Summer 2019 just won't give up

A few weeks ago, it looked like we might be starting to see a reprieve from summer conditions as we headed into September. It seemed like a good forecast at the time! Meanwhile, here we are in the second week of September dealing with another string of mid 90s temperatures. In fact, Monday's high temperature of 98 degrees was the warmest of the summer - or last summer for that matter! What can we expect in the week or so to come? Glad you asked...

Mid-week

We might end up with a bit of an unexpected reprieve today - thanks to a persistent mid-level cloud deck - as temperatures sit in the mid 80s just after the lunch hour. The clouds are slowly lifting to the north and we should end up with some afternoon sunshine that will warm things up pretty quickly. But there might not be enough daylight at that point to make it much over 90. We'll take it!

The sun returns Wednesday and Thursday with mid-summer-like high pressure building at the upper levels. That will warm the low levels back up to the mid 90s for mid-week with almost no rain chance. It's been a long time since we've had meaningful rainfall and that dry ground is contributing to warmer temperatures! Dewpoints will run near 70 degrees, which is humid, but not intolerable. That will mean heat indices likely peak in the 100-105 degree range. Keep that in mind for any outdoor activities!

This weekend

By this weekend, the upper level ridge of high pressure starts to break down a bit, but hot weather continues, abating just a bit as we get towards the end of the weekend. It still looks mainly dry, though a stray shower can't be ruled out as the high weakens a touch.  Look for highs in the mid 90s through Saturday then a bit cooler Sunday.

Early next week

Unfortunately, there are no big cold fronts sitting on our front door waiting to push through, but with high pressure loosening its grip just a bit, a front will likely stall out near our area. There also could be a subtropical or tropical wave near the Gulf coast early next week that could have an influence on our weather pattern early next week. We'll look for highs near 90 degrees with a measure of humidity and mainly afternoon rain chances. Speaking of rain, it's certainly gotten dry the past couple weeks after an overall wet summer hasn't it??

The European model ensemble (51 "runs" of the European model with slightly different parameter sets) predicts mid 90s temperatures into this weekend, then a general downward trend next week. Average highs and lows for each day are represented by the red and blue solid lines, respectively. (WeatherModels.com)

Unfortunately, even the longer-range outlooks still paint our area with a strong chance of above normal temperatures. The only good news is that those "average temperatures" cool a fair amount during September, so mid to upper 80s could be above normal within a week or so. Hang on folks! Fall will be here soon!

The Climate Prediction Center forecasts a high likelihood (60%+) of above normal temperatures across the Mid-South for the period September 17-23.

Erik Proseus
MWN Meteorologist

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