Thanksgiving Week forecast: one wet day - guess which one?

I hope you took advantage of a couple of days in the 70s earlier this week, because the atmospheric patter has definitely shifted back to providing a mid-fall feel. In addition to cooler temperatures overall, regular frontal passages will mean a swings in temperatures typically associated with fall - mid 60s one day and upper 40s a couple days later and morning lows that vary from sub-freezing to mild. 

This weekend

Today brings us weather more on the "mild" side as southerly flow pushes the mercury up into the low 60s. However, the next front is just around the corner and will bring our next round of rain on Sunday. Low chances start the day, but by lunchtime, rain is likely to be "likely" and will linger into the afternoon hours. 

The Saturday morning run of the HRRR forecast radar product provides this clue on timing for Sunday's rainfall. Loop starts at 4am and ends at 10pm. (WeatherBell)

Thunder is not expected, so the severe threat is also nil. Rain tapers off by late afternoon, leaving behind 0.25-0.50" of accumulation. The blanket of clouds arriving with the system will keep lows mild overnight tonight (near 50) but also hold them in check on Sunday, remaining in the 50s all day.

Total rainfall from Sunday's front will likely be between 0.25-0.50" for most of us, as shown by the NWS official NDFD forecast. (WeatherBell)

Early Thanksgiving week - sunny and cold

As skies clear quickly Sunday night, we will see temperatures fall into the upper 30s but with a breezy north wind, it'll be quite chilly Monday morning as you get up to start a (hopefully) short week! A few clouds will move in by Monday, but overall the sunshine will be offset by cold air pouring in behind the departing Sunday system on north wind, holding high temperatures below 50 degrees for highs. Keep the coat on as some of the coldest air of the fall settles into the region!

The upper air pattern at about 18,000 feet on Monday (as forecast by the European model) depicts a large ridge of high pressure in the western U.S. and a large trough of low pressure in the east. Colors represent departures from "normal" pressure values. The blues are indicative of cooler than average temperatures. (WeatheBell)

Tuesday morning will be the coldest of the week with lows in the 20s outside the city and near 30 where concrete acreage outstrips dormant grass. The airport still has not reached the freezing mark yet even though surrounding areas have; this might be the day the growing season officially ends. (We're now over a week behind the "typical" first freeze in Memphis.) Look for sunny skies for the rest of the day with a bit of afternoon warming as high reach the mid 50s. 

Wednesday is a transition from the cold dome early in the week to the next approaching front. High clouds are likely but temperatures will be milder as wind shifts southerly. Lows will be near 40 and highs near 60. Not bad for last minute trips to the grocery!

Thanksgiving Day weather - wet

Unfortunately, as the blog title suggests, there will be one wet day this week, and it appears to be on the holiday itself! Weather models have been having a bit of a challenging time determining the evolution of the mid-week system, but seem to be getting their act together. 

The Saturday morning GFS model (which is fairly well aligned with the European model) for Wednesday afternoon through Friday evening, shows a round of rainfall moving through on Thursday. Rainfall should be be excessive and thunder is low probability as well. Friday currently looks dry. (WeatherBell)

The good news is the rain likely won't linger more than a day, as previously thought, nor will it be quite cold enough for wintry shenanigans. The bad news is, if your house is full, the back patio won't be a great option with a chilly rain falling. Temperatures will generally be in the lower half of the 50s. 

We'll provide more detail on our social media feeds as the day approaches, perhaps with some dry hours to start or end the day, but for now that level of detail is about as fuzzy as leftover turkey in early December. Provided Thursday's rain moves out in good order, Christmas shopping season kicks off with seasonal conditions and dry skies Friday and Saturday.

Erik Proseus
MWN Meteorologist

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Magnitude 4.0 earthquake felt in Memphis metro

While the New Madrid seismic zone is known to produce literally hundreds of micro-quakes each year, it is rare that any are felt noticeably throughout the Memphis metro. However, on Wednesday night at 8:53pm, the New Madrid fault produced what we believe to be the strongest earthquake in 16 years, a magnitude 4.0 tremor that was centered deep in the earth's crust just northwest of  Poplar Bluff, MO. 

A seismograph from  Lake Charles, AR clearly recorded the motion of the earthquake. (USGS)

While certainly not as strong as the quakes that caused the Mississippi River to "flow backwards" in the winter of 1811-1812, reports were quickly received of jolts and rumbles across the metro. The last time a quake this strong occurred on the New Madrid fault was May 1, 2005, a magnitude 4.2 centered near Manila, AR, east of Jonesboro. 

The community-based "shake map" clearly shows the earthquake was felt over a large area. (USGS) 

More information on the earthquake, as well as a page that allows you to report if you felt it, can be found on the event page from the U.S. Geologic Survey. So while it was a noticeable event for many in the metro, it is a reminder that we live on the southern edge of an active fault and should be prepared, just in case. This time, we're simply glad that it wasn't any worse... and hoping it is not a pre-shock to "the big one."

Erik Proseus
MWN Meteorologist

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Warming conditions to start the week, but much cooler to end it

After a period of chilly weather this weekend, warm weather will make a return to the Mid-South during the first half of the upcoming week. Warm, moist air flowing north into the area from the Gulf will allow our temperatures to warm up Tuesday and Wednesday, with a cold front bringing rain Wednesday night. The front will usher in cooler air for the latter part of the week, once again sending high and low temperatures back below average. Things look to stay cool for next weekend, with another rain chance possible on Sunday.

Pleasant Monday 

Monday will start off chilly, with temperatures in the upper 30s in urban areas and in the mid 30s for more rural locations. Sunshine and dry air will remain in place, and Monday looks to be a beautiful day to get outside! Highs will top out in the mid 60s with a south wind around 10 mph. The breeze from the south will start the process of bringing in more moisture to the region, so Monday night looks about 15-20 degrees warmer than Sunday night. Lows will only drop into the mid 50s - about where our highs were to end this past week - with skies staying mostly clear.

Tuesday and Wednesday warmup

Southerly flow ahead of the front continues into Tuesday, with much warmer afternoon temperatures. With more moisture in the air (dewpoints rise from near 40 Monday to the mid to upper 50s Tuesday), cloud cover will increase into Tuesday afternoon, with partly cloudy skies. Highs will reach the mid 70s across the Mid-South, a good ten degrees above average, making for a very pleasant day despite increasing wind gusts. Another mild night is in store for Tuesday night as the southerly breeze continues, with lows only dropping into the upper 50s under clear skies. 

Well above average temperatures are likely ahead of the cold front Wednesday night. Highs on Wednesday afternoon will be 10-15 degrees above average! American (GFS) model temperature departures from normal shown. (WeatherBell)

Wednesday looks a touch warmer with sunshine to start the day but more clouds by afternoon. Gusty south wind to 25-30 mph will help push highs into the mid 70s area-wide, with a few locations possibly reaching the upper 70s. A stray shower or two is not out of the question by early Wednesday evening as the front approaches the area. 

Wednesday night cold front; much cooler Thursday and Friday 

The front pushes into the Memphis area by Wednesday night, with most of the rain from the front falling during the overnight hours. There is some model disagreement on how much rain we see out of this system, with the GFS (American) model showing around or just above a quarter of an inch and the ECMWF (European) model showing around a half an inch of rain. At this time, a quarter to a half inch of rain would be a good bet for Wednesday night. With a rainfall deficit of over an inch for both the month of November and the fall season, this system won’t help us erase those deficits very much. We can't completely rule out a thunderstorm, but this does not appear to be a severe weather night.

Rainfall amounts with the Wednesday night front don’t look overly impressive. Models show between 0.25-0.5” falling across the area. (NBM model/WeatherBell)

No official drought in the Memphis metro right now, but abnormally dry conditions are in place for areas generally along and west of the Mississippi River. (U.S. Drought Monitor)

Thursday starts out cloudy with a few lingering morning showers. We’ll likely record our high temperature for the day in the pre-dawn hours, when temperatures are hovering in the low 60s. After the front clears the area, much cooler air moves in for the rest of the day, with temperatures only in the mid 50s in the afternoon. Skies will begin to clear by the end of the day as the front pulls away. Clear skies and the return of drier air will allow for another chilly night Thursday night with lows dropping into the mid 30s across the Memphis area and frost possible for outlying, rural locations. Friday will have a mix of sun and clouds with cool temperatures in the mid 50s.

Weekend forecast

There is a bit of uncertainty with the timing of the weekend rain and next cold front. At this time, models agree that Saturday will likely be dry with partly sunny skies. A stray shower is possible by the evening hours and highs will top out near 60. Another cold front will approach the area Sunday or possibly early Monday. After waking up to temperatures in the mid 40s Sunday, rain chances increase with highs topping out around 60 degrees. Another cool airmass moves in to start Thanksgiving week.

Temperature outlook for the week of Thanksgiving. Looks like we may be shivering in the Mid-South for Turkey day! (NOAA/CPC)

Christian Bridges

MWN Intern

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Follow MWN on Facebook and Twitter for routine updates and the latest info!
Complete MWN Forecast: MemphisWeather.net on the mobile web or via the MWN mobile app
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October 2021 Climate Report for Memphis, TN

October Climate Recap

With October typically introducing the first cool air of the year, this month was a little less cool than might be expected. The first half of the month (15 days) were all above average temperature-wise with most days in the 80s for highs and 60s for lows. In fact, for the first 15 days of the month, the average temperature was seventh warmest on record. The pattern flipped on the 15th as a strong front moved through. After that front, only six days averaged above normal, with lows routinely in the 40s to low 50s. However, the month still ended 15th warmest in the 147-year record, weighted primarily by the low temperature averaging over 4 degrees above average.

A handful of wet days were spread out across the course of the month, including over an inch on the 2nd, nearly 2 inches on the 15th, and another 1.74" over the course of 5 days near the end of the month. For the month, precipitation totaled 0.80" above average. There was one marginally severe event during the month, a squall line that sparked a couple of Severe Thunderstorm Warnings and a Tornado Warning for far northwest MS. A funnel cloud was spotted southwest of Hughes, AR in St. Francis, AR, otherwise there were no severe weather reports in the metro. 

Memphis International Airport, Memphis, TN

Temperature 

Average temperature: 67.9 degrees (3.3 degrees above average) 

Average high temperature: 77.5 degrees (2.4 degrees above average) 

Average low temperature: 58.3 degrees (4.3 degrees above average) 

Warmest temperature: 87 degrees (8th, 13th) 

Coolest temperature: 45 degrees (31st) 

Heating Degrees Days: 71 (45 below average)

Cooling Degree Days: 166 (64 above average) 

Records set or tied: None

Comments: October's average temperature was 15th warmest on record (147 years).

Precipitation 

Monthly total: 4.78" (0.8" above average) 

Days with measurable precipitation: 10 (2.5 days above average) 

Wettest 24-hour period: 1.80" (15th) 

Snowfall: 0.0"

Records set or tied: None

Comments: None

Miscellaneous 

Peak wind: Northwest/40 mph (15th) 

Average wind: 7.4 mph 

Average relative humidity: 71% 

Average sky cover: 48% 

 Click here for a daily statistical recap for Memphis International Airport.

 

Cirrus Weather Solutions / MemphisWeather.net, Bartlett, TN

Temperature 

Average temperature: 66.0 degrees 

Average high temperature: 77.5 degrees 

Average low temperature: 56.1 degrees 

Warmest temperature: 88.8 degrees (8th) 

Coolest temperature: 40.9 degrees (17th) 

Comments: None 

Precipitation 

Monthly total: 3.03" (automated rain gauge), 3.37"(manual CoCoRaHS rain gauge) 

Days with measurable precipitation: 8

Wettest date: 0.88" (15th) (via automated gauge) 

Snowfall: 0.0"

Comments: Total rainfall in Bartlett was nearly 1.5" less than at the airport.

Miscellaneous 

Peak wind: South/27 mph (11th)

Average relative humidity: 81% 

Average barometric pressure: 29.94 in. Hg

Comments: None

Click here for a daily statistical recap for Bartlett, TN.

 

MWN Forecast Accuracy

MWN average temperature error: 1.64 degrees 

MWN forecast temperatures within 2 degrees of actual: 79% 

MWN average dewpoint error: 1.50 degrees 

MWN forecast dewpoints within 2 degrees of actual: 79% 

MWN's forecasts extend out five periods (2.5 days, or roughly 60 hours). Historical accuracy statistics can be found here.

 

Climate Outlook - November 2021

The November climate outlook for the United States from the Climate Prediction Center is shown below. Above average temperatures are forecast for the Great Lakes into New England, as well as much of the western U.S., particularly the Desert Southwest. Odds favor near average temperatures for Memphis over the course of the month. The average temperature for November is 52.7 degrees, twelve degrees below the October average.

Precipitation is expected to be above normal for the Great Lakes region and northeast, as well as the northwest U.S. and Great Basin. Below average precipitation is forecast for southern U.S. For Memphis, odds favor near average precipitation , which historically averages 4.69 inches in November.

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Follow MWN on Facebook and Twitter for routine updates and the latest info! 

Complete MWN Forecast: MemphisWeather.net on the mobile web or via the MWN mobile app 

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Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder

Cool start to November; first frost of the season likely this week

If you’re looking for an early start to winter, this week should be perfect for you! Well below average temperatures are expected for the week ahead. After today, we likely won’t see 60 degrees again until late in the weekend! Rain chances look to be highest on Wednesday with very chilly temperatures, before we clear out and begin a slow warming trend for the end of the week. Lows will also get quite chilly, many of us will likely see the first frost, or even freeze, of the season by the end of the week. No above average, or even average, temperatures in sight! 

The GEFS (American ensemble) model temperature anomaly for the next 7 days, ending next Tuesday. Well below average for the Mid-South and eastern U.S. as a whole! (WeatherBell)

Rain and winter temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday

Tuesday, expect a lot more cloud cover in the sky. We wake up to temperatures in the low to mid 40s and only make it to the mid 50s by the afternoon. Skies should stay cloudy for much of the day, with a few sprinkles possible as well. However, dry air will really limit how much rain we see, and raindrops will struggle to make it to the ground. The best moisture looks to pass us to the south for this rain event. Better moisture looks to move into the area later Tuesday night as an area of low pressure slides by to our south. Showers become more likely after midnight, and lows will dip into the low 40s. 

Models are in good agreement that this system will be fairly dry for the Memphis area, as the best moisture stays to our south. Rainfall totals look to be in the 0.10-0.25” range, according to the European ensemble model. (WeatherBell) 

Wednesday looks like a forecast for late December, not early November! It will be a bit of a rude awakening after such a warm October. On and off rain showers and drizzle will linger through the day Wednesday with highs only reaching the mid to upper 40s. With the best moisture with this system staying to our south, rainfall amounts will be fairly minimal, between a tenth and a quarter of an inch being most likely. We even may be talking about the ‘S’ word (yep, snow!) with this system -- although not for the Mid-South. (You thought we were talking about here weren't you??) 

Areas further east in the state of Tennessee, towards the Cumberland plateau, as well as the Ozarks of Arkansas could see some flakes on Wednesday and Wednesday night. 

Simulated radar from the GFS model for Wednesday afternoon shows an area of possible snow over the high elevations of AR with no accumulation expected. (WeatherBell)

Frosty nights, cool, clear days late week

We clear out Wednesday night, and we’ll wake up Thursday to full sunshine and a temperature right around 40 degrees. Highs will once again be well below normal, reaching only the low 50s in the afternoon. Clear skies, dry air, and light winds will allow our temperatures to plummet on Thursday night into the low to mid 30s. Widespread frost looks likely for most of us, so consider those outdoor plants as we head into the end of the week! 

Forecast low temperatures for Friday morning from the NWS. Outlying areas across west TN could see freezing temperatures and an end to the growing season. (WeatherBell)

Friday looks a bit warmer (but still well below average), reaching the mid 50s in the afternoon under sunny and clear skies. We get cold again for Friday night, with a freeze possible in outlying rural areas, and a widespread frost likely for the whole metro. Some more moderation of temperatures will occur over the weekend, with highs in the upper 50s Saturday with sunshine sticking around. Lows drop into the 30s again Saturday night, but should be a touch warmer, with only patchy frost possible across the metro. Sunday we should finally hit 60 again, still several degrees below average. By the beginning of the new work week, temperatures will return to the mid 60s with lows near 40 degrees

Christian Bridges

MWN Intern

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Follow MWN on Facebook and Twitter for routine updates and the latest info!
Complete MWN Forecast: MemphisWeather.net on the mobile web or via the MWN mobile app
Download our iPhone or Android apps, featuring StormWatch+ severe weather alerts!

MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador

Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder