MWN Blog: Cool start to November; first frost of the season likely this week

Monday, November 1, 2021

Cool start to November; first frost of the season likely this week

If you’re looking for an early start to winter, this week should be perfect for you! Well below average temperatures are expected for the week ahead. After today, we likely won’t see 60 degrees again until late in the weekend! Rain chances look to be highest on Wednesday with very chilly temperatures, before we clear out and begin a slow warming trend for the end of the week. Lows will also get quite chilly, many of us will likely see the first frost, or even freeze, of the season by the end of the week. No above average, or even average, temperatures in sight!

The GEFS (American ensemble) model temperature anomaly for the next 7 days, ending next Tuesday. Well below average for the Mid-South and eastern U.S. as a whole! (WeatherBell)

Rain and winter temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday

Tuesday, expect a lot more cloud cover in the sky. We wake up to temperatures in the low to mid 40s and only make it to the mid 50s by the afternoon. Skies should stay cloudy for much of the day, with a few sprinkles possible as well. However, dry air will really limit how much rain we see, and raindrops will struggle to make it to the ground. The best moisture looks to pass us to the south for this rain event. Better moisture looks to move into the area later Tuesday night as an area of low pressure slides by to our south. Showers become more likely after midnight, and lows will dip into the low 40s.

Models are in good agreement that this system will be fairly dry for the Memphis area, as the best moisture stays to our south. Rainfall totals look to be in the 0.10-0.25” range, according to the European ensemble model. (WeatherBell)

Wednesday looks like a forecast for late December, not early November! It will be a bit of a rude awakening after such a warm October. On and off rain showers and drizzle will linger through the day Wednesday with highs only reaching the mid to upper 40s. With the best moisture with this system staying to our south, rainfall amounts will be fairly minimal, between a tenth and a quarter of an inch being most likely. We even may be talking about the ‘S’ word (yep, snow!) with this system -- although not for the Mid-South. (You thought we were talking about here weren't you??)

Areas further east in the state of Tennessee, towards the Cumberland plateau, as well as the Ozarks of Arkansas could see some flakes on Wednesday and Wednesday night.

Simulated radar from the GFS model for Wednesday afternoon shows an area of possible snow over the high elevations of AR with no accumulation expected. (WeatherBell)

Frosty nights, cool, clear days late week

We clear out Wednesday night, and we’ll wake up Thursday to full sunshine and a temperature right around 40 degrees. Highs will once again be well below normal, reaching only the low 50s in the afternoon. Clear skies, dry air, and light winds will allow our temperatures to plummet on Thursday night into the low to mid 30s. Widespread frost looks likely for most of us, so consider those outdoor plants as we head into the end of the week!

Forecast low temperatures for Friday morning from the NWS. Outlying areas across west TN could see freezing temperatures and an end to the growing season. (WeatherBell)

Friday looks a bit warmer (but still well below average), reaching the mid 50s in the afternoon under sunny and clear skies. We get cold again for Friday night, with a freeze possible in outlying rural areas, and a widespread frost likely for the whole metro. Some more moderation of temperatures will occur over the weekend, with highs in the upper 50s Saturday with sunshine sticking around. Lows drop into the 30s again Saturday night, but should be a touch warmer, with only patchy frost possible across the metro. Sunday we should finally hit 60 again, still several degrees below average. By the beginning of the new work week, temperatures will return to the mid 60s with lows near 40 degrees

Christian Bridges

MWN Intern

----
Follow MWN on Facebook and Twitter for routine updates and the latest info!
Complete MWN Forecast: MemphisWeather.net on the mobile web or via the MWN mobile app
Download our iPhone or Android apps, featuring StormWatch+ severe weather alerts!