A springtime pattern means several of storms in the next week

Rest of Today into Thursday

A dreary start to our Hump Day. Clouds have been on the increase today as a warm front continues to push north from the Gulf of Mexico. This will turn the winds more southerly giving us a very breezy afternoon with gusts up to 25-30 mph by tonight. Southerly wind will increase our moisture allowing for scattered showers to move in as we head into the evening time.

A low-pressure system will move eastward through the southeast bringing a cold front with showers and storms during the overnight hours. These storms may be on the stronger side with gusty winds, possible hail, and heavy downpours, but thankfully the greatest chance for severe weather will remain to the south of the metro area where more humid and unstable air will reside. Our greatest risk for a strong storm appears to be in the midnight timeframe, plus or minus an hour or two.

Behind the storms, showers will linger into Thursday morning as the low pressure system itself moves over. The additional cloud cover and continued breezy southwest wind will keep our lows fairly warm and muggy in the lower 60s. As the cold front moves on, winds will shift to a more westerly pattern but remain strong with gusts up to 30-35 mph into the afternoon. Throughout the day temperatures will not change much with afternoon highs struggling to reach 70.

Overnight European model data showing a low pressure system moving through the Mid-South Wednesday (4/22) through Thursday (4/23). (PivotalWeather.com) 

Friday

Skies will begin to partially clear and winds will calm Thursday evening. Overnight lows will fall back into the mid-60s. Into Friday, clouds will be on the increase as another system approach from the Plains. Warmer temperatures return to the region with highs in the mid-70s as winds become southerly once more. Showers will be isolated at first Friday afternoon but become increasingly more widespread by Friday evening. Overnight, showers and thunderstorms associate with the second cold front will push through the area. Some of these storms may be on the stronger side producing hail, gusty winds, and heavy downpours. The greatest chance for a strong storm during Friday’s event will be south of the city.

European Model 6:00am run showing a second low pressure system moving through the southeast Friday (4/24) into Saturday (4/23) morning. (PivotalWeather.com)

Saturday thru Monday

Saturday will start off as another dreary day as clouds and isolated showers linger in the morning, however, throughout the day the moisture will move out of the area giving us a mostly dry afternoon. Highs will stay cool struggling to reach 70, but thankfully mostly of us will see at least some sunshine by Saturday afternoon. Overnight lows will be on the chillier side as they fall back down near 50. Sunday looks to be very pleasant with partly cloudy skies and highs continuing to stay cool in the upper 60s. We stay dry with a mix of sun and clouds into Monday with afternoon highs warming back into the lower 70s. If you are planning on doing yard work Sunday and Monday will be your best option!

Tuesday and Wednesday

The models are suggesting that another upper level trough will move through the area early next week initiating yet another round of showers and thunderstorms. They are struggling to come into agreement over when exactly it will come through, but Tuesday into Wednesday seems to be our best chance. Clouds and rain chances will increase throughout Tuesday bringing more heavy rain and gusty winds. Tuesday afternoon will be warm and muggy with highs warming back into the mid-70s. Most of the shower and storm activity should move out of the area early Wednesday morning giving us a mostly pleasant afternoon with decreasing clouds and highs in the mid-70s.

The European model showing temperatures and wind from Monday (4/27)  night at midnight through Wednesday (4/29) night at midnight. (PivotalWeather.com)

Allison Paige
MWN Meteorologist Intern

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