A spring weekend, but June means summer! Parting words from #TeamMWN intern Caroline

An upper level low pressure system trapped in the upper flow to our west the past few days has resulted in scattered showers and thunderstorms, somewhat more muggy air, and near average temperatures. That low pressure area will finally move through the Mid-South over the next 24 hours as an accompanying cold front moves through. That leads to what should be a very pleasant weekend before summer heat builds.

Thursday-Friday

As the upper low moves over the Mid-South, expect another uptick in thunderstorm activity this afternoon again with a few strong storms possible mainly south of I-40. Gusty wind and small hail are possible in a Marginal Risk area over north MS into southern west TN. Storms will diminish into the evening but a lingering chance of a few showers remains overnight with the presence of the low.

A Marginal Risk (level 1) of severe weather exists mainly for locations south of I-40 today. The more likely area for scattered severe storms is southeast of the metro. (SPC)

On Friday, a cold front moves through, but with slightly less upper level support and atmospheric moisture, the risk of rain (and even thunderstorms) will be lower. Some pop-up showers or a thunderstorm will be possible but rain chances drop to about 30% from 50-60% Thursday as wind shifts north and highs reach 80. Skies clear early Friday evening, beginning a lengthy dry spell.

An upper level (500mb, or 18,000') low over the Mid-South Thursday morning (represented by a valley in the pressure pattern) shifts east and is replaced by a ridge of high pressure by late in the weekend (represented by a "hill" in the pattern). Model data is Wednesday night's European model. (Pivotal Weather)

Saturday-Monday

High pressure will build south from Canada into the Ohio Valley, pushing drier and cooler air into the Mid-South. This setup is perfect for a gorgeous late May weekend with abundant sunshine, a dry northeast breeze, and below average temperatures. Highs will likely be right around 80 degrees with cool morning lows near 60. If you want one last spring weekend before summer really sets in, this is it!

Tuesday-Friday

As the high to our north shifts to the east and re-establishes itself over the western Atlantic and southeast U.S., wind flow shifts to the south bringing in warmer air. A high pressure ridge aloft will also build in from the west, which will suppress rain chances and result in summertime temperatures as we change the calendar to June. Starting Tuesday, high temperatures climb near or above the 90 degree mark for most of the rest of the week with enough low-level moisture in the air (elevated dewpoints) to keep morning lows at or above 70. 

A quick transition to summertime temperatures arrives next week, according to the NWS NBM model. (WeatherModels.com)

There are hints of a slight weakness in the upper ridge late in the week which would allow for a few showers or thunderstorms, but that is questionable a week out. What we do know is next week will feel like summer, so get those pools ready!

Parting words from an MWN intern

As things go around here, we occasionally have to say good-bye to team members, just as we welcome new ones into the fold. With May ending this weekend, we bid farewell to Caroline Sleeper. Caroline came on a year ago as she was just getting started in her core meteorology classes at Mississippi State as a rising Junior. Here are a few words from her:

I have had the great pleasure of being a part of the MWN team for the past year, and the experiences I have had in this time are invaluable. Thank you so much to Erik especially for giving me this opportunity. You’ve become a mentor to me and have helped me discover what my passions are in the field of meteorology. I have learned so much through this internship that cannot be taught in the classroom. I grew up coming to Memphis (small town Mississippi life) and it has been a joy to help forecast for an area I’ve come to know and love so much. Thank you, Memphians, for all of your support this year! I’ll be in town for some barbecue and shopping soon.

Sincerely, Caroline Sleeper (CS), MWN Intern

Caroline heads into her Senior year having learned a great deal this past year. It's been an absolute pleasure to have witnessed her growth and contributions over the past year. I selfishly wish we could keep her on #TeamMWN for one more year! But with a heavy class load and  preparation for grad school among many other contributions she makes to campus life in Starkville, we must send her on and wish her well! 

Thank you Caroline for being an invaluable part of the team and for serving the residents of the Mid-South so faithfully! You have a very bright future ahead of you and we all wish you the best as you become another rising star in the field of meteorology!

Erik Proseus
MWN Meteorologist

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