we have seen produce strong wind the past several days!

Erik Proseus
MWN Meteorologist

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