November warmth continues this weekend, but how does Thanksgiving look?

Gorgeous fall weather has been with us much of this week as temperatures have been above average for a few days with dry conditions since Sunday morning's frontal system and brief downpours. As we look towards Thanksgiving and the remaining days of November, can we expect the unseasonably warm weather to continue? And what about rain chances for the holiday?

This weekend

Out next frontal system is still about 48 hours away, but clouds will begin to move in ahead of it tonight into Saturday, shielding the sunshine we've enjoyed this week. However, warmer and moister air will continue to filter in on a southerly breeze, so expect mild overnight conditions tonight with lows in the 50s and warm weather for Saturday with highs near 70 once again. If you are one of the lucky ones with tickets to the Tigers football game Saturday afternoon, here's your Senior Day forecast:

By Sunday, the front moves through and rain chances increase. We'll see scattered showers during the day. Models are still honing in on most likely timing, but it appears best rain chances may be in the morning to early afternoon hours. By late afternoon and evening, we should be dry, but a north wind will make for good weather for the fire pit! After morning lows in the mid 50s, we'll top out in the low 60s before temperatures fall in the afternoon. Rain chances are in the 50-60% range but could climb a bit more as we draw closer. No major deluges are expected with totals in the quarter-inch range.

An early look at what radar might look like from Saturday night at midnight through 6pm Sunday, based on the NAM3 model. Scattered showers are the most likely form of precipitation, ending by mid afternoon. (WxBell)

Early Thanksgiving week

Once the front clears out Sunday evening, we'll be looking at a mix of sun and clouds to start next week with much cooler air in place. Morning lows Monday will be in the lower 40s and highs only in the mid 50s, a bit below average for this time of year. Tuesday will see a return of some warmer air as the weather pattern becomes more progressive and the next system moves our way Tuesday night. Mostly dry though during the daytime hours Tuesday with highs back into the 60s.  Rain appears likely from a more potent and wetter system Tuesday night into Wednesday. A few thunderstorms are even possible and rainfall will be heavier at times than Sunday, but it should move out by the back half of Wednesday. Temperatures will be similar to Tuesday.

An early look at mid-week precipitation totals from the European model. An inch or more is possible in the Memphis metro. (WxBell)

Thanksgiving forecast

If you are hoping (and planning) to spend time outdoors for Thanksgiving, conditions at this time appear to be fairly good with slightly above average temperatures continuing for Turkey Day and into the following weekend (mid 60s for afternoon highs, upper 40s for early morning lows). Dry weather looks to be on tap with the next frontal system not expected until at least Friday and possibly Saturday. I think it is safe to make your plans accordingly, but keep an eye on the MWN Forecast and our social media feeds (linked below) in case the mid-week system slows down or the late week front speeds up!

Erik Proseus
MWN Meteorologist

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