MWN Blog: Warming conditions to start the week, but much cooler to end it

After a period of chilly weather this weekend, warm weather will make a return to the Mid-South during the first half of the upcoming week. Warm, moist air flowing north into the area from the Gulf will allow our temperatures to warm up Tuesday and Wednesday, with a cold front bringing rain Wednesday night. The front will usher in cooler air for the latter part of the week, once again sending high and low temperatures back below average. Things look to stay cool for next weekend, with another rain chance possible on Sunday.

Pleasant Monday

Monday will start off chilly, with temperatures in the upper 30s in urban areas and in the mid 30s for more rural locations. Sunshine and dry air will remain in place, and Monday looks to be a beautiful day to get outside! Highs will top out in the mid 60s with a south wind around 10 mph. The breeze from the south will start the process of bringing in more moisture to the region, so Monday night looks about 15-20 degrees warmer than Sunday night. Lows will only drop into the mid 50s - about where our highs were to end this past week - with skies staying mostly clear.

Tuesday and Wednesday warmup

Southerly flow ahead of the front continues into Tuesday, with much warmer afternoon temperatures. With more moisture in the air (dewpoints rise from near 40 Monday to the mid to upper 50s Tuesday), cloud cover will increase into Tuesday afternoon, with partly cloudy skies. Highs will reach the mid 70s across the Mid-South, a good ten degrees above average, making for a very pleasant day despite increasing wind gusts. Another mild night is in store for Tuesday night as the southerly breeze continues, with lows only dropping into the upper 50s under clear skies.

Well above average temperatures are likely ahead of the cold front Wednesday night. Highs on Wednesday afternoon will be 10-15 degrees above average! American (GFS) model temperature departures from normal shown. (WeatherBell)

Wednesday looks a touch warmer with sunshine to start the day but more clouds by afternoon. Gusty south wind to 25-30 mph will help push highs into the mid 70s area-wide, with a few locations possibly reaching the upper 70s. A stray shower or two is not out of the question by early Wednesday evening as the front approaches the area.

Wednesday night cold front; much cooler Thursday and Friday

The front pushes into the Memphis area by Wednesday night, with most of the rain from the front falling during the overnight hours. There is some model disagreement on how much rain we see out of this system, with the GFS (American) model showing around or just above a quarter of an inch and the ECMWF (European) model showing around a half an inch of rain. At this time, a quarter to a half inch of rain would be a good bet for Wednesday night. With a rainfall deficit of over an inch for both the month of November and the fall season, this system won’t help us erase those deficits very much. We can't completely rule out a thunderstorm, but this does not appear to be a severe weather night.

Rainfall amounts with the Wednesday night front don’t look overly impressive. Models show between 0.25-0.5” falling across the area. (NBM model/WeatherBell)

No official drought in the Memphis metro right now, but abnormally dry conditions are in place for areas generally along and west of the Mississippi River. (U.S. Drought Monitor)

Thursday starts out cloudy with a few lingering morning showers. We’ll likely record our high temperature for the day in the pre-dawn hours, when temperatures are hovering in the low 60s. After the front clears the area, much cooler air moves in for the rest of the day, with temperatures only in the mid 50s in the afternoon. Skies will begin to clear by the end of the day as the front pulls away. Clear skies and the return of drier air will allow for another chilly night Thursday night with lows dropping into the mid 30s across the Memphis area and frost possible for outlying, rural locations. Friday will have a mix of sun and clouds with cool temperatures in the mid 50s.

Weekend forecast

There is a bit of uncertainty with the timing of the weekend rain and next cold front. At this time, models agree that Saturday will likely be dry with partly sunny skies. A stray shower is possible by the evening hours and highs will top out near 60. Another cold front will approach the area Sunday or possibly early Monday. After waking up to temperatures in the mid 40s Sunday, rain chances increase with highs topping out around 60 degrees. Another cool airmass moves in to start Thanksgiving week.

Temperature outlook for the week of Thanksgiving. Looks like we may be shivering in the Mid-South for Turkey day! (NOAA/CPC)

Christian Bridges

MWN Intern

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