MWN Blog: Cold air is knocking on our door! How cold will it get and how long will it last?

With Halloween now in our rear-view mirror we are moving into more "fall-like" conditions. Over the last week we've had below-normal temperatures, but very pleasant conditions overall. Temperatures have stayed between the mid 50s and mid 60s for the highs, while lows have stayed between the 30s and 40s.

Over the next week we will see another chance or two of rain, with below normal temperatures draped over most of the area. Thursday we are expecting a cold front to come through and bring cold temperatures to the region for the next week or so. Friday morning could be bitter cold with highs only expected to get into the mid 40s. Fortunately for us the temperatures are expected to rise until late Sunday. Monday we could see some rain showers that will need to be monitored carefully as the cold air pours in again Monday evening. After the front passes, we will see high pressure build back in, bringing more cold air with it for the foreseeable future.

Thursday through Saturday

The rain is expected to start around midnight Thursday with the heaviest during morning commute hours. Temperatures are expected to drop from the mid 50s early Thursday all the way down to the mid 30s before Friday comes around. A cold front will bring winds that will be sustained from 15-20 mph, with gusts close to 30 mph. Expect much cooler conditions on your way home tomorrow than when you leave for work or school in the morning!

Early Friday morning temperatures are expected to drop to close to 30 due to the cold front bringing arctic air to the region. Wind chills Friday morning could be as low as 20 - the coldest air of the fall to this point! Even though Friday will be sunny it will unfortunately be very chilly due to a northerly wind component sustained at around 10 mph, and temperatures only expected to reach the mid 40s. Make sure you bundle up if you are attending a sporting event Friday evening! Saturday morning will again be very cold with lows expected to be around 30 once again, with wind chills in the mid 20s. Good news though is that the wind should start to shift towards more of a southerly component, bringing highs for Saturday to the mid 50s.

The Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF), or total rainfall from Thursday through late Saturday, shows rain total expected to be from one-quarter of an inch to about half an inch. All of that should fall in the next 24 hours. (WPC)

Sunday through Tuesday

Sunday we are expecting a pleasant day with highs expected to be in the lower 60s and maybe some cloud cover moving in late ahead of our next weather system. Monday morning temperatures should stay in the 40s, while daytime highs are only expected to hit around 50. Rain showers are a decent chance on Monday with a small chance of s*** showers on the backside of the system. We'll keep a close eye on it, but aren't ready to commit to anything this far out. Just know that after the cold front moves through it will bring with it yet another burst of cold arctic air. This cold air will be accompanied by a large dome of high pressure leading to the possibility of it staying with us for an extended period of time.

Monday evening temperatures are expected to sharply drop until Tuesday morning where lows could get all the way down to the low 20s! A hard freeze is likely and it may get cold enough to drip faucets Monday night. Tuesday should be cold and mostly sunny with a high only around 40 - more typical of the dead of winter than November! Tuesday evening temperatures should drop sharply again as we move into Wednesday. Wednesday morning lows will again be in the mid 20s due to the cold air over the region. The cold temperatures are expected to stay with us per the Climate Prediction Center's (CPC) latest outlook (more details below).

The expected surface map Tuesday morning shows a strong dome of high pressure centered over southeastern Nebraska, influencing our area, bringing cold air. (WPC)

Peeking into Week 2

Over the week from November 14th to November 20th, the CPC outlook shows we will likely continue to deal with below average temperatures. A dome of high pressure is expected to park over the area bringing with it cold arctic air. This had been further supported by most models agreeing that there will be a dome of cold, high pressure over the most of the central and eastern U.S. for the middle part of November. It appears we will probably stay below average through the first half of November, but will that change in the latter half of November, or will persistence prevail? To be determined...

Temperature departure outlook (relative to normal) for November 14-20 indicates that much of U.S east of the Rockies will be cooler than normal. (CPC)

Max Magness
MWN Meteorologist Intern

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