Spring-like weather gives way to rain and a return of cold air

Happy Groundhog Day! Phil did NOT see his shadow, so according to him we will be seeing an early spring! (With a track record of 40% over the past decade, we'll see!) It definitely felt spring-like today with plenty of sunshine and highs around 70! Sadly, this will be our last sunny day for a while. Clouds return Monday with rain chances arriving Monday night and sticking around much of the week. Our highest rain chances will be Tuesday and Wednesday as our next cold front moves through the southeast. Cool temperatures follow behind it dropping highs back into the 40s starting Wednesday.

Monday through Wednesday

A steady south to southwest wind throughout the day on Sunday and into Monday will allow for warm moist air to be advected north from the Gulf of Mexico. With this increased moisture, clouds and rain chances return. Most of the day on Monday should be dry but as more energy moves over our area, showers become more likely later in the evening. Despite the soggy appearance, afternoon highs will still be well above average in the upper 60s. Overnight temperatures will only fall into the upper 50s. The persistent cloud cover will help hold in a lot of the heat from the day. Rain chances increase overnight as the southerly wind continues pushing moisture our way, making it feel very muggy.

Tuesday morning will continue this pattern with scattered showers across the area for most of the day. Temperatures that afternoon will warm into the mid to upper 60s once again. While most of the rain on Tuesday will be driven by the Gulf moisture, the story changes slightly as we head into the evening. A low pressure system will move by to our northwest, dragging a cold front along with it. This front will lead to more shower and storm activity overnight Tuesday.

The GFS model showing surface temperatures at 6pm Tuesday in the mid 60s. (WxBell)

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a severe weather outlook for our area for Tuesday night. This puts Memphis just out of the Slight (2/5) Risk. Most of the storms will occur Tuesday night. This system's severe threat is very low; however, a few thunderstorms could become strong to severe. An organized line is not expected for this event. These storms will form along the front and be very messy. The window for the severe activity will be confined to primarily Tuesday evening as cold air fills in quickly behind it.

Severe Weather Outlook for Tuesday 02/04/20. Memphis is in a Marginal (level 1/5) Risk. (NOAA/SPC)

Shower activity will continue throughout the day on Wednesday with a few rumbles of thunder possible. Cold air behind the front will quickly push into the area eliminating any severe threat for Wednesday. Since the front is moving through overnight on Tuesday, it is very likely that our high for Wednesday will occur in the morning. Temperatures will likely be in the mid 40s around lunch time and steadily fall into the upper 30s throughout the afternoon. Sadly clouds and cold showers stick around throughout the evening making Wednesday fairly dreary.

The GFS model showing surface temperatures at 3pm Wednesday near 40 in the metro. (WxBell)

Thursday through Sunday

Clouds continue throughout most of the day on Thursday with a chance at a passing shower. Thursday brings below average temperatures back to our area with afternoon highs only in the mid 40s. Clouds begin to clear out overnight with lows in the upper 30s giving you a chilly start to your Friday. By the afternoon, skies will be a mix of sun and clouds with temperatures near 50. Thankfully squeezing out a cool but pleasant end to the work week. Next weekend looks very seasonable temperature wise. Saturday and Sunday with have lows in the upper 30s with afternoon highs in the low 50s. While much of the weekend will be partly sunny, a few isolated showers cannot be ruled out.

Allison Paige
MWN Meteorologist Intern

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