Chilly nights, nice warm afternoons - fall is finally here!

If you’ve been tired of the summerlike heat, I’m sure you really enjoyed this past weekend! The good news is that nice weather looks to be sticking around all through the week ahead. The longer, chilly nights, and shorter, cooler days will also help to accelerate the changing colors of the foliage. Peak fall colors are not far away now! 

Nice and cool to start off the week

The gorgeous weather of the weekend looks to continue right on into the new work week. We’ll have a chilly start Monday morning in the low to mid 40s, with some upper 30s possible once again in rural areas. In fact, a Frost Advisory is in effect for much of west TN except counties bordering the Mississippi River. So Fayette County could see temperatures into the upper 30s with patchy frost.

A Frost Advisory (blue) is in effect for Fayette County in the metro tonight.

We’ll warm up nicely in the afternoon into the low 70s under mostly sunny skies. A deck of clouds looks like it will slide just south of the immediate metro tomorrow afternoon, and for the south side of town and our MS counties we could see a bit more in the way of afternoon cloud cover. Otherwise, expect a mainly sunny day. Any clouds should quickly clear off for Monday night, letting our temperatures fall into the mid to upper 40s. 

Slightly warmer/more humid with a chance of showers mid-week

Tuesday begins a warming trend that looks to continue through Thursday. Tuesday we top out in the mid 70s under mostly sunny skies, although we could see a few high level clouds throughout the day. Wednesday looks to be the warmest and also the most humid day of the forecast, with a high approaching 80 degrees in the afternoon and a south breeze bringing in modified Gulf moisture once again. Don’t worry fall-lovers! The return of the humidity will be very brief and it won't be quite as high as it was last week. Another trough (dip in the jet stream that tends to bring cooler temperatures) will help to cool us back down and dry us out. 

Dewpoints on Thursday morning as predicted by the European model. A sharp drop in dewpoints is expected behind a cold front which will push through early Thursday. (WeatherBell)

As we head into Wednesday night, an approaching cold front will increase chances of showers. Any showers should be fairly light in nature and won’t last long. These will taper off by early Thursday morning with rain amounts looking fairly minimal, up to a tenth of an inch possible. 

The GFS model rainfall amounts for Wednesday night ahead of a cold front. Since the front arrives early Thursday morning, it will have very little warm air to work with to pop up heavy downpours. Rain amounts look very light. (WeatherBell)

After showers end, winds will shift out of the northwest once again and will usher back in much more comfortable dewpoints and temperatures. An upper level trough over the east central US will help to keep the nice weather around through the weekend.

An upper level trough over the central and eastern U.S. as shown by the Euro model on Saturday. This keeps us nice and cool for next weekend! (WeatherBell)

Beautiful fall weather returns to end the week

Thursday looks very nice and dry once again, with skies clearing throughout the day and a high in the mid 70s. Lows take a tumble back into the low 50s or upper 40s for Thursday night. Friday and Saturday’s forecasts look nearly identical, with highs in the low 70s and lots of sunshine and dry air. Lows will be in the upper 40s to right around 50 degrees. A warming trend looks to begin again by Sunday, with highs in the mid 70s and lows in the low to mid 50s. Get out and enjoy the nice week of weather! Very few entire weeks during the year have a forecast this pleasant!

(Too-)Early Halloween outlook

As of right now, it’s looking like Halloween will feature above average temperatures. However, the average high on Halloween is only 69 degrees, so above average shouldn’t be too bad! We’ll be able to fine-tune the Halloween forecast as we get a bit closer.

The temperature outlook for Halloween week with odds favoring a warmer than normal week. (NWS/CPC)

Christian Bridges
MWN Intern

Farewell to an MWN intern

[Editor's Note] At the end of this week, we will bid adieu to #TeamMWN intern Margo Altshuler, who started with MWN just over a year ago. Margo has been a dedicated addition to the team and has used the opportunity to learn and grow, besides serving you all well on our Facebook and Twitter channels. I am sad to see her depart, but she's working hard to start lining up post-graduate opportunities and finish off her senior year in Broadcast Meteorology at Mississippi State strong! Thank you Margo for allowing me the pleasure to know you and help you on your journey! #HailState /EP

Here are a few remarks from her:

Dear MWN readers, I would like to take a moment and thank you all for allowing me to give the Memphis metro the weather for now 13 months. These past 13 months have gone by so quick its hard to remember what it was like when I first began. I would like to thank my co-workers for helping me when I needed a hand and for just being some of my now closest friends. I would like to especially thank Erik for giving me this wonderful opportunity to be one of his interns. He has helped me grow so much and helped increase my knowledge in meteorology. He is an amazing mentor and very charismatic for the city of Memphis, and I would not have wanted anyone else as a boss. Thank you MWN for everything! /MA

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